Figure 14. Net effect of selected characteristics on graduation/percentage trained from annual total and cohort data in the 1994 school year

Figure 15. Net effect of selected characteristics on training-related placement from annual total and cohort data in the 1994 school year

The most dramatic difference between the results for the two data sets concerns the effect of enrollments of 300 or less on graduation/percentage trained. The effect of the estimate in the cohort data is one-third of that found in the annual total data. Part of the explanation for the difference has already been discussed the different time periods covered by the two data sets. The annual total data covers only one year. The cohort data may include three years or longer. During the longer time period, school characteristics that are related to outcomes can change: Enrollments may become larger or smaller, program length may change, the school may become more selective in the admission of ATB students. These changes could alter the relationships observed during individual school years between these characteristics and outcomes.

Having said this, it must be acknowledged that the estimates of the effect found for turnover of fulltime faculty were virtually identical in the two data sets. The magnitude of this effect in the annual total data was much larger than previous estimates. As discussed earlier, we feel these results are due to a few schools that in 1994 had unusually high rates of both turnover and withdrawals.

Figure 15 presents the three school characteristics found to have significant net effects on trainingrelated placement in both data sets. It is hard to come to any reasonable interpretation for the results of program length and default. The program length effect is negative in the annual total data and positive in the cohort data.

The explanation for the third characteristic is quite straight-forward and reasonable: it is harder to find related employment in areas with high rates of unemployment. For every one point increase in the unemployment rates for the areas where the schools and colleges are located, TRP decline by onehalf of a percentage point. The net effect of area unemployment rates was not shown as significant in Table 2 because information on these rates has only been collected for the past two school years.

It is surprising that the school characteristic found to have the strongest net effect on TRP in the annual total data (Table 2), school enrollments of 300 or less, was not significant in the cohort data. On the basis of only the 1994 school year, school size does not appear to be as powerful an influence on outcomes in the cohort data as it has proved to be in the annual total data.

The final section of the report compares the findings for the ACCSCT schools and colleges to those for similar postsecondary institutions.

Comparisons with Similar Programs

A review of available studies of postsecondary technical training (sources are listed in the Technical Notes) imply that schools and colleges accredited by ACCSCT graduate a higher percentage of their students than similar public institutions. Prior to the 1994 school year, we had less confidence in the validity of this statement. That is because the data from previous years were based on annual totals. These totals summarized the operations of schools for a given year, but they did not track students across school years.

In 1994, cohort data, similar to that used in most other studies, were also available. The cohort data traced students form initial enrollment to their status at the end of the cohort period. The results from the cohort data indicate that the outcomes derived from the annual totals underestimated both the percentage of students graduating and the percentage withdrawing.

How could the measures used with annual totals underestimate both percentages? They could because graduation and withdrawal were calculated on different bases. The graduation rate was based on the number of students graduating as a percentage of the total graduating and withdrawing during the school year. The definition of graduation used with the annual total data was developed to allow for the students who neither graduated nor withdrew within one school year. In comparison to the rates found for the cohort data, the definitions used with the annual total data underestimated graduation by about 5 percent and withdrawal by about 10 percent. We attribute these higher figures to the more detailed tracking of students required for the cohort data.

The measures of related placement used to evaluate technical training typically report the number of graduates who obtain jobs that are related to their training as a percentage of the number available for employment. By this measure, the rate at which ACCSCT schools place their graduates appears to be about the same or slightly lower than those at public institutions. If however, Commission accredited schools graduate more of their students, and about the same percentage obtain related employment, these students are being better served than are those at public institutions. This is a surprising finding given that the ACCSCT schools enroll proportionally more high school dropouts, minorities, and economically disadvantaged students.

In summary, this report shows that Commission accredited schools and colleges graduated over twothirds of their students and that over three-fourths of these graduates obtained employment that was related to their training. Other studies suggest that these outcomes compare very favorably with the results of technical training provided by comparable institutions.

Technical Notes

The data for this report came from annual reports which are submitted to the Accrediting Commission on a school year basis, defined as July 1 through June 30. The annual total data summarize school operation for the year, e.g., new enrollments, continuing students, re-entries, graduation, and withdrawals. The cohort data trace defined groups of students from initial enrollment until exit, either through graduation or withdrawal, for a specified time period. That period is one and one-half times (150 percent) the regularly scheduled length of the program.

Annual total data are available for the five school years from 1990 through 1994. The cohort data were collected for the first time during the 1994 school year.

Definition of Outcome Measures

Graduation Rates

Annual total data: Defining graduation as the number graduating divided by the number enrolled underestimates graduation rates, because many of the programs take two years to complete. The definition of graduation that was used is the number graduating divided by the number graduating plus the number withdrawing. This definition disregards the problem of continuing students for the current year. Some of these students graduate and some withdraw in the next school year and are included in the rate when they do so.

Cohort data: The measure comparable to graduation used with the cohort data was percentage trained. This is the number that graduated from a specified program, plus the number that withdrew for related employment divided by the number that initially enrolled in the program. These numbers are determined for a period one and one-half times the regularly scheduled length of the program.

Withdrawal Rates

Annual total data: Withdrawal rates were calculated by dividing the total number withdrawing during a school year by the total number enrolled during that school year. Because of continuing students and the definition of graduation rates adopted to allow for them, withdrawal rates are not simply the reverse of graduation rates. Since continuing students are not included in the calculation of graduation rates, graduation plus withdrawal rates do not sum to 100 percent. In each school year we have analyzed, about 40 to 45 percent of full-time and part-time students neither graduate nor withdraw. Instead they start during one school year and continue their studies into the next year. Consequently, not all the variables found to have a significant relationship with graduation have a similar reverse relationship with withdrawal.

Cohort data: Because the cohort data track a defined group of students, graduation plus withdrawal equal 100 percent. Students who do not graduate or withdraw because they obtained related employment within the defined cohort period are counted as withdrawals.

Training-Related Placement

Annual total data: Training-related placement (TRP) is a critical measure of the performance of schools and colleges whose primary mission is to teach specific occupation skills. We conducted some analyses using the definition of TRP approved by the US Department of Education. This definition allows students who withdraw for related employment to be included in both the numerator and denominator of the rate calculation. This appeared to us to be potentially biasing the rate in a positive direction so we calculated a separate rate that excluded those who withdrew from both the numerator and denominator.

The two rates differed very little. Entering the number who withdrew for related employment in both the numerator and denominator increased the TRP by only 1 percentage point. In the analysis presented in this report, therefore, we used the rate that included only those who graduated and were available for employment. this rate appeared to us to be less vulnerable to criticism that the calculation is biased in a positive direction.

To calculate TRP, we adjusted the number graduating by eliminating those who were unavailable for employment because they were continuing their education, entering the military, or had other documented reasons why they were not seeking employment, such as illness or pregnancy. The number excluded for these reasons has been consistent over the five years, averaging 8 to 9 percent of the total number of graduates.

Cohort data: The measure comparable to TRP in the cohort data is percentage placed. This measure is identical to TRP except it does include those who withdrew because they obtained related employment in both the numerator and denominator.

Default Rate

The default rates for the 1990 and 1991 analyses were obtained from reports prepared by the US Department of Education. These reports present the default rates for schools with 30 or more former students in default for the fiscal years that ended two years prior to the year the reports were issued. For 1992-1994, the default rates were obtained from the annual report forms filed by the schools, but these rates also were as reported by the US Department of Eduction for the fiscal year two years prior.