It will be noted that the total shipments in any one year are about 30 or 40 percent lower than the 12-month capacity. This is a characteristic of welded wire reinforcement industry that serves to limit production possibilities. Wire fabric and mesh are bulky products and large amounts cannot be stored by the manufacturer. In addition, some 20 different types of paving fabric and some 60 types of pipe mesh are commonly specified by the users, and the manufacturer cannot anticipate just which type will be ordered next. This adds to the difficulty of advance production. The use of wire reinforcement, especially in the North, is highly seasonal. Under current practices, therefore, the practical annual capacity must be based on an 8- or 9-month production year rather than on a 12-month production year. It is estimated therefore that the practical production capacity in 1956, without additional expansion, will be approximately 575,000 tons per year. It is estimated that approximately 99,000 tons of highway pavement reinforcement were used in 1954. Some 8,000 or 9,000 tons of this was bar mat. The rest-some 90,000 tons-was wire fabric. It is also estimated that 140,000 tons of mesh were used in the production of reinforced-concrete pipe. The remainder of the production, 195,000 tons, was used in building and other construction. The expanded highway program will require, sometime after 1959 or 1960, an additional 215,000 tons of paving reinforcement. It is estimated that about 200,000 tons of this will be wire fabric. It is also estimated that an additional 81,000 tons of wire mesh will be required in the manufacture of the culvert pipe required for the expanded program. It is estimated, therefore, that the expansion of the highway program will increase welded wire reinforcement consumption by 281,000 tons. As shown on the preceding table, the estimated 1954 welded wire reinforcement production amounted to 425,000 tons. Considering that other demands hold level, the total requirements during the peak program period will amount to 706,000 tons. As shown on the table, the 1956 production capacity will be 825,000 tons per year. When the expanded market becomes firm, it is expected that current producers will further increase capacity. It is also possible that some of the major steel producers that are not now producing welded-wire fabric will start production. If so, the 12-month capacity will be increased by at least another 200,000 tons by 1960. It is expected therefore that the total theoretical production capacity can be increased to approximately 1 million tons before the full expansion of the material requirements occurs. It must be kept in mind, however, that the practical capacity under existing conditions will be only 70 percent of this or 700,000 tons. However, concerted group action by the welded wire fabric producers, the highway engineers, and the contractors could effect a reduction in the production loss due to the seasonal characteristics of the market. Such group action should endeavor to (a) Reduce the present number of standard types of fabric ordered and thus reduce changeover time, decrease production costs, and increase off-season production. (b) Time contract lettings so that the contractors could purchase their pavement reinforcing and reinforced-concrete pipe during the slack winter season and store the material at the job site. This would reduce the differential between the practical and theoretical capacity of the industry, increase off-season production, and reduce production costs, In essence, it is expected that, even operating under current practices, the welded-wire fabric and mesh-reinforcement industry will have a production capacity at least equal to the peak requirements generated by the highway program. With some reduction in the seasonal characteristics of the industry which can be accomplished by the concerted action of all concerned, this capacity can be increased materially. With even a small increase in practical capacity, the peak requirements can be met with ease. STRUCTURAL STEEL FABRICATION It is estimated that the steel-fabrication industry, operating on its present schedule, can fabricate some 3,500,000 tons of steel per year. It is now operating at a rate of approximately 3,240,000 tons per year. Of the 3,240,000 tons fabricated, 2,536,000 tons were fabricated for other users. Highway fabrication amounted to only 704,000 tons. The expanded highway program will require an additional 1.7 million tons of fabricated steel. The fabricators should be able to handle 260,000 tons of this without material changes in personnel or working hours. An increase in working hours to two 8-hour shifts could of course add considerably to the present capacity, probably as much as 50 percent. This would raise the capacity to over 5 million tons per year or 1.8 million tons above the present level. It is also expected that the structural steel fabricators wil expand to some degree. This expansion will probably take place in those areas in which fabricating capacity is now short. This is ample capacity for the expanded highway program. The area requirements for highway-steel fabrication under the peak program are shown on the following table. Maximum annual requirements by regions—Fabrication capacity for $11 billion highway construction program Area: 1. New York and New England___ 626 Total requirements (1,000 tons) 2. New Jersey, Pennsylvania, District of Columbia, Maryland, Delaware, Puerto Rico__. 393 3. Southeast 233 4. Wisconsin, Michigan, Illinois, Indiana, Ohio, Kentucky-- 476 5. North Dakota, South Dakota, Minnesota, Nebraska, Iowa, Mis- 184 6. Texas, Oklahoma, Arkansas, Louisiana, New Mexico__ 197 223 41 Nationwide. 