It is a subject on which I think we all have to work with great urgency. I think the threat to the United States is really there. I want to thank you very much for your time, your patience, and for your help to both of the subcommittees.

We will stand adjourned.

[Whereupon, at 5 p.m., the hearing was concluded.]

APPENDIX A

January 16, 1979
DES-R-02

--DRAFT-

DISTRIBUTED ENERGY SYSTEMS IN CALIFORNIA'S FUTURE
ISSUES IN TRANSITION

prepared by:

Paul P. Craig

University of California
Davis, California

and

Mark D. Levine

Lawrence Berkeley Laboratory

University of California

Berkeley, California

First Interim Report on Distributed Energy Systems in California's Future

A Renewable Energy Outcome in 2025

Costs of Renewable Energy Systems

The Integration of Renewable Electricity Generating
Options with the Electric Grid . .

Refrigerators:

the Economics of Life Cycle Costing

Energy Conservation and Home Heating in California
Energy Demand Growth and the 2025 "Outcome"

1

Summary of Electricity Sources for the Renewable "Outcome"

Solar Energy

52

53

Prospects for an Accelerated Transition in California to
Energy Conservation and Renewable Energy Systems
Life Cycle Costing . .

Accelerated Commercialization of Renewable Energy Systems.
Availability and Price of Fossil and Nuclear Resources

66

DISTRIBUTED ENERGY SYSTEMS IN CALIFORNIA'S FUTURE: ISSUES IN TRANSITION

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

The Distributed Energy Systems study was undertaken to explore issues surrounding a potential shift of an advanced industrial state (California) to primary reliance on indigenous renewable energy forms. Such a transition appears to be both technically and economically feasible; by 2025 California could sustain a growing economy while cutting back on use of fossil fuels to less than 40 percent of today's use, primarily to provide fuel for transportation and high temperature heat. The keys to a predominately renewable energy future are:

a) finding ways to encourage cost effective conservation (in
order to limit total demand for energy while still permitting
economic growth), and

b) providing incentives for the accelerated development of
renewable energy systems. The study drew no firm conclusions
as to how renewables might fare in competition with non-renewable
based energy systems in the absence of new policy initiatives to
encourage them.

Objectives and Assumptions

The overall objective of the analysis has been to assess the role that distributed, renewable energy systems might play in a California future in which a plausible set of public policies, consumer attitudes, and external events favor the implementation and use of these systems. A basic assumption of the study is that growth in the California economy and population continues over the next four to five decades.

Renewable indigenous energy resources offer major promise for contributing to U.S. and global energy needs in the post-oil and gas era. Yet little work has been done to examine how such systems might actually be implemented. During the past two years a study group at the University of California has been exploring the prospects for meeting California's energy