Chart 1

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in 1990 and the even more devastating possibility of an Iraqi takeover of Saudi oil fields invoked the specter of Western oil supplies coming under the control of anti-Western forces. Aside from wreaking economic havoc throughout the Western world, Iraqi control -- had it been allowed to continue -- would have been detrimental to vital Western political and strategic objectives.

The rise of U.S. oil imports means a growing dependence on Persian Gulf oil. But the threats to the free flow of this oil have not abated. In particular, the region's two rogue regimes -- Iran and Iraq -- are likely to continue endangering the much weaker oil-rich Gulf Arab monarchies as long as the Mullahs and Saddam Hussein remain in power. The possibility of another war would certainly threaten the flow of oil.

In building up its military, and particularly in developing unconventional weapons, Iran is seeking to become the undisputed Persian Gulf hegemon. Should it achieve this objective, it is likely to intensify its efforts to undermine the region's weak Arab regimes. Already, Iran is suspected of involvement in recent riots in Bahrain, and has abused Saudi Arabia's hosting of Iranian pilgrims in Islam's holiest places to foment unrest there.

Motivated by dreams of grandeur, greed, and revenge, Saddam Hussein will almost certainly renew his efforts to take over neighboring oil-rich countries as soon as the sanctions against Iraq are lifted. Even the partial removal of the sanctions now being discussed may increase Saddam's appetite and resources for fresh adventures.

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The continued spread of radical Islamic fundamentalism in the Middle East poses a potential threat to Western interests. Islamist hegemony over the Persian Gulf would be antithetical to the U.S. interest in retaining free access to oil at a reasonable price, without political strings attached to such supplies. The riots in Bahrain show no sign of abating, and the recent attack on the U.S. installation in Saudi Arabia served as a warning of things to come.

Beyond the Gulf itself, stability in the wider Middle East region is crucial for the free flow of Persian Gulf oil. Threats to the stability of moderate Arab governments throughout the Middle East and North Africa indirectly continue to threaten the oil-rich conservative Arab monarchies of the Persian Gulf, whose survival is essential for the unimpeded supply of oil to the West. Since the 1950s, antiAmerican forces have brought down pro-Western governments in Egypt (1952), Iraq (1958), Yemen (1962), Syria (1963), Libya (1969), Iran (1979), and Sudan (1985).

Keeping Mass-Destruction Weapons from Rogue Mideastern States

As dangerous as the Soviet Union's vast arsenal of nuclear weapons was to the United States during the Cold War, the radical Mideastern states' emerging nuclear arsenals may become even more threatening:

Whereas Soviet leaders were cautious and rational, Middle Eastern leaders such as Saddam Hussein and Ayatollah Khomeini's successors are prone to adventurism and miscalculation. Furthermore, the hatred toward the West harbored by radical Mideastem leaders has far deeper historical roots than did the Soviet hostility to the West.

The spread of nuclear weapons to dangerous regimes such as Iraq, Iran, and Libya would pose an intolerable threat to the United States and to its vital regional interests. The record shows that all three countries have made efforts to acquire nuclear weapons; they already have used chemical weapons against their enemies, and at least two of them have biological weapons. By the year 2000 -- a mere four years from now -- Israel could be targeted by as many as 2,000 ballistic missiles deployed primarily by Iran, Iraq, Syria, and Libya more than double what Israel may face today. Many of these missiles will have chemical, biological, and possibly nuclear warheads. They will be more accurate and longer-range than the Iraqi Scuds of 1991, thus representing a much greater threat (see Chart 2).

Although Israel's destruction of the nuclear reactor near Baghdad in 1981 seriously impaired Iraq's nuclear weapons program, Iraq continued to engage in intensive work on the project. The UN has reported that had Desert Storm not occurred, Iraq would have completed the construction of a nuclear weapon by mid-1991. Saddam is still clearly bent on rearming Iraq. Unless sanctions are effectively maintained, Iraq could rebuild its former power in several years' time. Baghdad could reproduce a nuclear device within 3 to 5 years and restockpile its deadly chemical agents in less than two years. Last year it was revealed that Iraq had produced germ warfare agents capable of killing the world's population several times over. The UN believes much of this material may still exist because there are no records to support Iraq's claim that it has destroyed it. Although Iraq was forced to dismantle many of its remaining Scud missiles, it is believed many remain hidden.

