IV.M.6.

Impacts on Fish and Commercial Fishery Resources

The high resource estimate scenario projects approximately twice the oil and gas expected for the mean case, or Alternative 1. As a result, the number of exploration, development, and production facilities will approximately double, as will the volume of drilling discharges.

Despite the doubling of the drilling discharges, current studies have indicated that the effects of drilling discharges in the open ocean are confined to an extremely localized area around the discharge point. Given the deepwater nature of the sale area, the dispersal and dispersion characteristics of the receiving waters should greatly restrict the impacts associated with drilling discharges.

As Tables 12, 13, 14 and C-1 (Appendix C) show, joint probabilities of the overall risks of an oil spill occurring and contacting areas of importance to fish and fishery resources approximately double for the high case scenario. Despite these increases, the joint probabilities are still extremely low. Probabilities of contacting coastal waters are less than 10 percent for all States. This seems to indicate that spills from the proposed sale area generally weather offshore or move away from shore (see Section IV.E.1). Because the exploration, development, and production facilities double under this scenario, the amount of space lost to fishing is also doubled. This means the total combined annual loss to fishermen would be approximately $45,000. If this figure is compared to 1982 mid-Atlantic landings, the percentage of the total catch lost would be about 2 percent.

Even though discharges and facilities provided for the high case scenario are approximately twice those anticipated for the proposal, the major risk to fishery resources still is associated with a major oil spill that contacts eggs and larvae and results in large early life stage mortalities. Important nearshore and coastal habitats do not show a high risk of being contacted by an oil spill from the sale area, as indicated by the oil spill model. Therefore, this major risk is not significantly increased under the high case scenario. Other impact-producing factors, such as drilling discharges and spatial preclusion resource estimate also are not expected to increase the magnitude of impact for the high scenario.

Conclusion:

Impacts on mid-Atlantic fish and fishery resources, in general, will be minor, with populations demonstrating local declines in abundance and/ or distribution, but recovering to their pre-impact condition within 1 year, and the populations, as a whole, are unaffected.

The types of impacts on coastal recreation and tourism resulting from visual effects, oil spills, and land use would be the same for the high resource scenario as for the proposed action (Alternative 1, see IV.E.8). However, the likelihood of oil spill occurrence and contact with coastal areas would increase. Based on the high resource estimate, OSRAM output indicates that the probability of a spill occurring and contacting any land in the area increases from 7 percent for the proposed action (mean case) to 15 percent for the high resource scenario, excluding existing leases and transportation (30-day period, 1,000 bbl or more; Appendix C, Tables 12 and 15). The probability of such a spill contacting recreational resources also increases--from 1 to 3 percent for national parks, seashores and recreation areas, from 2 to 6 percent for State parks, seashores and recreation areas, and from 2 to 4 percent for national wildlife refuges. Comparable increases occur for those land segments which face the highest likelihood of spill contact. However, in all cases these probabilities are 4 percent or less.

Under the high resource scenario, two rather than one pipeline landfalls are hypothesized. The potential for temporary removal of coastal land resources from recreational uses is thus increased. Impacts of pipeline landfalls on coastal recreation resources are analyzed in IV.E.8.

Conclusion: The impacts on coastal recreation and tourism resulting from the high resource scenario are expected to be minor. In the unlikely event of oil spills contacting coastal beaches, moderate impacts could be anticipated.

IV.M.8. Impacts on Land Use and Coastal Management

The mean resource estimate for the proposed action generates an hypothesized gas processing plant in either Monmouth County, New Jersey or New Castle, Delaware. These locations are analyzed in Section IV.E.9 of this EIS. Under the high resource estimate, the development scenario hypothesizes the construction of two plants, one in each of the locations mentioned above. The impacts on land use and the relationship to local plans and programs are the same as described in Section IV.E.9. In both locations, these impacts are minor and all development will adhere to all regulatory procedures, CZM programs, and State and local land-use plans. The implementation of two, rather than one, hypothesized processing plants and pipelines will not alter the level of impact to the region as a whole.

All other components of the development scenario for the high resource estimate are the same as those of the proposed action, mean case, producing only minor impacts on land use and coastal management.

Conclusion: Impacts on land use and coastal management are expected to be minor under the high resource estimate scenario.

IV.M.9. Impacts on Employment

It has been estimated that under the high resource scenario, economically recoverable resources would approximately double. Total employment increases are expected to increase roughly in direct proportion to increases in resources, although some economies of scale can be reasonably assumed so as to cause the increase in employment to be somewhat less than the increase in resources. The number of jobs created under the high resource estimate (both direct and secondary) would still represent less than 0.1 percent of the current regional employment level.

OCS-related employment in the Washington County, Rhode Island and Hampton Roads, Virginia (support base locations) is expected to peak in 1995 at between 1,000 and 1,100 under the high resource scenario. This represents less than 1 percent of the 1995 projected employment for Hampton Roads, Virginia and less than 2 percent of projected employment for Washington County, Rhode Island. Employment in the areas assumed to be locations of gas processing facilities will be the same as described under the mean scenario. Under the high resource estimate scenario, however, gas processing plants will be assumed in both New Castle County, Delaware and Monmouth County, New Jersey.

