persons lived in homes infested with rats and mice, 30 percent lived in housing with bedrooms which lacked privacy, and almost 15 percent of male renters aged 65 to 69 were without telephones. -The elderly and the near elderly are the most likely age groups to vote. Data for the 1980, 1982, and 1984 elections demonstrate that about one-third of all voters are age 55 or older. Federal expenditures on the elderly: -Federal spending on the elderly has nearly doubled since 1960. In 1986, 28 percent of the Federal budget, $270 billion, was of direct benefit to older Americans. -In the future, rising health care costs will gradually overtake Federal spending for retirement income as the source of greatest increase in Federal spending on the elderly. Projections for 2030 indicate that spending, as a percent of GNP, will equal 6.3 percent for Social Security and disability payments, compared to 6.4 percent for Medicare financing and other Federal health care programs. In 1986, spending for Social Security and disability equaled 4.9 percent of GNP. Federal health spending was only 3 percent of GNP in 1986. International comparisons: -The United States has the third-largest elderly population (age 65+) and the largest "old-old" population (age 80+) in the world. -The world is aging. In developed nations, the proportion of the population 65 and over is expected to as much as double over the next 40 years. By 2025, in most developed countries, one in five persons will be age 65 and older. -Over the next 20 years (1985 to 2005) the United States will have one of the world's slowest growth rates in the young elderly population. In the subsequent 20 years (2005 to 2025), the United States will experience one of the most rapid rates of growth in its elderly population, as a result of the aging of the "baby boom" population. -The longest life expectancy at birth is in Japan-77.1 years in 1985. Life expectancy in the United States-74.6 years-is about average for the developed world. -The U.S. dependency ratio, or ratio of children and aged to working-age adults, in 1985 was about average for the developed world. By 2025 the total U.S. ratio is expected to be among the highest in the world, largely because of the rise in the proportion of elderly in the population. -Americans are more likely to work after age 65 than those in most other developed nations-with the exception of the Japa nese. -Only one-third (35 percent) of the income of younger elderly families age 65 to 74 in the United States and Canada came from social insurance in 1979 to 1981, compared to half or more than half of the income of younger elderly families in some of the other developed countries. -The poverty rates among the elderly in the United States, United Kingdom, and Israel are among the highest in the developed world. -Like much of the rest of the developed world, the United States is expected to experience a low rate of growth in Government pension costs over the next 40 years. -U.S. Government expenditures on medical care are expected to grow over the next 40 years at one of the most rapid rates in the developed world. The United States now spends one of the highest shares of its gross domestic product on medical care in the world. The age group 65-plus is used most often in this report to represent the elderly population. While the attainment of age 65 no longer marks the point of retirement for most workers, it is the age of eligibility for full Social Security benefits and for Medicare coverage. Perhaps most importantly, 65 is the age traditionally used to demarcate the older population for many statistical analyses. The characteristics of this broad age group are, when possible, compared with those of persons in subgroups such as 55-plus, 75-plus, or 85-plus. Occasionally, the age groups 60-plus or 55-plus are used as descriptors of the "older" population for certain purposes. Unfortunately, the available data often limit the amount of age detail that can be presented. Chapter 1 SIZE AND GROWTH OF THE OLDER POPULATION The older population has increased far more rapidly than the rest of the population for most of this century. In the last two decades alone, the 65-plus population grew by 54 percent while the under-65 population increased by only 24 percent. Since 1960, an average of 149,000 persons a month have joined the ranks of the elderly. This type of demographic change is unprecedented and bears one dramatic conclusion: America is growing older. The following chapter looks at the impact of this aging trend on the population as a whole and on various subgroups within the 65plus population. Please note that the projections presented in this section and throughout this report do not imply certainty about future events. They represent forecasts based on continued patterns from the past and assumptions about future trends in fertility, mortality, and net immigration. A. 1985 AGE DISTRIBUTION THE OLDER POPULATION HAS DOUBLED IN THIS CENTURY AS A At the beginning of this century, less than 1 in 10 Americans was 55 and over and 1 in 25 was age 65 and over. By 1985, 1 in 5 Americans was at least 55 years old and 1 in 9 was at least 65. This century's dramatic increase in the number and proportion of older persons is reflected in the 1985 population estimates prepared by the U.S. Census Bureau. In 1985, there were an estimated 50.9 million Americans age 55 or older and 28.5 million who were at least age 65. About 9 percent (22.3 million) of the total population was 55 to 64 years old, 7 percent (17 million) was 65 to 74 years old, 4 percent (8.8 million) was 75 to 84 years old, and 1 percent (2.7 million) was about 85 years old and over (table 1-1). 1 Soldo, Beth J. and Kenneth G. Manton. The Graying of America: Demographic Challenges for Socioeconomic Planning. The Journal of Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, 1984, in press. (7) All ages.. 0 to 54... 55 to 64. 65 to 74. 75 to 84. 85-plus. TABLE 1-1.-DISTRIBUTION OF THE POPULATION BY OLDER AGE GROUPS, 1985 55-plus.. 65-plus.. Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census, Current Population Reports, Series P-25, No. 985 Chart 1-1 displays the country's age distribution in 1985 and gives a glimpse into the future. The "baby-boom" generation (age 20 to 39) which dominates the picture, is the result of increased fertility after World War II-from 1946 to 1962. This generation will dominate the age distribution of the country well into next century. In fact, when this group begins to collect Social Security benefits in the early part of the 21st century, they will swell the ranks of the 65-plus generation to the point that one in five Americans will be elderly. 65 to 69 60 to 64 55 to 59 50 to 54 45 to 49 40 to 44 35 to 39 30 to 34 25 to 29 20 to 24 15 to 19 10 to 14 5 to 9 under 5 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 MILLIONS OF PERSONS SOURCE: U.S. Bureau of the Census, Current Population Reports, Series P-25, No. 952 Chart 1-1 also provides a graphic representation (by 5-year age intervals) of the size of the older population in relation to the younger population. In 1985, the population over 55 was 21 percent of the total U.S. population and the elderly population, age 65-plus, was 12 percent. The common assumption is that today's large numbers and proportion of older persons are caused by increased longevity. In fact, the rise in longevity explains only part of the increase. The primary cause is an increase in the annual number of births prior to 1920 and after World War II.2 The aging of the pre-1920's group, along with a dramatic decline in the birth rate after the mid1960's, has contributed to the rise in the median age of the U.S. 2 Siegel, Jacob S. and Maria Davidson. Demographic and Socioeconomic Status of Aging in the United States. U.S. Bureau of the Census, Current Population Reports. Series P-23, No. 138. 1984. |