(5) Enrollment in elementary algebra equaled 64.5 percent of the number of pupils in the 9th grade.

(6) Enrollment in plane geometry equaled 37.4 percent of the number of pupils in the 10th grade.

(7) Enrollment in intermediate algebra equaled 28.5 percent of the number of pupils in the 11th grade.

(8) Enrollment in trigonometry and in solid geometry equaled approximately 13 percent of the number of pupils in the 12th grade.

Some other findings from the study were

(1) Of those schools with 10th grade pupils, 89 percent offered biology.

(2) Those schools without biology were small ones enrolling only 3.3 percent of all 10th grade pupils.

(3) Approximately half of the schools offered physics and approximately half offered chemistry. The schools with neither physics nor chemistry were small ones enrolling only 5.8 percent of all 12th grade pupils.

(4) General mathematics was offered by 70.8 percent of the schools, elementary algebra by 89.8 percent, and plane geometry by 78 percent.

(5) Only about half of the schools offered solid geometry and trigonometry.

Unequal educational opportunities and unequal teacher loads were shown by the data on offerings, enrollments and class size.

I. CAREER CHOICE BY TOP STUDENTS

Information concerning choice of career by top high school graduates was obtained from a survey completed by the National Association of Secondary School Principals in 1956. The information was gathered from more than 12,000 young people who ranked scholastically in the top 5 percent of their high school graduating classes.

In connection with an annual scholarship competition administered by the National Association of Secondary School Principals, competing members of the National Honor Society (sponsored by that association) discussed their career plans. The contestants were all seniors standing in the highest 5 percent of their respective classes in 1956. These young people replied to questions as to what major courses they expected to pursue in college and what careers they had

chosen.

Tabulation of the results showed teaching to be the choice of the greatest number, with engineering, science research, and medicine following in the order named. The career choices, by number and by percentage of the total of 12,154 students, were as follows:

Of the 3,654 students who expressed the choice of teaching as a career, only 455 are boys. These figures do not support great hope for reduction of the teacher shortage, since many of the girls will give up their professional careers for matrimony.

Of the 2,029 students who said that they had chosen engineering only 59 are girls.

The reporters of the survey stated that lack of money annually prevents about 200,000 competent young people from going to college, and that a great increase in the number of scholarships would increase our supply of trained personnel about 50 percent.

J. COLLEGE ENROLLMENTS AND DEGREES

In a 1956 publication giving data on college enrollments and degrees the Director of the Research and Statistical Services Branch of the United States Office of Education said in part:

With a well-recognized and serious shortage of teachers and engineers, special interest attaches to the enrollment in teachers' colleges and technological schools. * * * In general, the rise of enrollment in technological schools in the last 4 years has not been more rapid than the rise of enrollment in general. *** Among teachers' colleges the differential has been more favorable, though still not strong. *** Granted that the situation is not simple, that universities as well as separately organized professional schools train teachers and engineers, and that liberal arts colleges are both a source of teachers and a "feeder" for technological schools, it is still difficult to resist the conclusion from the data that students are not being attracted to teaching and engineering in the numbers desirable. This is a problem of grave national concern."

Another 1956 statistical report from the United States Office of Education pointed out that—

The current shortage of engineers appears to be part of a general shortage in the professional fields, caused in part by the low birth rates of the 1930's, in part by an expanding economy (creating a greater demand for professional services), and in part by the interruption of college careers by war and military service. An additional factor, in the case of engineering, is the increasingly technological nature of our economy. Rising college enrollments in certain fields, however, give promise of some improvement in the manpower situation. Thus, the annual increase in engineering enrollment from 1951 to 1955 have been 6.6, 9.5, 10.9, and 13.4 percent, respectively. These are large increases, even if not large enough to provide a prompt solution to the problem of the engineer shortage.10

The following projections of enrollments and degrees were released by the Office of Education in 1956:

Projections of regular session enrollment in institutions of higher education in continental United States: 1955-56 to 1970-71

U. S. Department of Health, Education, and Welfare, Office of Education. No. 460, 1956, 46 pages.

Circular

10 U. S. Department of Health, Education, and Welfare, Office of Education, Circular No. 468, 1956, 35 pages.

Projections of bachelor's and first professional degrees to be conferred in the continental United States, by major categories of curricula-1955-56 to 1965-66

In December 1956 the Association of American Colleges reported its findings from a survey of college enrollment plans for the next 15 years. The survey covered plans of 515 liberal arts colleges-69 percent of all liberal arts colleges in the United States.

These institutions gave estimates of the numbers of men and women they would be willing to accept as full-time students in 4-year undergradute courses in the liberal arts and sciences in the academic years 1960-61, 1965-66, and 1970-71. Estimates were requested on two hypotheses: (1) That the present endowment and capital equipment of the college would not be increased or would be increased only in a manner definitely foreseeable at the time of answering; (2) that the college's capital resources could be increased to any extent necessary to correspond with its educational policy.

Following is a summary of the data obtained for all institutions responding.1

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Hypothesis (1)—Prospective enrollments with foreseeable capital resources (515 institutions)

Hypothesis (2)—Prospective enrollments with unlimited capital resources

Enrollment 1960–61.

