Figure 4.1: The energy system 2015. On the left side the supply from renewable sources and the amounts from each source. On the right side end use of energy divided into the energy quality I. In between is the linkage between supply and use. Figures indicate cathegories A the energy in TWh represented by each line.

The energy carriers that the goods producing sector (i.e. industry plus agriculture, forestry and fisheries) are assumed to use in 2015 according to figure 4.1 are compared with 1974 and a prognosis for 1995 (44) in table 4.2.

Table 4.2: Energy use in the goods production, TWh

The energy use sketched in the example is based, as pointed out earlier, on a doubling of production with the same branches of industry as at present. Some of the energy intensive sectors of industry can have difficulties in growing in this manner. The forest industry is at present limited by the amount of raw materials

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available. A change in the type of production can therefore occur and can be assumed to reduce the average energy use.

In the example we have further assumed that the specific energy use is lowered by 20% as a result of measures to increase the efficiency of energy use. Technical possibilities exist already today for further reducing the energy use in many processes when constructing new plants. The basic thermodynamic limits are in most cases very far off. During the period to 2015 the technical equipment in industry will be changed completely one or two times.

It is thus a modest assumption we have made about the effects of energy conservation. The reason for this as we have pointed out earlier, is that we only want to exemplify the possibilities for a new energy system. We want to make as few assumptions as possible about far reaching changes of various activities of importance for the energy system.

Methanol seems to be a suitable energy carrier for the transport sector (apart from electricity for railroads). See section 4.6. It is easy to introduce methanol into the existing car park, it can be produced from several different energy sources (biomass, oil, coal) and it can thus be introduced gradually (45).

There are several reasons for using methanol as the fuel in the transport sector. Present air pollution stems largely from cars and is thought to lead to considerable effects on health and the environment. With methanol as an additive to petrol the levels of several air pollutants is considerably reduced and some of them can be completely avoided. Lead, which is added to petrol to increase the octane rating can be completely eliminated. The existing car park can

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with small changes be fueled by a mixture of petrol and methanol.
A market can gradually be built up in this way. Ethanol may perhaps
be an alternative to methanol.

Direct combustion of methanol in engines of present day type

leads however to very large demands for biomass, if the transport sector develops as we have assumed (a doubling relative to today or approximately 150,000 million personkm and approximately 100,000 million tonkm).

Two lines of development for achieving more efficient energy use in the transport sector can be seen. One is the utilization of electric motors (which have high efficiencies and no idling losses). Electricity can be generated by fuel cells in the vehicle (see section 4.7) or the vehicle can be equipped with electric batteries which are recharged from the grid. The other line of development would be new engine constructions, further developed combustion engines or heat engines, e.g. the Stirling engine (cf table 4.3).

Electric cars with batteries have more than double the running distance per unit energy compared with today's cars (46). For fuel cell cars the potential is 2 to 5 times longer running distance per unit energy (47).

With a transport system where fuel cells fed by methanol is used the engine will be electric. The electricity is generated in the fuel cells in relation to demand. Batteries is another possibility. These are recharged during periods of low electricity use (e.g. night) and therefore help evening out the load on the grid. There are similarities with the fuel cell powered cars but the conversion of the fuel to electricity does not take place in the vehicle. Which way development will go depends on costs and the capacity in batteries (which today allow only a very limited running distance) relative to costs for small fuel cells. The importance to the electric power system of vehicles that can store electricity, is discussed somewhat further below.

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Table 4.3: Technical performance of different engines (48)

There are prototypes of combustion engines which use the fuel with double present efficiency (49). Hybrid engines (combustion engines with kinetic energy storage) (50) can also give a reduction of the fuel consumption to approximately half that of present vehicles. Direct use of wood powder in diesel engines is an alternative for avoiding the losses in converting wood to methanol.

We have assumed that the average energy use per kilometre in 2015 is half that of today.