people think it is of the utmost importance that we have more. Others say the difference in numbers is not so important as are the quality and other factors that should be taken into account.

While the compilation of statistics is basic to a study of the problem, the correct interpretation of the data and discovery of their implications for the national welfare are essential to finding the right remedies.

F. THE LEGISLATIVE QUESTION

Since the congressional interest in the problem is the primary concern of this study, the question arrived at is: What legislation, if any, should the Congress enact dealing with this problem? The Federal legislative question is obviously not a simple one.

The surface issue might be stated as: What Federal legislation, if any, should be enacted further to promote the training or development of scientific, engineering and other professional manpower? The underlying issue might be stated thus: What legislation, if any, should the Congress enact for the advancement of education in the United States, particularly by means of aid to the financing of education?

The legislative implications of the findings and conclusions from this study as related to these questions will be discussed later in this report.

91747-57-2

CHAPTER II

CONSIDERATIONS ENTERING INTO THE PROBLEM

A. INTRODUCTION AND SUMMARY

The following statement of considerations, while based to some extent upon the subsequent chapters of this report, also sets forth findings and conclusions influenced by material not specifically included in the subsequent chapters. Some of these additional sources are identified in footnotes.

Considerations entering into the problem include such matters as (1) the size of our general educational task, (2) comparisons of professional and subprofessional education in the Soviet Union and in the United States, (3) our shortages of professional personnel and the reasons therefor, (4) Federal policy and precedent in the field of education, and many other factors.

B. SIZE OF THE GENERAL EDUCATIONAL TASK

Technical and professional manpower development is an integral and inseparable part of the general educational task in the United States. The size of that task is staggering to the imagination. Within recent years its growth has been tremendous due to (1) sheer increase in number of persons to be educated, and (2) rapid and far-reaching changes in the variety and scope of subject matter to be taught.

The total population of the United States grew from 162,114,000 in the fall of 1954 to about 168,029,000 in the fall of 1956-about 3 million a year.

In 1936 the Census Bureau predicted the population of the United States might reach 165 million in the year 2,000. The 165 million figure was actually reached in 1955. The number of babies born in this country increased from 2,500,000 in 1936 to about 4,250,000 in 1956. Every day adds several thousand people to the population of our country.

From the fall of 1954 to the fall of 1956 the population aged 5 to 17 years increased nearly 3 million. The enrollment in elementary and secondary schools increased over 2 million in the 2-year period.1

The estimated college and university enrollment in 1956-57 is 3,232,000 as compared with last year's 2,996,000. While in 1900 only 8 percent of those in the 14 to 21 age group were in school or college, now 62 percent of that age group are in school or college.

Unlike the governments of some other countries, our form of government calls for education for all of our people. Alexander J. Stoddard has pointed out that "Education is the means through which

1 U. S. Office of Education. Supplement to Circular No. 490, January 1957. Ibid., press release dated September 2, 1956.

our country's purposes are realized and through which the country itself is perpetuated." 3

Our national policy and philosophy of education call for searching out and fully developing the talents of each child. The weaknesses of each one are to be studied and, so far as possible, corrected. The national ideal demands opportunity for every American to attain the highest level of education and training of which he is capable.*

The demands are constantly increasing for more and better education. The number of vocations requiring specialized training has multiplied. A citizen must have a fairly broad general education fully to understand his daily newspaper and intelligently to participate in ordinary affairs of government. In every field of subject matter the content and significance for modern living have multiplied. "Yet relatively we seem to be falling behind in the race between ignorance and wisdom." 5

This contemplation of the size of our educational problem as a whole leads to the consideration of some of its elements which are of particular concern in this study of scientific, engineering, and other professional manpower development.

C. COMPARISON OF UNITED STATES-U. S. S. R. SCIENTIFIC TRAINING

Although there seems to be some question as to whether the United States or the Soviet Union now has more scientists and engineers, there is no doubt that educational institutions in the Soviet Union are now annually awarding more degrees in science and engineering than are colleges and universities in the United States. Many persons regard this fact alone as indicative of a great danger to this country. Perhaps so, but there are important observations affecting the significance of numbers.

There is some opinion that the Soviets already have an overproduction of scientists and engineers, and that many of their people trained in science and engineering are being utilized in other fields. Although in some respects the training given Soviet engineers and scientists. compares favorably with the best in America, there are weaknesses in the Soviet educational system. These include political-doctrinal domination of education, general rigidity of subject matter, and stereotyped teaching. On the other hand, in the United States there are weaknesses resulting from shortage of competent science teachers in secondary schools, loss of enrollment between high school and college, and dropout of able students after college entrance.

For 2 years an assessment of Soviet scientific education has been in progress at Massachusetts Institute of Technology. The director of the project has concluded that scientific training in the U. S. S. R. is generally excellent in the universities, but much below western standards in engineering schools.

In making comparisons between scientific personnel and training in the United States and the Soviet Union, it is important to bear in mind also the great political, economic, and social differences. The

a Stoddard, Alexander J., Schools for Tomorrow: An Educator's Blueprint. Fund for the Advancement of Education, 1957, p. 15.

