planning area will remain the same and will continue to pose a threat to biological systems and species, recreational areas, and sensitive coastal areas. The Commonwealth of Virginia is in the process of preparing a Coastal Zone Management Plan and a delay of the sale would provide additional time to prepare the document, to obtain Federal approval, and to assess onshore impacts relating to OCS activities. Land-use conflicts could increase if available and suitable coastal land for onshore facilities is acquired for other purposes during the delay period. The delay would provide additional time for the development--particularly in deeper water--of improved technology, improved resource recovery, and safer operations, thereby reducing environmental risk while increasing production capacity. Conclusion: If alternative 2 is adopted, impacts identified in the proposed action would not be avoided, but would be delayed. Some proposed impacts may be mitigated, reduced, or redefined based on additional information collected during the delay period. Under the cancel the sale alternative, all impacts associated with the proposed action (Section IV.E.) would be eliminated. However, it is anticipated that another mid-Atlantic lease sale would be offered approximately 2 years after the present Sale No. 111. Also, there is the possibility of impact from OCS activities associated with existing leases (presently located within the Sale No. 111 area) from Mid-Atlantic Sale Nos. 59, RS-2, 76, and South Atlantic Sale Nos. 56 and 78. However, given the relatively low resource estimate for these and currently leased lands in the Mid-Atlantic Planning Area, it is unlikely that development and production would occur on these lands without additional leasing activity in the mid-Atlantic region (see Section VIII, Appendix B). If Sale No. 111 were cancelled, the one assumed oil spill greater than 1,000 barrels would not occur. Impacts caused by routine discharges (e.g., drilling muds and cuttings, domestic/sanitary wastes) from the anticipated 20 exploratory, 8 delineation, and 45 production wells would not occur, which would be of particular benefit to water quality and localized plankton communities. Under this alternative, it is unlikely that gas pipelines and onshore processing facilities would be constructed and new support bases established in the mid-Atlantic region because of the low resource estimates from previously leased lands in this region. Also, the highly improbable occurrence of a catastrophic (greater than 100,000 barrels) oil spill would be eliminated. However, transport of imported oil by tanker through the region, the most likely cause of a large oil spill in the region (27 spills of greater than 1,000 barrels projected), would continue. Cancelling the sale would prevent the localized impacts to benthic organisms as associated with drilling operations. Perturbation to approximately 743 m2 of sediment surface area per well, resulting from the direct discharge to the seafloor of drilling muds and cuttings at the wellhead during the initial stages of the well drilling, would not occur. Impacts associated with the settling of drill cuttings discharged in the water column would not be evident, and potential impacts, such as the smothering of biota or changing of sediment granulometry because of the secondary plume contacting bottom at the shallow water lease sites, would be eliminated. The disruption of approximately 19,000 m2 for every kilometer of gas pipeline which was buried would not occur, and therefore, no impacts to the corresponding benthic communities would result. Potential impacts from an oil spill resulting from existing leases or present transportation of petroleum hydrocarbons through the sale area would remain the same. However, the potential moderate oil spill impact resulting from the proposed action would be eliminated. Cancellation of Sale No. 111 development activities would eliminate localized impacts on fishery resources near OCS structures resulting from drilling discharges. This elimination would have its greatest benefit on the continental shelf and the more inshore portions of the sale area because these areas are commercially more valuable than the offshore habitats. Also, since the one assumed oil spill of 1,000 barrels or greater would not occur, the risk of oil spill induced losses of shelf distributed ichthyoplankton (fish eggs and larvae) would be reduced. However, risks to mid-Atlantic fishery resources would still occur from the anticipated 27 spills of greater than 1,000 barrels related to the transport of imported oil. If the sale were cancelled, the estimated $22,235 in annual losses to commercial fishermen from OCS-related preclusion of fishing grounds would not occur. Cancellation of the proposed sale would prevent sale-specific impacts on marine and coastal birds, endangered species, and sensitive coastal habitats resulting from the one oil spill and gas pipeline, support vessel traffic and support facility construction assumed for Sale No. 111. This would be of particular benefit to marine and coastal birds and coastal areas in the vicinity of Nantucket Island, Long Island, and the Delaware and Raritan Bays as these areas face the greatest risk from a sale-related oil spill. Endangered sea turtles and