Chapter 7 INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS The phenomenon of an aging society is not unique to the United States. With worldwide advances in medical care and population control, many nations around the world face the prospect of an increasingly older population. This worldwide aging trend raises concerns about the ability of the world as a whole to provide for the health and income needs of a population that lives longer in retirement. Often in the debate over the future of aging policy in this country, public officials lose sight of the similarities between our problems and those faced by our neighbors around the world. Yet in many ways, the changes that will occur in this country are mild by comparison to those that must occur in developing nations and even in other developed countries. This chapter presents some of the scant international data on aging trends to provide a basis for placing our experience in the United States in the context of the worldwide aging trend. The countries selected for comparison are a cross-section of European and non-European developed countries and developing countries from various continents.1 A. AGE DISTRIBUTION THE UNITED STATES HAS THE THIRD LARGEST ELDERLY POPULATION (AGE 65 PLUS) AND THE LARGEST "OLD-OLD" POPULATION (AGE 80 PLUS) IN THE WORLD The 1985 U.S. population of 28.6 million persons age 65 and older is the third largest in the world after China and India. The 1985 U.S. population of 6.2 million persons 80 and older is the largest in the world, with 100,000 more people in this age group than China. 1 Data for this chapter is from U.S. Bureau of the Census An Aging World, 1986, and was provided to the Committee in advance of publication by Barbara Boyle Torrey. Age 65 plus: India.. United States. Soviet Union... Japan.. West Germany United Kingdom.. Italy France.. Indonesia. Brazil Age 80 plus: United States China...... Soviet Union... TABLE 7-1.-NATIONS RANKED BY SIZE OF ELDERLY POPULATION India.. Japan West Germany France.. United Kingdom... Italy. Source: U.S. Census Bureau. An Aging World, 1986. SWEDEN HAS THE OLDEST POPULATION IN THE WORLD. THE PROPORTION OF ELDERLY IN THE U.S. POPULATION IS IN THE MIDDLE RANGE OF DEVELOPED NATIONS-SMALLER THAN EUROPEAN COUNTRIES BUT GREATER THAN NON-EUROPEAN DEVELOPED COUNTRIES Sweden currently has the oldest population in the world with 16.9 percent over age 65. The elderly population in other Western European countries ranges between 12 and 15 percent of the total population. While only 12 percent of the U.S. population is 65 and older, this is a larger percentage than in both Canada and Japan. THE WORLD IS AGING. IN DEVELOPED NATIONS, THE PROPORTION OF THE POPULATION 65 AND OVER IS EXPECTED TO AS MUCH AS DOUBLE BY 2025 The elderly population will increase as a percentage of the total population throughout the world over the next 40 years. By 2025, in most developed countries, one in five persons will be age 65 and older. Japan and Canada will experience the greatest increase in the developed world of the percentage of the population that is elderly. In the developing world, the concentration of elderly in the population will begin by 2025 to approximate today's concentration in the developed countries. SOURCE: U.S. Bureau of the Census. An Aging World. Forthcoming, 1986. Although the oldest-old are expected to grow as a proportion of the population over the next 40 years, they are now only 2 to 4 percent of the population in the developed world, and will grow by 2025 to only 3 to 5 percent in most developed countries. Of the developed nations, Japan will experience the greatest increase in the proportion of the population 80 and older-from 1.7 percent in 1985 to almost 5 percent in 2025. The United States and Canada will also have a substantial increase in the proportion in the oldest ages. In most of the developing world, the oldest-old will still account for less than 2 percent of the population by 2025. SOURCE: U.S. Bureau of the Census. An Aging World. Forthcoming, 1986. THE U.S. GROWTH RATE IN THE 65 TO 74 AGE POPULATION WILL BE AMONG THE WORLD'S SLOWEST OVER THE NEXT 20 YEARS AND AMONG THE MOST RAPID IN THE DEVELOPED WORLD IN THE SUBSEQUENT 20 YEARS Over the next 20 years (1985 to 2005) the United States will have an unusually slow growth rate in the young elderly population of 0.26 percent, largely as a result of low birth rates during the 1930's. With the exception of Sweden and the United Kingdom, much of the rest of the world will have a more rapid growth in the elderly population. Japan's rate of growth in the elderly population during this period will be the most rapid in the developed world, over 10 times that of the United States at 2.70 percent. In the subsequent 20 years (2005 to 2025), the United States will experience a very rapid rate of growth in its young elderly population, as a result of the aging of America's "baby boom." Although Canada, Sweden, and the United Kingdom will experience a similar acceleration in the rate of growth of the elderly population, other developed countries will experience a slow-down in the rate of growth during this period. Japan will have a particularly sharp drop-off in the rate of growth in its young elderly population |