Ideals expressed in statements from the President's Committee for the White House Conference on Education and from the American Council on Education.

5 Stoddard, Alexander J., op. cit., p. 17.

How Good Is Soviet Science? Fortune, February 1957, p. 120.

resultant differences in training and utilization of personnel in the two countries makes comparison of numbers less meaningful.

In education, not only are the organizational and administrative structures different, but the aims and methods are different. Throughout the Soviet system great stress is placed on specialized technical education. In the United States recognition is given to the necessity of combining technical training with other forms of education for the maintenance of a democratic society.

This is not to minimize the quality and effectiveness of Soviet technical education. It is only to draw attention to some of the inconsistencies in a numbers race with the Soviets.

Some impressive testimony concerning the high quality of Soviet training in the sciences has recently appeared in print.

On February 14, 1957, Dr. Edward Teller, world-renowned American physicist who was intimately associated with the development of the hydrogen bomb, stated that the United States cannot keep its lead in science. In an address before the Air Force Association Jet Age Conference in Washington, he said that "10 years from now the best scientists in the world will be found in Russia." He pointed to the Soviets' devotion to technological training and their elevation of the position of scientists, and advocated raising the standards of the scientists in the United States and increasing the pay of high-school science teachers."

D. OUR SHORTAGE OF SCIENTISTS AND ENGINEERS

Consideration of our needs without reference to Russia is also advisable. Several studies have shown that there is a growing demand for scientists and engineers in the United States. A 1956 study by the B. H. Goodrich Co. led to the conclusion that unless we take steps to increase our present rate of graduation there will be a shortage of perhaps 100,000 scientists and engineers in this country 10 years hence. However, some persons have predicted that the present shortages will gradually diminish from effects of the increased postwar birth rate, larger enrollments of students for college training in shortage fields, and other factors.

Within the last several years there have been large increases in college and university enrollments for courses in science and engineering. Greater numbers of high-school seniors ranking high scholastically are choosing careers in fields in which there are national shortages of personnel.

The National Science Foundation has estimated that at the present rates of graduation there will be between 71,000 and 87,000 science and engineering graduates a year by 1960 and between 103,000 and 113,000 by 1965.

However, available data do not offer great hope for quick reduction of our trained manpower shortages.

Speaking before the Air Force Association Jet Age Conference in Washington on February 14, 1957, Dr. Detlev W. Bronk, president of the National Academy of Sciences, said that our national need for more and better trained manpower is "desperate."

7 Yarborough, Charles J. United States Can't Keep Its Lead in Science, Teller Says. Washington Star, February 14, 1957, p. 1.

Addressing the same meeting, Lt. Gen. C. S. Irvine, Deputy Chief of Staff for Air Force Materiel, said that failure to meet demands for highly trained specialists and technicians will—

cancel out our present achievements and nullify our prospects for projecting security and prosperity into the future."

E. REASONS FOR SHORTAGE OF SCIENTISTS AND ENGINEERS Various reasons for our shortage of scientists and engineers have been given in recent writings. It is apparent that a basic reason is the increase in demand caused by revolutionary scientific discoveries, and technological advances in general. The ratio of scientists and engineers to the total working population has increased greatly in recent decades, but not sufficiently to meet the demands of our sciencedominated economy.

Growth of the demand is seen in data compiled by the National Science Foundation, which has estimated that, in relation to the number in 1955, by 1970 the need for highly trained scientific and technical personnel will (1) nearly double for high-school teaching, (2) increase from 169,000 to 495,000 for college and university teaching, grow from 700,000 to 1,550,000 for engineering jobs, and markedly increase for research and development-for which expenditures are expected to grow from $5.5 billion to $8.1 billion.

Advances in the use of atomic energy and other developments have caused a demand not only for greater numbers of scientists and engineers but also for much more advanced training-which many students have had insufficient motivation to undertake.

After World War II, there was a widespread expectation that the need for scientists and engineers would be reduced. As a result, many students were counseled against undertaking scientific and engineering

courses.

The low birthrate of the prewar years also contributed to the present personnel shortages, along with financial difficulties of some students, dropout of able students for lack of motivation, the period out for military service, and other causes which will be brought out later in this discussion. Generally these are offspring or close relatives of the ever-present, overall problem of financing education.

F. SALARIES AND PRESTIGE OF SCIENTISTS

An important consideration in the scientific manpower problem is the income and position of the scientist in our society. While young graduate engineers are now being offered salaries which appear very high in comparison with those offered a few years ago, the income of research scientists generally has remained low. Many of these are employed by or in connection with educational institutions and their salaries are affected by the financial problems of higher education in general.

A recent salary summary published by Engineers Joint Council revealed that teachers of engineering in the higher academic ranks, especially in large institutions with excellent reputations, are, partly through consulting work, earning as much as engineers in industry. In certain other branches of science, notably physics, chemistry, and geology, this is likewise the case. On the other hand the instructors in

Yarborough, Charles J. Op. cit.