Iran has embarked on a major effort to develop nuclear weapons. Although Vice President Mohadjerani's 1991 statement, "Yes, we are working on an Islamic bomb," has been strenuously denied, U.S. intelligence -- and the intelligence services of major European countries as well as of Israel -- are convinced that Iran is working on nuclear weapons and could develop one within five years with foreign support. Iran also has active chemical and biological weapons programs.

Libya, according to reliable reports, has sought to purchase nuclear weapons from China. It is building the world's largest underground chemical arms plant, which the United States has described as a grave threat to world security.

No one doubts that Iran and Iraq will continue to seek nuclear and biological arms. The possession of such weapons would provide a nonconventional umbrella for either of the two outlaw regimes to engage in operations such as a new invasion of Kuwait. Confirmation that one of these states has a military nuclear capability would greatly complicate a U.S. decision to intervene. Rogue states such as Iran or Iraq, moreover, may actually use or threaten to use nuclear weapons and other massdestruction technologies, not only against Israel, but also against their Arab neighbors, Western Europe, Russia, or even the United States.

Combating Mideast-Originated International Terrorism

Five of the seven countries currently on the State Department's list of state sponsors of terrorism (Iran, Iraq, Libya, Sudan, and Syria) are in the Middle East. Dozens of Middle Eastern groups are designated by the State Department as terrorist organizations. Since 1970, thousands of Americans have been killed, injured, or taken hostage in terrorist attacks originating in the Middle East. The World Trade Center bombing marked the first such major attack on American soil. Further attacks are likely to be perpetrated.

American diplomats, military personnel, businessmen, and tourists have all been the victims of Middle East-originated terrorism throughout the World -- aboard airliners, at airports, on cruise ships, and even in discotheques.

Hundreds of U.S. military personnel in non-combat assignments have been the victims of terrorist attacks, including 241 U.S. Marines who were killed in 1983 in a Hezbollah attack on the Marine barracks in Lebanon, and U.S. Navy diver Robert Stetham, who was murdered by Hezbollah and his body was dumped onto the tarmac at the Beirut airport in 1985 during the hijacking of TWA 847.

There is a lengthy list of American civilian victims of Middle East terrorism, including 88 people killed in 1974 when a TWA airliner was blown up; 259 people killed in the bombing of Pan Am 103 over Lockerbie, Scotland; and 6 Americans killed and over a thousand injured in the World Trade Center bombing in New York.

In addition to killing Americans, Middle East-based terrorists have engaged in massive campaigns of terrorism designed to undermine America's regional allies.

Israel -- America's closest and most reliable ally in the Middle East -- has borne the brunt of Arab terrorism. Thousands of Israelis -- including many women and children have been killed and many more wounded in countless terrorist attacks in Israel and abroad since Israel's creation in 1948. Nearly 200 Israelis were murdered during the last two years alone.

Another major Mideast U.S. ally -- Egypt -- has been terrorized by Islamic radicals for nearly two decades. President Anwar Sadat was assassinated in 1981, and numerous Egyptian government officials, security personnel, and civilians as well as foreign tourists (including 18 Greek tourists in

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a terrorist attack in Cairo earlier this month) -- have been murdered. In 1995, Egyptian Islamic radicals tried to assassinate President Hosni Mubarak in Ethiopia.

During the 1950s, 1960s, and 1970s, Jordan suffered major Palestinian terrorist campaigns. King Abdallah was assassinated in 1951, and numerous attempts on King Hussein's life were made. Senior government officials -- including a prime minister as well as security personnel, were murdered.

Terrorism has become a way of life in the Middle East. There is a broad consensus among observers that terrorism will continue for the foreseeable future.

U.S. experts are becoming increasingly alarmed by the possibility of Iraqi- or Iranian-backed terrorist attacks using biological or chemical weapons against U.S. targets. Such attacks could kill hundreds of thousands of people. Meanwhile, training camps in Iran, Iraq, Lebanon, Sudan, and Libya for Middle Eastern and Western terrorists are producing the perpetrators of future terrorist attacks.

U.S. troops in Bosnia already are threatened by Islamic radicals, led by the hundreds of Iranian Revolutionary Guards still present in the country. Today, the possibility that further Middle Eastoriginated terrorist attacks will occur in America is taken seriously by U.S. authorities.