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been cut are considered suitable for continued energy production by culture of e.g. willow (Salix) and poplar (Populus). Methanol production based on peat and located to northern Sweden to utilize the peat there would be a natural component in the transition system. Methanol can be imported during a limited time e.g. produced from surplus natural gas, which is otherwise burnt off at the wellhead. Large investments in plants for liquid gas could then be avoided.

The building up of a biomass oriented energy system can begin immediately. Logging wastes, straw and reeds are available and can be used. Large areas are now being reforested naturally with dense stands of hardwoods and bushes similar to energy plantations. Other areas are immediately available for growing biomass. The use of peat provides another starting point. In a later phase more intensive kinds of cultivation could be introduced.

With respect to solar heating it is also true that the conditions for an immediate start exist. Equipment for solar heating of tap water are produced within the country. The market can be stimulated by the government through favourable loans etc. Other possibilities are using solar heating for swimming-pools, drying of grains etc. during a first phase.

Other components are in various stages of research, development or demonstration. Their introduction on the market can be facilitated by suitable design of organizations and rules. We will deal with these questions more thoroughly in the final report of the project.

Combined production of electricity and heat is naturally of interest from the point of view of energy conservation. Diesel powered generation is an example of such production. Diesel plants are perhaps interesting from the point of view of the transition process: fuel cells are expected also to give a combination of

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electricity and heat. By now building up a market where the
user side is geared to such local production it probably becomes
possible in the future directly to plug in the new units. At
the same time the systems problems connected with this type of
user unit will already have been solved.

From the point of view of retained future options an interesting question relates to the design of a possible Swedish gas distribution network. What factors are important for an analysis now of the question of what to do with such a system when the delivery contracts run out in some 20 years? The probability that the contracts will them not be renewed is great! If a large scale distribution network has been built up, it might become rational to transport biomass in gaseous form. Piped gas is not as capital intensive as electricity transfer and costs only 20 -30% of the electricity transport cost. However, large scale gas use is no natural component of the system such as it has been designed in chapter 4.

Is the 800 kV grid good or bad for a development towards Solar Sweden? This depends on the proportion of electricity in the energy balance and probably also on the size and geographic location relative to the user of the component supply units. The future development of the grid will be limited and supply will come from windpower, solar cells, fuel cells and combined generation plants (smaller than 100 - 200 MWe) etc. located near to the point of utilization. Investments in an 800 kV grid should be judged against this background.

The proportion of electricity in the energy balance and the use of electric energy in Solar Sweden points towards limiting the use of electricity for space heating. Electricity would be used as ancillary heating together with solar heating. The total volume of electricity exceeds the prognosis made by SIND for 1995, but is smaller than what can be expected if oil is to be replaced mainly by coal and/or nuclear. The main difference is in the production of industrial process heat.

Land has many characteristics and uses. It is described not only by its area but also by production capacity, minerals, location topography etc. Land as a resource has recently been discussed in a publication from the study on resources and raw materials by the Secretariat for Future Studies (56).

It is possible to use a certain piece of land in many ways, one being to refrain from using it in order to reserve it for future generations. There is also a time aspect of land use. Certain kinds of activities can quickly be stopped or changed. Others lead to long range uses and changes in the conditions for future use. Therefore many conflicts arise over land use. The national physical planning has been instituted to make a long range planning of our land resources possible (102).

In the renewable energy system it is the growing of biomass that takes most land, approximately 3 million ha. Considerable areas are also needed for windpower and waterpower in non-urban areas and solar cells in or near urban areas. A certain multiple use of land is naturally possible e.g. between windpower and energy plantations. Other technologies can use land already in some other use, e.g. solar collectors on houses.

Part of the land needed for Solar Sweden is now impediment (i.e. at present unused land without value). A considerable part, however, is already under use, primarily in forestry. In urban areas there are a number of interests that compete with the energy system for land.

A domestic renewable energy system will entail land use directly for the energy supply of a completely different order of magnitude than

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today. Today we import the major part of our energy, which means that only limited areas are directly used within Sweden. On the other hand the oil import is paid for by export, which through the forest industry makes large demands on land.

We shall here briefly touch upon some of the conflicting interests that exist over land use in Solar Sweden. Land use and energy systems has been more thoroughly dealt with by Engström (103).

Forestry uses approximately 23 million ha, which is equivalent to 57% of the land surface of Sweden.

The forest industry can be considered energy producing in the sense that the refined fibre is exported and the income used to buy energy (oil). The yield that 1 ha of forest land produces in this way is equivalent on the average to 3 4 m3 oil (104). Direct combustion of the amount of timber from such an area is

equivalent to approximately 1 m3 of oil. Energy plantations have been assumed to yield approximately 90 MWh per ha on the average. This is equivalent to approximately 9 m3 of oil. The best land for forest production is, however, not necessary the best for energy plantations, which need large amount of water. The labour force that has been working previously in forestry and forest industry can be employed with growing and handling the biomass.

Using forest land for energy plantations excludes production of wood for timber and pulp industry. Timber and pulp (paper) are in the long run goods that are expected to be scarce. It is thus dubious to force out part of the fibre production in this way. On the other hand energy plantations will in the long run reduce the need for (e.g.) oil import. Thus one can consider energy plantations to release certain quantities of oil. Oil will also become scarce and it is the energy raw material that is considered

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a prerequisite for the advance of the developing countries (105). Forest industry may also become interested in quickly growing species, such as those used for energy plantations, as raw material for certain types of paper. If so, the competition will be more severe between the forest sector and the energy sector.

It is yet too early to describe in more detail the possible conflicts between Solar Sweden and the planned future forest industry. It can become less severe than is indicated by the 1 million ha in the example if productivity and availability of other land has been underestimated. If the same parameters have been overestimated or forest industry can use the same species as raw material, it may become more intensive.

The availability of land for forest industry should be seen in this perspective and measures that make the development towards energy plantations more difficult or impossible should not be taken on a large scale pending better background material concerning both available land of various qualities and the production capacity of energy plantations.

Recreation ought not to become a limiting factor on the energy system sketched here. Certain restrictions on what areas are possible to use for open air recreation will however occur. These ought to be of a limited nature. E.g. areas with wind power plants can be used by open air recreation, possibly with some restrictions. The influence on recreation can be reduced by suitable choice of areas for e.g. wind power and energy plantations and also by design of the facilities. There is reason to take multiple use into the greatest consideration.

Large scale building of recreational housing might become an obstacle to land use for energy production. The conflict would not depend so