Conclusion: Employment increases related to the high resource estimate scenario would have only a negligible impact on the size and character of the region's labor force. Impacts at the local level would be minor.

IV.M.10. Impacts on Population

It is estimated that the regional population increase generated by OCS activity under the high resource estimate scenario will be between 3,000 and 3,500 persons in the peak year, 1997. This increase in population amounts to slightly more than 0.01 of 1 percent of the region's current and projected population. Population increases under this scenario would increase the 1995 projected population in Hampton Roads, Virginia and Washington County, Rhode Island (site of support bases) by less than 2 percent. Population increases in those localities assumed to be the site of OCS gas processing facilities would be the same as described in the proposed action (Alternative 1).

Conclusion: Impacts on population are expected to be negligible at the regional level and minor at the local level.

IV.M.11. Impacts on Community Infrastructure

Analysis of the estimated total new resident population growth figures and their average rate of growth relative to existing population levels, indicates that, even without local hiring, it would be highly unlikely that the study area as a whole would be subjected to growth in population that would strain its ability to provide adequate public or private services and facilities.

Conclusion: Impacts would be negligible. It is highly unlikely that the amount or rate of population growth projected would significantly strain regional or local abilities to provide adequate public and private services and facilities.

IV.M.12. Other Issues

a. Conflicts with NASA/DOD Activities

The proposed action will create a conflict between oil and gas activities and NASA activities associated with the Wallops Island Flight Facility, Wallops Island, Virginia. The Wallops Island NASA Warning Area, shown on Visual No. 5, delineates the minimum area that NASA feels must be kept free of all surface structures. The portion of the warning area that is included in the proposed action (65 blocks) represents less than 2 percent of the sale area. Based on the resource estimates and the production schedule for this scenario, it is estimated that only one exploratory rig would be in the surfacefree zone at any time. If commercial amounts of oil and gas are found in the area, production could be from subsea completions which would not interfere with NASA activities. Any vessel or structure within this area would be subject to the remote possibility of being damaged by falling debris resulting from both sucessful and unsuccessful rocket and missile launches. If a rig or platform were damaged by debris from a rocket or missile, accidental release of hydrocarbons could occur if wells and other equipment were not shut in. The shutting in of wells and other equipment during each launch would appear to be impractical due to the frequency of launches (approximately 20 per month).

Conclusion: A minor level of conflict is anticipated between OCS oil and gas activity and NASA activities for the high resource estimate scenario.

There is a potential interaction of oil and gas activities with ocean dumping in that oil and gas exploration or production operations may: (1) present a use conflict in the designated dumpsite areas; (2) disturb the dumpsite bottom (seafloor) resulting in water quality contamination or contact with hazardous materials (e.g. undetonated explosives, chemical munitions, radioactive materials); or (3) cause water quality degradation as a result of synergistic interaction of operational discharges with ocean-dumped waste. However, since the extent of the lease area under the high resource estimate scenario remains the same as for the mean resource (Alternative 1), the magnitude of the potential interaction of oil and gas activities with ocean dumping remains essentially unchanged. These potential interactions are expected to result in resolvable conflicts in usage of the area, minor impacts to water quality, and highly improbable contact with hazardous materials.

Conclusion: Impacts on ocean dumping from oil and gas operations would be minor for the high resource estimate scenario.

IV.N. Low Resource Estimate Scenario

Recoverable resources under the low resources scenario are estimated at 48 mmbbl of oil and 0.98 tcf of gas. Because of the relatively low resource estimates it is assumed development would take place only in conjunction with development of currently leased blocks. Exploration under the low resource scenario would begin in 1987 and continue through 1991 with a total of 17 exploratory and delineation wells being drilled. Production of oil would begin in 1995 and peak the following year at approximately 14,000 bbl/d. Daily production would fall to under 10,000 bbl/d in the year 2001. Gas production would begin in 1998 and peak the following year at approximately 0.3 bcf/d. It is estimated that two surface production platforms with a total of 18 wells would be adequate for the amount of oil and gas produced under the low resource scenario.

Oil produced under the low resource scenario would be loaded onto tankers directly from the platforms and transported to refineries on either the Raritan or Delaware Bays. The projected annual production of gas under the low resource scenario even when added to gas production from currently leased blocks would most likely be too low to justify the cost of a pipeline and processing plant.

Operations Support Base: It is assumed that the current support base in Washington County, Rhode Island would be used under the low resource scenario.

Pipecoating and Platform Fabrication: All pipecoating and platform fabrication could be provided by existing facilities outside of the mid-Atlantic region.

Summary of Environmental Effects: The effect on the environment, if development of the low resource estimate occurs, would be a reduction in the estimate levels of impact discussed under the proposed action. Impacts on water quality, plankton, benthos, and fishery resources would decline because no gas pipeline would be needed during the production phase. The reduction in the number of wells and platforms would reduce conflicts with commercial fishermen. Because of the relatively low resource estimate, in order to be economical, it is assumed that development and production would take place in a centralized location. This would reduce the risk of an oil spill occurring and affecting the environment. It would also reduce the amount of exposure that fish stocks, sea birds, and marine mammals and sea turtles would have to platforms and their discharges. If the oil and gas resources were not found to be economical to develop and produce, the levels of impact would be based on exploration activities only and would range from minor to none.