Front cover image for Prediction or prophecy? : the boundaries of economic foreknowledge and their socio-political consequences

Prediction or prophecy? : the boundaries of economic foreknowledge and their socio-political consequences

Economic policy making matters to all of us. Economists are supposed to provide the necessary knowledge which enables policy makers to take effective economic policy decisions. Gregor Betz explores the following questions: " Where are the limits of economics, in particular the limits of economic foreknowledge? " Are macroeconomic forecasts credible predictions or mere prophecies and what would this imply for the way economic policy decisions are taken? " Is rational economic decision making possible without forecasting at all? Numerous case studies, drawn from economics and natural sciences, underpin the general argumentation
Thesis, Dissertation, English, 2006
Deutscher Universitäts-Verlag, Wiesbaden, 2006
dissertations
1 online resource (xiv, 280 pages) : illustrations
9783835090538, 3835090534
646750862
Assessing the predictive limits of economics
Recent performance of economic forecasts
A historical perspective on economic forecast performance
Forecast performance in natural sciences
Understanding the predictive limits of economics
Predictability of complex systems
The quality of data
Expectations and reflexiveness
Sensitive dependence on initial conditions
Experiment and simulation
Unrealistic-assumption explanations
Living with the predictive limits of economics
Consequences for traditional decision making
Rational decision making under uncertainty and ignorance
Post-normal science