SOLAR ENERGY FUTURES

Since 1974 The MITRE Corporation has been actively involved in the planning of the federal government's solar technology and

commercialization programs. We are now working with the Department of Energy to develop a National Plan for the Accelerated Commercialization of Solar Energy. The results of the first phase of that study form the primary basis for the remainder of this

statement.

The Domestic Policy Review (DPR) presents three scenarios for solar energy* development and the associated degrees of federal support. The MITRE Corporation provided the DPR panels with technology descriptions, projections of potential future use, and environmental analysis. We have conducted additional analyses to provide detailed information for commercialization planning and implementation. The DPR's estimate of 10 quadrillion Btu's per year from solar by the turn of the century is slightly lower than our current Reference Case estimate of 14 quads. This could easily be the result of unstated assumptions about the technology development and federal support in the post-1985 period. As such, the DPR's estimate of 10 quads as a Baseline Case is not unreasonable. with our current projections, the DPR's Max Practical Case included higher impacts from passive heating and cooling, biomass, and photovoltaics and correspondingly lower estimates for wind and solar thermal electric. The relative energy savings maintain the same rank order as ours, with the exception of photovoltaics and solar thermal

Compared

*Solar energy technologies include active and passive solar thermal, wind, photovoltaics, biomass, ocean thermal energy conversion and hydroelectric systems.

electric. The latter switch is most likely due to our inclusion of a repowering program to use solar central receivers in conjunction with existing oil- and gas-fired utility electric facilities.

Solar energy projections, like any attempts to foretell the future, are uncertain. The implications of an effort to achieve a particular level of solar use can be estimated with more certainty. For example, reaching 22 to 25 quads of solar use by the turn of the century would mean quadrupling or quintupling our current solar usage. This will require an unprecedented national commitment.

Twenty-two quads out of our total energy demand of 115 quads would mean a solar contribution of 20 percent of the nation's energy needs. This would require a capital investment of solar equipment of $1 trillion by the turn of the century. The capital required would be equal to 20 to 30 percent of the nation's investment over the next 20 years. Approximately 50 million solar systems would be installed

in the residential and commercial sector. One out of two existing buildings in the year 2000 would be using some type of solar energy for a portion of their energy needs. At least 40,000 industrial plants would use solar systems to produce process heat and/or on-site

electricity.

This is approximately one out of seven plants in existence in the year 2000. Electric utilities would have 2,000 solar electric systems with a peak capacity of 150,00 MWe. Solar energy would provide approximately 20 percent of the nation's electricity. Over one and a half million persons would be employed

by the turn of the century in the production of steel, glass, aluminum, copper, and concrete and in the manufacture, installation, and maintenance of solar systems. Solar sales would amount to over $50 billion per year, a greater than 800-fold increase of current

solar sales.

Federal expenditures to achieve such a goal could easily approach $140 billion. Since 80 percent of the systems would be added after

We will learn much about industry

1990, the bulk of these expenditures will be needed to commercialize systems not now market-ready. response and user acceptance of solar energy as the provisions of the National Energy Act are implemented. Subsequent commercialization programs can be fine tuned to balance energy savings and federal expenditures.

It is important to recognize that although the long-term benefits of a transition to the extensive use of solar energy are beneficial, the short-term effects of a rapid acceleration of solar energy use will not show immediate benefits. A commitment to solar energy is an investment of today's resources, private and federal funds, and personal skills to create a more stable future. Achieving a 20 percent goal by the turn of the century would likely create a nearterm net decrease in benefits as measured by GNP, inflation,

capital availability, or even environmental impact.

The major

benefits of solar use will show up after the year 2000 when the

systems are in operation.

The use of solar energy at the turn of the century could range from a level slightly above today's 6 percent to a level approaching 20 percent of the nation's energy supply. Solar usage is very sensitive to inflation, economic growth, conventional fuel

availability, overall energy policy and regulation, and, a lesser extent, to policies affecting solar research, development, and commercialization.

Although the successful outcome of any solar

commercialization program cannot be guaranteed, two major requirements of an effective solar policy are clear.

First, we must achieve a broad consensus of solar's role in the nation's energy policy. This consensus should be related to realistic expectations of technology costs and performance, likely industry and user response, and private and federal expenditures. Second, the federal government must make a commitment to support its solar energy policy. Essential to this commitment is that solar commercialization programs must be broadened and extended beyond 1985. This would counteract the delays and unfulfilled expectations that have frustrated solar development in the past and allow industry and the user time to respond.

Given a consensus and commitment by government, industry, and the public, solar energy could become a significant part of our energy system by the turn of the century. But this will not be easy under any solar energy policy. If we are to establish a viable solar option, we must act to build on the current momentum or lose that option in this decade, possibly this century.