Greater delays in childbearing among White women. Despite the similarity in the level of fertility between White and Black women 25 and over, sharp differences emerge in the timing of entry into motherhood. Only 22 percent of the births to Black women 25 to 29 were first births, compared with 38 percent for White women in the same age group; the corresponding percentages for women 30 to 44 were 11 and 24 percent, respectively (tables 4B and 4C). Among women 18 to 24 years old in 1986, 75 percent of White women were childless, compared with 57 percent of Black women.

Out-of-wedlock childbearing higher for Blacks. Table A also shows large differences in fertility by women in different marital statuses. Fertility rates for currently married women in 1986 (95.3 per 1,000) were significantly higher than the rates for either widowed or divorced women (27.1) or single women (32.1). (No difference in fertility rates is implied between these latter two groups.)

Approximately one-half (49 percent) of all births to Black women were to women not married at the survey date-4 times as high as that reported by White women (12 percent), and about twice as high as that reported by Hispanic women (23 percent). Overall, 17 percent of women 18 to 44 who had a child in the previous year were not married at the survey date (table B). Of these 616,000 unmarried women, 138,000 were currently widowed or divorced at the time of the survey and 478,000 were single (table 4A).4 Although only 33 percent of all births to women 18 to 44 years old were borne by women under age 25, 59 percent of all births to unmarried women occurred to women in this age group.

LABOR FORCE CHARACTERISTICS OF MOTHERS WITH NEWBORN CHILDREN

Labor force participation rates for women 18 to 44 years old with newborn children reached the 50 percent level in 1986, up from 38 percent in 1980 and 31 percent in 1976, the first date the Census Bureau recorded these statistics (table C). About 1.8 million women with infants were in the labor force in June 1986, up from 865,000 in June 1976; 1.6 million women with infants were employed at the time of the 1986 survey while another 0.2 million were unemployed (table 4A).

*The number of out-of-wedlock births recorded in the CPS falls short of the actual number as reported in vital registration data because of the age limitation of the CPS universe which excludes the collection of fertility data for single women under 18 years old. According to the latest vital registration statistics, about 15 percent (128,000) of the births to unmarried women in calendar year 1984 occurred to women under 18 years of age (National Center for Health Statistics, Monthly Vital Statistics Report, Vol. 36, No. 4 (Supplement), table 18).

Source: June Current Population Surveys of 1976, 1978, and 1980 to 1986.

Labor force rates higher for more educated, older, and first-time mothers. Higher labor force participation rates among women with newborn children are reported by more educated women (table D). Data from the June 1986 CPS show that 32 percent of women who had a birth in the last year and who had completed less than

12 years of school were in the labor force at the survey date, compared with 59 percent for recent mothers who had 4 or more years college.

Mothers with less than a high school education also failed to make as great a gain in the workplace between 1976 and 1986 as did women with a high school or a college education. Women with less than a high school education increased their labor force participation rate by only 6 percentage points in this 10-year period, while women with 4 or more years of college recorded a gain of 20 percentage points in the same period.

Older women in 1986 with recent births were also more likely be in the labor force: 53 percent of women

force in June 1986, compared with 46 percent for women 18 to 24 years old. Approximately two-thirds of women having their first birth between the ages 30 and 44 were in the labor force in June 1986, compared with one-half for women having their first birth under age 25.

Overall, labor force rates for women having their first birth were higher than those among women having their second or higher order birth in 1986 (57 and 46 percent, respectively). Since a woman's labor force participation is heavily dependent on securing child care services, older mothers with higher incomes and greater job commitment or mothers with only one child may find it easier and more affordable to return to work.

Few labor force gains since 1976 for Blacks and single mothers. Black women failed to make as impressive gains in the labor force as did their White counterparts in the last 10 years. In 1976, 43 percent of Black women with newborns were in the labor force, significantly higher than the 29 percent recorded by White women. By 1986, a leveling off in the rates occurred as both race groups registered labor force rates at the 50 percent level.

A single mother's difficulties in securing day care services for her children while at work are complicated by the absence of a husband who can provide potential child care services himself and provide financial resources for these services. While there were no statistically significant differences in labor force participation in 1976 among single, currently married, or formerly married (widowed, separated, or divorced) women, by 1986, the labor force participation rate for single women stood at 42 percent, compared with 51 percent for either currently or formerly married women.

