Kilowatt Hours

estimated to increase from 15.5 MWs to 19 MWs. Bethel accounts for approximately one-half of the energy usage in the region and 40 percent of power demand in the region, under either scenario.

DOT High Population Projection (Medium-High Growth Scenario)

This scenario combines the DOT High population growth projections with projected yearly per capita energy usage, derived for the medium growth scenario, to arrive at a regional load forecast. This scenario also assumes the Donlin mine project is not developed. System losses are estimated at 5% in all villages, including Bethel. Estimates of future energy requirements were derived by adding estimated energy losses to projected sales. Peak demand was then estimated by applying a 0.5 load factor in all villages except Bethel, where a 0.65 load factor was utilized.

Load Forecast with Donlin Creek Mine Development (High Growth Scenario)

This case scenario assumes development of the Donlin Creek Gold Mine project begins in the year 2007. Development would include construction at the mine site, and simultaneous construction of an 80 megawatt power plant in Bethel along with the construction of a transmission line to intertie Bethel to the mine site. Once fully operational in 2010, the mine will

Kilowatts

have a peak demand of 65 megawatts, with projected energy requirements of 512,460 Mwhs per year, which equates to a 0.95 load factor. Transmission line losses of 8% must be added to arrive at total mine requirements. Village requirements are added to the mine requirements to obtain a total load forecast for the region. Per capita power usage in villages located along the Bethel to Donlin Creek Mine transmission line corridor, and those located within a 30 mile radius of Bethel, are assumed to double over 1999 usage, up to a maximum of 400 kWhs per capita per month, by the end of study period. Per capita power usage in other villages in the region are projected to increase at medium growth scenario rates. Village system losses are estimated at 5% in all villages, including Bethel. Estimates, of future village energy requirements, were derived by adding estimated energy losses to projected sales. Peak demand in each village, as before, was estimated by applying a 0.5 load factor in all villages except Bethel, where a 0.65 load factor was utilized. The mine is anticipated to operate with a 0.95 load factor. Forecasted power demand, under this scenario, in the year 2020, is 94.7 MWs as compared to 26.1 MWs projected under the Medium Growth Scenario, where Donlin mine is not developed. Energy requirements soar to 658,917 Mwhs beginning in the year 2010, increasing to over 691,000 Mwhs in the year 2020.

It is clear, from reviewing Figures 7 and 8, that the Donlin Creek Gold mine will be the single largest user of electrical power and energy in the region.

Considerations and Limitations

The load projections, for Bethel and the forty-seven villages, are based primarily on historical trends in both population growth and per capita energy usage. The methodology selected for use in this study attempts to forecast future load requirements using the relationships that exist between population and energy usage. Donlin Creek mine power demand and energy requirement estimates were provided by Placer Dome, Inc.

The primary purpose of the load forecasting effort is to develop a long term projection of load requirements, to be used in evaluating various alternative plans, for supplying the future electrical energy and power needs of the region. Low, medium, medium-high and high growth scenarios are provided in an attempt to bracket the expected range of future load growth, but even these projections do not account for all possible load conditions that might be experienced. The projected load forecasts are not intended to provide a precise indication of future load conditions, but are only intended to provide an estimate of the magnitude of future load requirements, under which the various alternative plans can be compared.

Number

Data Obtained from the Alaska Department of Community and Economic Development - Alaska Community Profiles Database Community

Population History

Kasigluk

Kipnuk

Heating Methods

Median Income

Housholds

Average Persons

Percent

Percent

Percent Lack

Percent

Bulk Fuel

Storage in

Gallons

Total Fuel

1990

1999 Oil

Wood

Other

Household

Family

Per Household

Unemployment

Lack Plumbing

Sewer/Septic

Lack Phone

Private

School

Village

Electric Co

Other Gov

Storage

12.7%

88.6%

88.6%

83.4%

67,500

169,000

26,750

76,500

0

339,750

338

67.2%

32.8%

0.0%

$13,571

$15,313

67

4.2

659

68.3%

31.7%

0.0%

$17,708

$23,250

4.5

26.8%

94.2%

94.2%

69.1%

0

132,000

4,000

117,029

164,000

417,029