whales are present within the proposed sale area or in adjacent waters. The absence of drilling platforms, and their associated discharges, vessel traffic, and the potential oil spill risk, would benefit both of these endangered groups. However, seabirds, coastal areas, and endangered species would still be exposed to oil spills from non-OCS sources if the proposed sale is cancelled. Imports of crude and refined petroleum products brought into the mid-Atlantic region currently pose a serious threat to wildlife resources as approximately 27 oil spills greater than 1,000 barrels each could occur over the expected production life of lease Sale No. 111 (Table 1, Appendix C). In addition, existing OCS leases pose a limited degree of risk to wildlife resources in the region. The probability of an oil spill occurring and contacting sea duck wintering areas, coastal marshes, peregrine falcon migratory stop-over areas, or humpback and fin whale feeding grounds from existing OCS leases and imported petroleum products combined is 81, 60, 63, and 39 percent, respectively (Table 12, Appendix C). Cancelling of the sale would not substantially change potential impacts on coastal recreation and tourism since only a negligible level of impact has been projected for these activities as a result of the proposed sale action. The high oil spill risk (97 percent probability of a spill ≥1,000 barrels occurring and contacting land) associated with ongoing transportation (import) of crude and refined products through the region and with activity from existing OCS leases remains. Onshore contruction of OCS facilities associated with the development scenarios of the proposed sale would also be avoided if the sale were cancelled. However, the construction of such facilities, and any associated impacts on coastal areas, may still result from prior and possible future lease sales. Cultural resources would not be affected by sale cancellation since no impacts were projected for these resources as a result of the proposed sale action. Cancellation of the sale would have no impact on the current employment, population or infrastructure at either the regional or local level. However, this cancellation would eliminate the 1,810 direct and secondary jobs that could have been created by the sale. This loss of potential employment is still negligible at the regional level. At the local level, the loss of these potential jobs would most heavily affect Hampton Roads, Virginia and Washington County, Rhode Island. These two localities would have absorbed the majority of the 590 jobs generated by each onshore support base. Cancellation of the sale would eliminate the use-conflict between the NASA Wallops Island Flight Facility and oil and gas exploration and development activities in the mid-Atlantic region. The level of this conflict under the proposed action is projected to be minor. Also, under this alternative, the potential conflict (minor) with existing and proposed ocean dumping within the sale area would be eliminated. Cancelling the proposed sale would reduce potential, future OCS domestic energy production by 200 million barrels of oil and 3.6 tef of natural gas--the mean resource estimates per Alternative 1. This potential future production affected is further increased if resources estimates from currently leased blocks (160 million barrels of oil and 2.4 trillion cubic feet of natural gas) are also considered, since the development of these current leases is unlikely without additional leasing activity. At peak production (year 1999) oil and gas from Sale No. 111 could account for approximately 0.5 percent of the United States energy consumption (US DOE/EIA, 1983). The reduction in available energy by this percentage could necessitate increased imports of oil and gas, require increased domestic energy conservation by industry and individuals and/or dictate the development of alternative energy sources to replace the energy resources expected to be recovered if the sale takes place. Equivalent amounts of energy (in terms of BTU's) from some of the most likely alternative energy sources are described in Table IV.G-1. Possible environmental/economic impacts and obstacles to implementation of alternative actions or sources are presented in Table IV.G-2. Table IV.G-1-1. Energy Needed from Other Sources to Replace Anticipated Source: 842 5 1,718,600,000 1,633,000,000 186,490,000 257,160,000 364,630,000 8,572,000 Conversion factors derived from FEIS, 1982, St. George Basin, It is unlikely that only one energy action/source would be employed to make up the energy shortfall caused by cancelling the proposed sale. Instead, a combination of some or all of the alternatives seems likely. The future U.S. energy source mix will depend on a multiplicity of factors, among them the identification of resources, research and development efforts, development of technology, rate of economic growth, the economic climate, changes in lifestyle and priorities, capital investment decisions, government policies, and availability of imports. The most likely combination of alternatives, given the factors just stated, appears to be a greater reliance on imported oil and natural gas, domestically produced strip-mined coal, and conservation resulting from increased prices and capital substitution. |