Table D also shows labor force rates for married women with recent births by their husband's employment status and their husband's occupation, if employed. It is interesting to note that labor force participation by married women in 1986, as in 1976, appears not to be associated with the husband's occupation. It may be that labor force participation by women with infants has become an expected part of family life, regardless of their husband's occupational situation. Women whose

husbands were not in the labor force, however, had lower labor force participation rates in both 1976 and 1986 than did those whose husbands were either employed or unemployed.

Data in table D clearly show that statistically significant increases in labor force participation in the past 10 years appear to have occurred in most demographic groups with the exception of single women with infants and women whose husbands were not in the labor force. These women, however, are probably most in need of a job to increase their family resources.

AGE PATTERNS OF FERTILITY, 1976-86

Age-specific percentages of childlessness and annual fertility rates derived from Current Population Survey supplements are shown in table E for selected years between 1976 and 1986. (These data are not available for women of all marital statuses before 1976 from the CPS.) The overall percentage of women 18 to 44 years old who were childless in 1986 was 37 percent, not significantly different from the level recorded in 1980 but slightly higher than the 35 percent level in 1976.

Fertility rates up for women in early thirties, but so is their level of childlessness. An examination of the proportions of childless women in different age groups indicates that women 40 to 44 years old in June 1986,

165.5

'65.9

64.5

67.1

64.2

who were born during World War II (1942-46), will finish their childbearing years with about 13 percent of their birth cohort being childless. Ten years ago when the 1942-46 birth cohort of women was asked about its childbearing plans, only 9 percent of the women (who were then 30 to 34 years old), said they expected never to have any children.5 This estimate was slightly more optimistic than the 13 percent they will probably record.

Looking ahead, women 30 to 34 and 35 to 39 years old in 1986 are nearing the completion of their childbearing years with levels of childlessness of 24 and 17 percent, respectively, some 50 percent higher than the levels recorded by women the same age in 1976. Judging by the very small declines in childlessness experienced by women were 30 to 34 years old in 1976 and 40 to 44 years old in 1986 (from 15.6 to 13.2 percent), it seems unlikely that women currently in their thirties will approach the 10 percent level of childlessness they expected in 1976. 6

Age-specific fertility rates per 1,000 women 18 to 44 years old are also shown in table E. Overall, no consistent pattern can be identified since 1976: the rate increased from 67.2 in 1976 to 71.1 in 1980, decreased to 65.8 in 1984, and once again increased to 70.3 by 1986. Fertility rates for women 30 to 34 years old in 1986, however, were significantly higher than they were in 1980, and were 40 percent higher in 1986 than they were in 1976.

BIRTH EXPECTATIONS

The average number of lifetime births expected by women 18 to 34 years old in June 1986 was 2,099 per 1,000 women, comprising 1,114 births to date plus 985 future births expected (table 7). The 1986 level, on the average, was about 0.1 of a child below the lifetime birth expectations reported by this same age group of women in 1976 (2,160 per 1,000) (see table 5). Little change has occurred since 1979, as birth expectations for this age group of women have averaged annually between 2.0 to 2.1 births per woman. In 1986, 48 percent of women 18 to 34 years old reported that they expected two lifetime births, 14 percent expected only one child, and 9 percent expected to be childless (table 10), about the same level of expected lifetime childlessness as reported in 1976.7

Differences by age and marital status. Table 7 shows that only minor differences in the level of expected lifetime fertility separated individual age groups in 1986.

Current Population Reports, Series P-20, No. 308, Fertility of American Women: June 1976, table 1, for 1976 birth expectations data for single women.

Ibid.

With the exception of teenage women (18 and 19 years) who expected 2.0 births, women in other age groups expected 2.1 births each. The similarity in birth expectations among different age groups of women is impressive, considering that in June 1986, women 18 to 19 only had 10 percent of their expected lifetime births as of the survey date, compared with 55 and 83 percent, respectively, for women 25 to 29 and 30 to 34 years old.