Enrollment 1965–66

Enrollment 1970-71

(515 institutions)

942, 450 (34 percent over 1955–56) 1, 116, 200 (59 percent over 1955-56) 1, 275, 550 (82 percent over 1955-56)

Among other points of interest, the data showed that a 20-percent increase in enrollment is all that can be expected of 4-year liberal arts colleges in the next 5 years unless they obtain capital resources beyond what can now be foreseen. This evidence bcomes more significant when considered in relation to the fact that in a single academic year, 1954-55 to 1955-56, the enrollments in liberal arts colleges increased 10 percent. The report of the survey concluded that:

This throws into sharp perspective the need for a speedy and substantial increase in financial support.

"Data were tabulated for various types of institutions, such as independent colleges and tax-supported colleges.

L. TEACHER SUPPLY AND DEMAND

The problem of getting enough good teachers and keping them is an important part of the long-range problem of technical and professional manpower development.

1. Elementary and high-school teachers

For a number of years an annual report on elementary and highschool teachers supply and demand has been prepared in the research division of the National Education Association in cooperation with the National Commission on Teacher Education and Professional Standards. Here are some of the facts and implications brought out in the 1956 report."

Prospects for a total of 96,079 new teachers graduating in June 1956, marking a 9.9 increase over the June 1955 total, were revealed in the study. Even more encouraging were figures showing a corresponding increase in every one of the high school teaching fields.

However, the proof of the pudding will lie in the number of these graduates who will be induced to accept teaching positions in the face of other competition for their services. The study showed that only 71 percent of the prepared teachers who graduated in 1955 actu-. ally entered the profession. The figure ran as high as 81.6 percent for elementary school teachers and 69.4 percent for English teachers but as low as 46.6 percent for chemistry and 55 percent for biology teachers.

The report stated that schools would need 175,000 new teachers by September 1956. This estimate included those needed to meet increased enrollments, to relieve overcrowding and half-day schedules, to expand educational programs in neglected areas, to replace the most unprepared teachers then in service, and to fill the vacancies of 85,000 qualified teachers expected to leave the profession in 1956.

Many of the teachers who would leave, according to the report, would be

among the best and in the fields of greatest shortage. The sheer financial loss in the existing routine-recruiting, preparing, inducting into service, then quickly forfeiting the fruits of these costly efforts-is scarcely equaled anywhere in American occupational life. In truth, increased efforts to retain good teachers can strike a telling blow at the teacher shortage.

The report emphasized that

The overriding need-the fundamental issue-is to bring the whole teaching profession to a higher level of appeal to talented youth.

In November 1956, the National Education Association issued a report containing estimates of elementary and secondary school teacher shortages for the school year 1956-57. On the basis of data supplied by State and Territorial departments of education and education associations, the association reported

(a) A national shortage of 180,000 qualified teachers.

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(b) Approximately 80,000 teachers employed by school systems without full qualifications for standard certificates.

The problem of personnel turnover showed up as a major factor in the teacher shortage. On the basis of records from 42 States, the total annual turnover was estimated to be 114,000 teachers. Of these, ac

12 The 1956 Teacher Supply and Demand Report. Journal of Teacher Education, March

cording to the report, about 92,000 will drop out of teaching and need to be replaced. About half of the 80,000 emergency teachers will also need to be replaced, and employment of approximately 48,000 new teachers will be essential to reduction of oversized classes. This makes a total of 180,000—the NEA's estimate of the total need for additional teachers in 1956-57.

Perhaps the principal consideration in the teacher shortage is the salary schedule.

The average salary of elementary and high school teachers is increasing slowly. It is now $4,025 for elementary and $4,560 for highschool teachers. The average for classroom teachers is $4,420. However, close to 71,000 teachers are being paid less than $2,500.

The salaries vary markedly among the States. Seven States reported the salaries of more than 25 percent of their teachers were below $2,500. On the other hand, 20 States reported that more than 25 percent of their classroom teachers are receiving $4,500 or over per year.13 2. Teachers in degree-granting institutions

Data on teacher supply and demand in degree-granting institutions for the school year 1954-55 were reported by the research division of the National Education Association in December 1955. Some of the data and major conclusions expressed in that report are:

Little is known about the nature of the amount of the demand for teachers by the colleges and universities of the Nation. However, participation by a substantial percentage of the degree-granting institutions in this investigation suggests that data obtained from it are indicative of conditions in the Nation as a whole.

The number of institutions that reported shortage of qualified teachers observed during 1953-54 or 1954-55 in each general field of teaching are:

Number of institutions reporting-644.

The data supported the widespread belief that the greatest shortage of qualified college teachers is in the physical sciences. A total of 446 of the reporting institutions emphasized this. Next in frequency of observed shortage was in mathematics, reported by 187 institutions. Then followed education, reported by 109 institutions, and business and commerce, reported by 102 institutions. Every teaching field was included and only 26 of the institutions indicated that no shortage had been observed within the past 2 years.

National Education Association, Research Division. Advance Estimates of Public Elementary and Secondary Schools for the School year 1956-57, November 1956, 23 pp.