2,379 CULVERTS (1) Reinforced concrete pipe The American Concrete Pipe Association estimates that approximately 11 million tons of reinforced concrete pipe were produced in 1954. This production required about 14 million barrels of portland cement-and approximately 400,000 tons of steel. Sewer and culvert pipe took about half of the steel quantities or approximately 200,000 tons. Of this 200,000 tons of steel consumption, it is estimated that about 70 percent, or 140,000 tons, was wire mesh reinforcement. During 1954, when the total expenditures for highway construction were at an approximate $4 billion level, it is estimated that 17,680,000 linear feet of reinforced concrete pipe were put in place. Based on an average 24-inch-diameter pipe, this would amount to 2,333,760 tons, or about 21 percent of the 1954 tonnage. The maximum additional annual construction requirement for an expanded highway-construction program would occur in the fourth year of the program. At that time an additional 3,587,000 tons over and above the 1954 requirement would be needed, making a total highway construction requirement of 5,922,000 tons for that year. The maximum additional annual requirement of 3,587,000 tons of reinforced concrete pipe will generate a need for an additional 3,946,000 barrels of portland cement and 81,000 tons of reinforcing mesh. The concrete-pipe industry reports that it could expand its present production by 20 percent during the normal 8-hour shift and by 100 percent if work was placed on a 16-hour-per-day basis. It will require about a 33-percent increase in present production to meet the maximum expansion requirements. No additional plant expansion of major scope would be needed to achieve the increase in production that will result from an accelerated highway-construction program although additional steam-curing equipment may be needed. No regional shortages of pipe are anticipated because of manufacturing capacity. Temporary shortages in portland cement and wire mesh may slow up production in some areas. Shortages in the supply of these basic materials have previously occurred on a regional basis but, on the whole, the delays occasioned by these shortages have been minor in nature. Hot-rolled steel rods have been used as a substitute for wire mesh reinforcement during a shortage of the latter material. The industry operates on a year-long basis with no major shutdown of the plants located in the Northern States because of subfreezing temperatures. (2) Corrguated metal pipe From the best available information, it is estimated that 136,000 tons of corrugated metal pipe were used in highway construction during 1954. The maximum additional annual requirement for an expanded highway-construction program is estimated at 137,000 tons, making the maximum annual highway-construction requirement (including highway maintenance and other construction) about 273,000 tons. Since the corrugated metal pipe industry is now operating at a little over one-third of peak capacity, no difficulty is anticipated in supplying the additional quantity needed for an $11.0 billion highway program level. It is likely that any of the large producers are capable of supplying all of the additional requirements without plant expansion. Sheet was one of the few steel shapes that was in good supply during the more recent period of controlled materials. TRAFFIC SIGNS AND MARKINGS A report of this type would not be complete without some brief comments on traffic sign and marking materials and their prospective use during an accelerated highway-construction program. Nearly all traffic signs now used on the principal thoroughfares of the Nation are manufactured with reflective materials. Considerable quantities of traffic paints are also reflectorized. One of the results of modern-day highway standards is the elimination of the need for warning signs with the result that, under most circumstances, fewer signs are now required on newly finished projects than were required prior to the improvement. It does not follow, however, that fewer sign materials will be required since there is a trend toward the use of larger information and direction signs, particularly on expressway construction. When interchanges are provided to separate traffic flows, more traffic signs are often required than were previously needed when the intersecting routes crossed at grade. Suitable aluminum alloys have recently been developed that will permit the use of the thinner sheet material, without bracing, on the more common standardsize warning and regulatory signs. Aluminum sheet is also being widely used for large expressway signs. During 1954 two important revisions in sign standards were adopted by the Joint Committee on Uniform Traffic Control Devices along with many other changes. The revisions which will have the greatest effect on new highway construction involve the red stop sign and the introduction of the yield sign. It is estimated that some 330,000 signs and markers were placed on new highway-construction projects during 1954 when the total expenditures for construction were at a $4-billion level. During the fourth expansion year, when the $11 billion construction level is expected to be reached, requirements for new highway construction will pyramid to 908,000 signs and markers. Sign manufacturers and the manufacturers of basic sign materials have demonstrated their ability to produce under adverse supply conditions and will have no difficulty in furnishing the above maximum expansion requirements, while at the same time fully taking care of the much larger highway-maintenance needs. When adequate