Although birth expectations data for all women (including single women) were not available before 1976, data for currently married women 18 to 34 years old show a sharp decline from 3.1 births per married women in 1967 to 2.6 in 1971 to 2.3 in 1976. The average number reported by married women in 1986, 2.3 per woman, was the same as in 1976 (table 5). Single women 18 to 34 years old in 1986 expected to complete their childbearing years with 1.8 births each, again no different from expectations reported in 1976 (table 7), 8

Reliability of reports on birth expectations. The reliability of birth expectations data is affected not only by the steadfastness of the respondents to their expectations but also by omitting from the statistical calculations women who state that they are either uncertain about their future childbearing or who fail to answer the questions at all. Table F shows that in 1986, about 15 percent of women 18 to 34 years old were uncertain about their birth expectations, while another 11 percent failed to respond to the questions on birth expectations.9

The percentage of women uncertain about their future childbearing increased from 12.7 in 1980 to 14.5 percent in 1986 for all women 18 to 34 years old. The uncertainty about their future birth expectations is inversely related with the age of women. For example, 17 percent of 18-to-24-year-old women reported they were uncertain about their future childbearing, compared with 14 percent by 25-to-29-year-old women and 11 percent reported by women 30-to-34-years old. The higher levels of uncertainty on birth expectations among younger women could be due to indecision caused by formulating their school and career plans and their anticipation that they have many more years remaining before they must make a firm decision about their childbearing.

*See Current Population Reports, Series P-20, No. 308, table 1, for 1976 birth expectations data for single women.

"Failures to report on birth expectations consist of women who were not available for questioning or who did not complete the series of questions on birth expectations. (See appendix B for questions.) 1o See Charles F. Westoff and Norman B. Ryder, "The Predictive Validity of Reproductive Intentions," Demography, Vol. 14, No. 4 (November 1977), pp. 431-453; S. Philip Morgan, "Parity-Specific Fertility Intentions and Uncertainty: The United States, 1970 to 1976," Demography, Vol. 19, No. 3 (August 1982), pp. 315-334; and Martin O'Connell and Carolyn C. Rogers, “Assessing Cohort Birth Expectations Data from the Current Population Survey, 1971-1981,"

Source: June Current Population Surveys 1976, 1980, and 1986.

Uncertainty about future childbearing by single women. The percentage of single women reporting they were uncertain about their birth expectations or did not report at all in 1986 was 21 and 17 percent, respectively, significantly higher than that for currently married women (10 and 7 percent, respectively). The higher levels of uncertainty for single women reflect their greater difficulty in anticipating their future fertility since they often must anticipate not one but two future events: marriage as well as childbearing. Higher percentages of incomplete or no responses reported by single women than by currently married women result from greater difficulties of interviewers in obtaining and arranging appointments for personal interviews since many single women live alone and/or work during the day.

When interpreting birth expectations data, consideration must be given to the respondents who are either uncertain or who do not report on birth expectations. Although birth expectations data basically represent a woman's expectations at the time of the survey, they are subject to change over time as a woman's circumstances alter in different stages of her life cycle. Analysis of individual respondents over time also suggests that women who are uncertain about their childbearing at the time of the survey, especially childless women and women in older age groups, have a tendency to revise their expectations to "no lifetime births expected" in succeeding interviews. 10 In effect, women who are uncertain about their birth expectations may be simply saying that, at least in the near future, no children are expected to be born.

FERTILITY OF NATIVE-BORN AND
FOREIGN-BORN WOMEN: APRIL 1983 AND
JUNE 1986

This is the first report to present current fertility estimates for foreign-born women in the United States based on data collected in special supplements to the April 1983 and June 1986 Current Population Surveys. In April 1983, fertility data were collected only for foreign-born women 18 to 44 years; the information included the number of children ever born, date of birth of the last child born, childbearing outside the United States, and, for those children born outside the United States, the number currently living with the mother in the household. The June 1986 fertility schedule for women 18 to 44 years old consisted of questions on age at first marriage, the number of children ever born, the dates of birth of the women's first and last child, and birth expectations for both native and foreign-born women residing in the United States.11

11See Amara Bachu and Martin O'Connell, "Developing Current Fertility Indicators for Foreign-Born Women from the Current Population Survey," Review of Public Data Use, Vol. 12 (1984), pp. 185-195; and Karen A. Woodrow, Jeffrey S. Passel, and Robert Warren, "Recent Immigration to the United States-Legal and Undocumented: Analysis of Data from the June 1986 Current Population Survey," paper presented at the Annual Meetings of the Population Association of America, Chicago, IL, April 30- May 2, 1987, for a discussion of the reliability of survey estimates of the foreign-born population.