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POPULATION STUDIES

PROBLEM 1

DETERMINING THE POSSIBLE RESIDENTIAL SATURATION OF A SUBURBAN COMMUNITY

Problem: Mifflin, N. K., is a community of approximately 14,000 people, suburban to a large metropolis. The area included within its present boundary limitations will for many years constitute the sole territory of the community, as it is entirely surrounded by water or by other equally well-established municipalities. A merger of these communities is only remotely possible. The school enrollment in Mifflin is growing rapidly; acute congestion has developed in the schoolhousing; and a new school building program should be launched. The superintendent of schools is desirous of presenting to the Board of Education a program which will consider the ultimate needs of Mifflin when complete residential saturation has been reached.

In ascertaining the residential saturation, the superintendent has utilized two methods and has based his work on the following assumptions:

1. The present zoning ordinance will continue in force.

2. The type of housing will undergo very few changes, as the suburb is sufficiently remote from the metropolis to attract only those who wish to live in single family homes.

3. Parks and other open spaces will be limited in amount because of the desire to keep all tax-producing properties on the tax roll and thus maintain low tax rates which will attract newcomers to live in Mifflin.

The large majority of the present residences are one-family, two-story homes. Fifty-foot lots predominate throughout the village. A substantial number of homes are built upon combinations of such lots or at least upon larger areas. Diagram 1 shows the location of all of the residences as they are

recorded in the tax collector's office. In this diagram are also shown the areas devoted to commercial and industrial development. The homes are indicated by black rectangles; the other developments by crosshatched areas.

On this diagram are also indicated the locations of the present elementary schools. In planning future schoolhousing, the important question to be raised is: "How many more homes can be built in Mifflin before the residential saturation point is reached?" In endeavoring to discover the saturation point, two methods were employed, one as a check against the other.

First Method. The number of linear feet on all the platted streets was secured and the frontage to be allowed each residence was thus determined. After considerable checking, it was found that an allowance of 60 feet of street frontage would be most expressive of the present situation. In determining the 60 feet, lot frontage as well as proper allowance for streets was included. The estimates of column 1 in Table 1 resulted from this method of determining saturation.

Second Method. The average area for all of the present residences was estimated. With proper allowance for both streets and lots, this was fixed at 8,000 square feet per residence. On this basis, the estimates appearing in column 2 of Table 1 were determined.

From an average of these two estimates, it appeared that approximately 9,800 houses might be erected within the pres

TABLE 1

ESTIMATE OF NUMBER OF RESIDENCES THAT CAN BE ACCOMMODATED IN THE VILLA ZONES OF THE SCHOOL DISTRICT

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