sight distances are built into our modern highways, the need for marking "no passing" zones with traffic paint is largely eliminated. At the same time, however, pavement markings will be required on many miles of highways not previously marked because of the constant increase in traffic. It has been estimated that over 5 million gallons of traffic paint are used annually to mark the Nation's streets and highways. While some of the high-grade paint pigments such as the titanium oxides were in short supply during the recent controlled-materials period, no difficulty is expected in providing an adequate supply of good quality traffic paint during the proposed expanded highway-construction program. OTHER MATERIALS As shown on chart No. 1, substantial quantities of lumber, timber piling, clay products, petroleum products, and explosives will be needed for the expanded highway-construction program. It is expected that all of these materials will be in good supply and that no unusual measures need to be taken by manufacturers to furnish peak requirements. Such items as paint, tires and tubes, nails, hardware, and other miscellaneous supplies should also be in good supply. FINDINGS 1. The maximum material use during the proposed 10-year highway-construction program will occur during and subsequent to the fourth year. The maximum demand therefore would not have to be met before 1959 or 1960. During the ensuing period the demand will increase at a gradual rate. This will give industry an opportunity to plan and, if necessary, expand production for the peak requirements. 2. Portland cement is one of the basic highway-construction materials. It might be in short supply, particularly in certain regions, if production is not expanded. The current highway-construction use of 50 million barrels of portland cement (exclusive of precast products such as culverts) will increase to 161 million in the fourth year and remain at that level throughout the remainder of the program period. Regional requirements in the New York-New England area and in the Michigan, Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky, and Wisconsin area would consume the entire current cement production capacity in these areas and leave no supply for other users. Although some increase in production is possible from present plant facilities and new plants having a 20-million-barrel production capacity are now planned, an additional 80 million barrels of production capacity will be needed for the peak years if the consumption by nonhighway users remains at present levels. Current indications are that the cement producers will increase production capacity to 407 million barrels per year by 1959. This would provide the cement necessary for the expanded highway program. 3. The production of aggregates could be increased by 324 million tons with relatively little expansion of existing facilities. Production at a higher rate will require the installation of additional equipment and the opening of additional quarries and pits. It is expected, however, that the equipment necessary for that expansion will be available and that the aggregate industry will expand to meet the anticipated requirements when a firm market is assured. 4. Present consumption of bituminous materials-asphalts, tars, and road oils is estimated at 18 million tons per year. The expansion of the highway program will increase consumption by 7 million tons. Existing production facilities with only minor expansion could increase production by 17 million tons per year. This is more than ample for any possible highway program. 5. Basic steel supply is not a problem. The structural steel supply, except for a slight shortage in wide-flange structural shapes, will be ample as soon as the 600,000-ton plant-expansion program now authorized is completed. The small shortage of wide-flange shapes will probably be overcome by additional expansion. The use of reinforcing steel, especially paving reinforcing, will be increased materially. It is expected that the steel industry will be able to supply the reinforcing bar without difficulty by conversion of existing facilities. Considerable expansion will however be necessary in the wire fabric, wire mesh, and bar mat areas. It is expected, however, that the steel industry will take the action necessary to meet the requirements as they become firm. 6. Steel fabrication capacity amounts to some 3.5 million tons. Considering that other demands remain level, the peak requirement during the expanded highway program will amount to 4.9 million tons. Through increases in working hours, it should be possible to increase production to 5 million tons per year. This, with some expansion in areas where capacity is short, will be more than ample for the expanded highway program. 7. Production capacity is now available to meet the expanded requirements of both reinforced concrete and corrugated metal pipe. Some additional steamcuring equipment may be needed for concrete pipe manufacture when the period of maximum requirements is reached. Regional shortages of portland cement and wire mesh might cause some curtailment in the manufacture of concrete pipe. However, the production capacity for both cement and wire mesh is being expanded and such delays, if they do occur, should be of short duration. No shortage is expected in the supply of sheet steel for corrugated metal pipe. Several of the large corrugated metal pipe producers have the capacity to furnish all of the additional requirement needed for an accelerated highway construction program. 8. Traffic signs and markers and the all-important reflective materials needed in their manufacture will be in good supply. |