CHAPTER 2

SUMMARY STATISTICS

This chapter presents summary measures of the performance and characteristics of the accredited schools for the five school years from 1990 through 1994. The primary measures, presented in Table 2.1, are means and standard deviations. As was noted in Chapter 1, the standard deviation is a measure of the variability in the measures. Some of the standard deviations are quite high, reflecting a wide range of values across the schools on those measures. In a few cases, e.g., total enrollment, they are higher than the mean. This reflects the variation across the schools in the number of students reported. For full-time students, the range was from 0 to 2,987.

The outcome measures, however, do not vary as widely, because they are all percentages with a total range of 0 to 100. For the 1993 school outcome measures we calculated another indicator of variation in performance, interquartile ranges (IQR) and compared these values to those of the theoretical normal curve. These comparisons indicated that the distributions for the outcome measures are very close to those of a normal curve. In other words, the performance of the accredited schools was distributed along a continuum from highest to lowest in a manner that is very similar to the normal bell-shaped curve. This was true of all four of the measures of school performance.

The number of schools providing usable annual report data for the 1994 school year was 873, which is 47 fewer than in 1993. The number reporting in 1994 is a drop of 189 schools from the peak number of 1062 that reported in 1991. The number of schools reporting part-time enrollments has always been less than half of the number reporting full-time students, and the number of schools with part-time enrollments has dropped at a slightly faster rate than full-time schools.

Average full-time enrollment was one of the variables that showed the largest change from prior years. For the four years before 1994, average full-time enrollment has been quite consistent, with one small dip of about 10 students in 1991. This year's figure was 32 students below the lowest previous average, The average for part-time students was almost the same as last year, but both 1993 and 1994 part-time enrollments were about 20 fewer than the rates in earlier years.

Graduation and withdrawal rates in 1994 for both full-time and part-time students were similar to past years. Training-related placement rates for both full-time and part-time graduates were 2 percentage points higher than their best prior years. At least part of this increase is due to the later due date for the annual reports. This provided an additional three month for graduates to obtain related employment. Default rates were 1.3 percentage points lower in 1994 than in 1993, and 3.6 points lower than their peak in 1992

The percentage of Ability-To-Benefit (ATB) students continued its decline in 1994. Each year since 1990 the percentage of ATB students has declined about 1 to 3 percentage points. The percentage of ATB students in 1994 was 8.8, about half as many as in 1990.

% Ability to benefit,

full-time

% GED,

% H. S. Diploma,

16.9 19.6 14.6 21.5 13.1 16.8 10.3 14.3 8.8 part-time 13.8 18.3 14.4 21.4 11.1 16.7 8.9 16.1 6.4 10.7 full-time 11.5 9.4 11.7 9.6 11.9 14.3 11.2 8.5 11.6 9.7 part-time 10.2 10.5 10.5 11.0 10.6 12.0 11.3 13.4 10.2 full-time 54.5 21.7 57.4 20.4 56.1 20.7 59.4 part-time 56.1 23.3 54.0 24.2 55.1 24.0 57.6

12.8

12.1

19.4 59.7

22.8

24.7 59.7

28.0

% Prior postsecondary, full-time

The percentage of students receiving Pell grants showed a major drop, 6.5 percentage points, in 1994. From 1990 to 1992 the percentage of Pell recipients increased 6 percentage points. There was no change between 1992 and 1993, and now the percentage has returned to its 1990 level.

The previous two CETE reports have indicated that as the percentage of ATB students increases so do default rates, and as the percentage of Pell recipients increases graduation rates decline. Both of these variables are indicators of the percentage of students from disadvantaged backgrounds and reflect the difficulties of achieving success with these students. The 1994 findings suggest that schools may be conducting more rigorous screening of ATB and Pell applicants.

The average length of programs continues to increase. The average program in 1994 was four weeks longer than in 1993. Each year, except for 1992, the average length of program has increased over the prior year.

In the last two years, schools reported a higher proportion of part-time staff. For the first three years for which we have data, the ratio of full- to part-time staff was about 3 to 1. In 1993 and 1994, it was approximately 2 to 1. The number of full-time equivalent staff, however, has not declined. The average number of full-time equivalents in 1994 was 16, the highest in the five years, and the ratio of students to faculty was 24.9, the lowest in five years.

School Performance by Enrollment and Program Length

The tables in this section present a direct comparison of the performance of school with differing full-time enrollments and program lengths. These tables repeat analyses conducted for the first time with the 1993 data. The 1994 results are very similar to found for 1993.

For the enrollment comparison, we divided the schools into four groups, and for the program length comparison, we divided the schools into five groups. We then calculated the average outcomes for schools in each of these groups. The results are presented in Tables 2.2 and 2.3.

School with full-time enrollment of 300 or less clearly have more success retaining and graduating their students than larger schools. The differences are most pronounced between the smallest and largest schools, but there are even differences of 4 to 7 percentage points between the 300 or

less and the 301 to 600 schools. The smallest schools also place more of their students in related employment than the larger schools.

Program length has an even stronger influence on graduation and withdrawal than size of enrollment. Table 2.3 presents schools outcomes for five categories of average program length. Recall that average program length is based on the length of each program offered by a school weighted by the number of full-time students enrolled in each program. Schools in the shortest category have graduation rates 29 percentage points higher and withdrawal rates 9 percentage points lower than schools in the longest category. These differences are slightly less than those found in 1993, but the overall pattern is identical.

On training-related placement there is a difference of 7 percentage points between the schools with the shortest and longest average programs. There is no difference in related placement among the three program lengths between the shortest and longest.

On three of the four measures, longer programs have less desirable outcomes. As in 1993, however, schools with the longest average programs have the lowest default rates. We think the two possible explanations we advanced in 1993 are still valid. The first is that students who complete longer programs may obtain higher paying jobs and be better able to repay their loans. The second is that longer programs are more expensive and student loans pay a smaller