The Secretariat for Future Studies was organized in 1973 after the The Secretariat for Future Studies was originally attached to the Prime Minister's Office. In 1975 an Executive Committee was appointed consisting of members who represent all political parties in the Swedish Parliament. This Committee (and the Secretariat) is now working under the formal responsibility of the Ministry of Education. The Secretariat has so far sponsored four projects: "Energy and society", "Sweden in the world society", "Resources and raw materials" and "Working life in the future". The projects are organized as research teams but with strong links to different ministries. All projects are formally independent. Roughly four, five professionals are attached on a full-time basis together with part-time consultants mainly from the universities. The links to the ministries are in the form of reference groups, where analyses, background material, etc., are discussed. The final conclusions are the responsibility of the project groups alone. Money is granted at the start and the projects usually run for two or three years. The first round of projects is scheduled to be completed during 1978. The project "Energy and society" originated in 1974 and work started in 1975. A series of reports have been published, covering different topics such as energy and economic growth, different environmental aspects, energy analysis, the nuclear fuel cycle, etc. All of them are published in Swedish, but some material is also available in English. The reports are circulated though a subscription system to a large readership, ranging from government agencies, members of Parliament, political parties and schools to newspapers, private companies and individuals. Moreover, the press coverage is rather substantial. The future study "Energy and Society" is primarily attempting to understand the conditions for the future energy policy - and how to avoid being committed to one or other energy source and thereby creating freedom of action in the energy field. The fundamental point is that society faces a transition away from oil and towards one or more long-term energy sources. To achieve this, you must know more about the relations between our future society and its need for energy. Different prospects i.e. a higher stand of living, rising salaries, full employment, environmental safety, a more even distribution of income etc. All these facts to some extent influence the future energy need. In our report "Energy in Transition" (1) we make a summary of our preceeding reports about these questions. In the report we also discuss the long-term energy policy, what future options are available and their limitations. There are a number of different energy sources to be considered, which in various ways can be coupled to our future energy needs. Along with the nuclear power extensions for breeder reactors and advanced coal technologies, various renewable energy sources have also been rapidly developed. In this report we discuss the characteristics of an energy system, completely based on renewable sources. We also discuss some point of interest in a possible direction of policy towards such an energy system. We do not, however, compare other alternatives to future energy systems. We address these questions in our Final Report.* We would specially like to thank Per Anders Bergendahl, Lars Bergman, Lars Emmelin, Ola Johansson, Lars Kristoferson, Per Ragnarson and Lars Rey for stimulating discussions and critical comments of a draft of the report. We wish to thank Lars Emmelin for the translation also Margareta Grånäs and Ulla Malmquist for their transcriptions of many versions of the report. * Måns Lönnroth, Thomas B Johansson, Peter Steen: "Solar or nuclear to choose energy future" (preliminary title), published by Pergamon Press during 1978. In this report we will discuss a domestic, renewable energy system. In a previous report (1) we have discussed the transition away from oil towards cther energy sources that the energy systems are facing. Society is now facing the task of beginning to invest in a new energy system. In the long run this system can contain either renewable energy sources, coal or breeder reactors or any combination of these. We have previously claimed that steps must now be taken to open the door for the renewable energy sources otherwise they will never become an important alternative. It is, nowever, not enough to develop new technology. It is also necessary to avoid a too strong commitment to other energy sources in order to give the new technology a chance of being used. This argument is interesting only if renewable energy sources have a potential comparable with those many people believe coal and nuclear power to have. The purpose of this study is to discuss tnis potential. We will therefore first snow that the energy flows in Sweden, deriving from the sun, by themselves are of such a magnitude tnat they alone could supply us with sufficient energy. We thereafter discuss different aspects of a system based only on these energy flows to identify important problems which would appear if Sweden were to choose to aim its energy policy towards this goal. A common argument against the renewable energy sources is that they would be too expensive. We will therefore attempt a rough analysis of the economic consequences of a renewable system. Against this background a further discussion can be made concerning alternative designs of the energy system, its interrelationship with the development of other sectors of society, the needs for research, development and demonstration, organization and legislation etc. 54-948 O - 80-49 |