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CONTENTS
Summary
Introduction.
1. The Transition Years.
Factors Affecting the Transition_
The Profiles of Enlisted Personnel, 1960-74-
A Successful Transition: Rationale....
Conclusion_
2. Remaining Transition Problems: Short-Term Solutions_
Critical Skill Shortages-The "Quality" Issue__
The Reserve Forces Problem__
Doctor Supply Problem..
Conclusions_
3. Long-Term Prospects.
The Demand for Volunteers.
Supply of Volunteers.
4. Some Options__.
To Decrease the Demand for Male Enlisted Personnel.
To Increase the Supply of Male Enlisted Volunteers.
Conclusions.
5. Next Steps.
Appendix A: Supply Methodology.
Appendix B: Regression Analyses of Volunteerism in Relation to Employ- ment..
FIGURES
CHAPTER 1: THE TRANSITION YEARS
1. Draft Inductions, All Services, Fiscal Years 1960-74_
2. Active Military Manpower, All Services, Fiscal years 1960–74_
3. Total Male Enlistments and True Volunteers, All Services, Fiscal
Years 1971-74__.
4. True Volunteers, Ground Combat Arms, Selected Monthly Averages,
1970-72__
9
10
5. Percent Share of Male Initial Accessions Identified by AFQT Mental
Group, All Services, Fiscal Years 1960-73__
11
6. Percentage Distribution of New Accessions, by Service and AFQT
Mental Group, Fiscal Years 1970–73_
12
7. Percentage Distribution for "True" Volunteers, by Service and AFQT
Mental Group, Fiscal Years 1970-73.
13
8. Average Mental Abilities Based on AFQT Test Results for Male True
Volunteers, by Service, and for the Total U.S. Male Population,
Fiscal Years 1970-73__
14
9. High School Graduates: Comparison of Initial Accessions, and of
Civilian Labor Force, by Service, Fiscal Years 1970-73__
10. High School Graduates: Comparison of True Volunteers, and of Civil-
ian Labor Force, by Service, Fiscal Years 1970-73_
15
16
11. Nonwhites as Percentage of Active Duty Enlisted Forces, All Services,
and of Total Population, Calendar Years 1960–72---
12. Nonwhites as Percentage of Active Duty Enlisted Forces, by Service,
Calendar Years 1970-72_ __
17
13. Nonwhites as Percentage of Initial Accessions, All Services, Fiscal
Years 1960-72_
18
14. Percentage of Nonwhites by AFQT Mental Groups I-V__
19
15. Nonwhites as Percentage of Initial Accessions, by Service, Fiscal Years
1970-73___.
(IX)
95-825 0-73- -2
16. A Comparison of Median Weekly Earnings of Civilian Full Time Wage
and Salary Workers (Ages 18, 19, and 20) and Weekly Earnings of
Enlisted Males During the First Year of Military Service, Fiscal Page
Years 1967-73_
17. Comparison of Median Weekly Earnings of Civilian Full-time Wage
and Salary Workers and Military Enlisted Personnel on Active Duty,
by Age and Sex, May 1972__.
18. Trends in Department of Defense Recruiting Resources for Active
Duty Forces, Fiscal Years 1970-73___
CHAPTER 3: LONG-TERM PROSPECTS
19. True Volunteers and Unemployment Rates, by State for the Fifty
States and the District of Columbia, Calendar Year 1970_ _ -
TABLES
1-1 Enlistment of Male True Volunteers, by Service, Fiscal Years 1971-74-
1-2 Percentage of Male Enlistees Discharged by the Army as "Unsuitable"
in Fiscal Years 1971-72, by AFQT Mental Group and Educational
Level_
1-3 Percentage Distribution of Earnings, Parents of Recruits and Appli-
cants U.S. Air Force Compared with U.S. Family Income, Calendar
Years 1970–73__.
1-4 Annual Cost of the All-Volunteer Force, by Category, Fiscal Years
1972-74_.
1-5 Components of Military Pay Increase, Fiscal Years 1968-74-
CHAPTER 2: REMAINING TRANSITION PROBLEMS: SHORT-TERM SOLUTIONS
2-1 Reserve Forces: Authorized Strength, Fiscal 1973, and Manpower
Shortage or Surplus, by Reserve Component, March 1973_.
2-2 Estimates of Gains and Losses for Reserve Enlisted Manpower, by
Service, Fiscal 1974_
2-3 Recruits Scoring in Mental Category IV as a Percentage of Accessions
with No Prior Service, Reserve and Active Forces, Fiscal Year 1972_
2-4 Women Enlisted Personnel as a Percentage of Accessions with No
Prior Service, Reserve and Active Forces, Fiscal Year 1972.
2-5 Black Enlisted Men as a Percentage of Accessions with No Prior Serv-
ice, Active and Reserve Forces, Fiscal Year 1972__
21
2223
3-1 Total Active Force Military Manpower Requirements, by Service,
Fiscal Years 1971-74_.
38
3-2 Average Annual Demand for Male Enlisted Volunteers, by Service,
Fiscal Years 1973-79___
39
3-3 Percentage Distribution of New Accessions by Service, AFQT Mental
Group and Service Quality Goals, Fiscal Years 1960-69, 1972–73--
3-4 Average Demand for Male Enlisted Volunteers, by Service and AFQT
Mental Group, Fiscal Years 1975-79____
3-5 Male Candidates for Military Services, Ages 17-22, Selected Calendar Years 1960-79_ _ .
3-6 Proportions of Qualfied and Available Manpower Required to Meet Enlisted Accession Requirements, by Age, Average for Fiscal Years 1975-79__
3-7 Comparison of Projected Supply of and Demand for Male Enlisted
Accessions, by Service and AFQT Mental Groups, Average for
Fiscal Years 1975-79-
40
41
43
CHAPTER 4: SOME OPTIONS
4-1 Female Enlisted Accessions, by Service, Selected Fiscal Years 1960-77_
4-2 Estimates of Potential Civilianization of Enlisted Positions at Fiscal
Year 1974 Manpower Levels, by Service___
4-3 Estimated Percentage of Enlisted Military Personnel Turnover Rates
by Service, and Service Goals, for Selected Fiscal Years 1960–74__
4-4 Percentage Distribution of Noncollege Male Population (Ages 19-21)
and Fiscal 1973 True Volunteers Based on AFQT Test Results____
4-5 Selected Types of Physical Disqualification Among Enlistees for
which Revised Standards Might be Appropriate___
APPENDIX A: SUPPLY METHODOLOGY
A-1 Males Qualified and Available for Military Service, Fiscal 1960-79__
A-2 Males Qualified and Available for Military Service, by Age (17- to
22-Year-Olds), Fiscal Years 1975-79__
A-3 17-Year-Olds in Fiscal 1974 Likely to be Qualified and Available for
Military Service at Sometime before Reaching Age 23--
Page
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49
51
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54
59
60
APPENDIX B: REGRESSION ANALYSES OF VOLUNTEERISM IN RELATION TO EMPLOYMENT
B-1 Data for Linear and Multiple Regression Analyses.
64