per 100 and is expected to increase rapidly to 38 per 100 by 2050 (chart 1-8 and table 1-4).

SUPPORT
RATIO

1900.

1920

1940

1960.

1980.

1990.

2000

2010.

2020.

2030.

2040.

2050.

1900 1920 1940

1960

1980 2000 2020 2040 YEAR

SOURCE: U.S. Bureau of the Census, Current Population Reports, Series P-25, No. 952 TABLE 1-4.-YOUNG, ELDERLY AND TOTAL SUPPORT RATIOS, 1900-2050

Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census, Decennial Census, 1980 and Projections of the Population of the United States by Sex and Race; 1983 to 2050: Series P-25. No. 952.

The support ratio is important in economic terms because the working population can be thought of as supporting nonworking age groups. However, a "support" or dependency ratio is a crude measure since many younger and older persons are in the labor force and not dependent while many persons of labor force age may

not be working. Dramatic changes in fertility rates could also shift projections. Although the total support ratio (young and old combined) is expected to increase in the next century, it has declined substantially since 1900. This would suggest that fewer economic demands are currently placed on working age Americans for supporting the young and the old.

From a public policy standpoint, however, the decline in the total support ratio, caused by a large decline in the number of children, masks the rise in the elderly support ratio. This is an important distinction because it is primarily publicly funded programs which serve the elderly while mostly private (i.e., family) funds are directed toward support of the young. Nonetheless, the increasing demands on public programs caused by a burgeoning elderly population are, in large part, offset by declining demands on private funds for supporting children.

E. LIFE EXPECTANCY

THE UPWARD TREND IN LIFE EXPECTANCY IS CONTINUING

The average expectation of life at birth reached a record high in 1985. This increase continues a remarkable upward trend in life expectancy since the beginning of the century. The greatest gains occurred during the first half of the century largely due to dramatic reductions in deaths from infectious disease. A baby born in 1900 could expect to live an average of 47.3 years, while a baby born in 1985 could expect to live 74.7 years (table 1-5). Although in the early part of this century, increases in life expectancy were due to decreases in deaths of infants and children, most of the increasing life expectancy since 1970 has been due to decreased mortality among the middle-aged and elderly population.

TABLE 1-5.-LIFE EXPECTANCY AT BIRTH AND AT AGE 65 BY RACE AND SEX, 1981-85

Source: National Center for Health Statistics: Health, United States, 1985. DHHS Pub. No. (PHS) 86-1232, Dec. 1985. NCHS: unpublished data.

THE GAP IN FEMALE/MALE LIFE EXPECTANCY APPEARS TO BE

DECREASING

Throughout this century, improvement in the years an individual can expect to live has been more significant for women than for men (chart 1-9 and table 1-6). For instance, from 1950 to 1980, life expectancy at birth for the total population advanced by 5.5 years. For women, however, life expectancy at birth advanced by about 6.3 years; men advanced by only 4.4 years. Now, however, the gap in female/male life expectancy appears to be decreasing slightly. Between 1981 and 1985, life expectancy for males at birth increased by eight-tenths of a year, slightly more than the fourtenths of a year gain for females. The female/male differential in life expectancy was 7.1 years in 1985, as compared to 7.6 years in 1980 and 7.8 years in 1970.

SOURCE: Social Security Administration; Social Security Area Population Projections, 1986;
Actuarial Study No. 97, Alternative II

TABLE 1-6.-LIFE EXPECTANCY AT BIRTH AND AGE 65 BY SEX AND CALENDAR YEAR, 1900-2050

Source: Social Security Administration; Social Security Area Population Projections, 1986; Actuarial Study No. 97, Alternative II.

Americans who reached their 65th birthdays in 1985 could expect, on average, to live another 16.8 years. Since 1900, life expectancy at age 65 has advanced significantly. Although life expectancy at birth showed greater increases in the first half of the century than life expectancy at age 65, in recent years, life expectancy at age 65 has been increasing more rapidly. According to estimates from the Social Security Administration (SSA), elderly men gained 3.1 years from 1900 to 1985 and elderly women gained 6.8 years. SSA's projections for the future suggest that elderly men can expect to gain an additional 3 years by the year 2050, while women could expect to gain an additional 3.9 years.

LIFE EXPECTANCY FOR BLACKS IS GROWING

Life expectancy at birth differs according to race, with whites living longer than blacks. However, this gap is also narrowing. In 1950, life expectancy at birth for whites was more than 8 years longer than for blacks. In 1985, the difference was 5.8 years. From 1981 to 1985, the black population showed an increase of six-tenths a year in life expectancy, compared to five-tenths a year for the white population. Differences in life expectancy by race at age 65, however, are smaller in terms of number of years and have been

for decades. In 1985, at age 65, blacks could expect to live 15.5 more years, 1.3 years less than whites at that age. However, in relative terms, white life expectancy both at birth and at age 65 is about 8 percent higher than black life expectancy. This relationship reverses in later years. In fact, life expectancy is higher for blacks after age 80 than for whites.

WHITE WOMEN LIVE THE LONGEST

A significant hierarchy is evident for life expectancy of males and females by race. White females have the highest life expectancy at birth, followed by black females, white males, then black males. The largest recent gain in life expectancy has been for black females. From 1970 to 1985, black females gained 5.4 years, black males 5.2 years, white males 3.8 years and white females 3.1 years.

F. VETERANS

TWO-THIRDS OF ALL ELDERLY MEN WILL BE VETERANS BY 2000 Although the total veteran population is expected to decrease over the next five decades, the number and proportion of older veterans is increasing. This will result in considerable strain on the Veteran's Administration health care system as large numbers of veterans age. In 1980, more than one in four of all American men 65 and over were veterans, or 27 percent. By the year 2000, close to two-thirds, 63 percent, of all elderly males will be veterans and eligible for benefits. This change is temporary, however. The proportion of veterans in the 65-plus male population will actually decrease after the turn of the century-by 2010 only half of elderly males will be veterans; by 2020 only slightly over one-third will be veterans.

In 1986, there were 5.507 million veterans age 65 plus, 19.9 percent of all veterans. The number of veterans is correlated with periods of armed conflict. Chart 1-10 displays the "waves" of veterans according to their period of wartime service. (This chart does not include peacetime veterans.) By the year 2000, there are expected to be 9 million elderly veterans. This number will drop back to 8.1 million in 2010 and 7.8 million in 2020.