sons 85 and over. By the turn of the century, half of the elderly population are expected to be age 65 to 74 and half will be age 75 or older (table 1-2 and chart 1-6). SOURCE: U.S. Bureau of the Census, Current Population Reports, Series P-25, No. 952 B. RACE AND ETHNICITY THE NONWHITE POPULATION HAS A SMALLER PROPORTION OF Today, the nonwhite population (black and other) has a smaller proportion of elderly than the white population (table 1-3). In 1985, 13 percent of whites were age 65 and over compared to only 7 percent of nonwhites. The difference is a result of higher fertility and higher mortality below the age of 65 for the nonwhite population than the white population. These proportions are expected to remain relatively stable over the next couple of decades. However, beginning in the early part of the next century, the proportion of elderly persons is expected to increase at a higher rate for the nonwhite population than for the white population. By 2025, the elderly portion of the nonwhite population is expected to increase by 75 percent compared to a 62-percent increase for the white population. And from 2025 to 2050, the proportion of elderly within the nonwhite population is projected to increase another 29 percent compared to a 10-percent increase for the white population. ELDERLY WHITES DISPROPORTIONATELY OUTNUMBER ELDERLY Whites are disproportionately represented in the elderly population. In 1985, 90 percent of the 65-plus population were white and 10 percent were nonwhite, while in the total population, 85 percent were white and 15 percent were nonwhite (table 1-3). In the next century, the nonwhite portion of the elderly population is expected to grow. By 2025, 15 percent of the elderly population is expected to be nonwhite and by 2050 this figure is expected to reach 19 percent. Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census, Estimates of the Population of the United States, by Age, Sex, and Race: 1980 to 1985. Series P-25, No. 985. Percents may not add to 100 due to rounding. C. SEX RATIOS OLDER WOMEN OUTNUMBER OLDER MEN The ratio of females to males varies dramatically with age. In the under 20 age group, for instance, there were 34.5 million women versus 36.1 million men in 1985. The 30 to 34 year age group was evenly balanced at about 10.2 million each. But, for the 65-plus age group there were 17 million women and 11.5 million men. Elderly women now outnumber elderly men three to two, a considerable change from 1960 when the ratio of elderly females to elderly males was five to four. This disparity becomes more marked in the upper age ranges. In 1985, there were 82 men between 65 and 69 years for every 100 women in that same age group. Among those 85 and over, there were only 40 men for every 100 women (chart 1-7). These statistics reflect the fact that, on the average, women live longer than men and, therefore, are more likely to end up living alone. Because of these factors, elderly women average a longer period of retirement than elderly men. CHART 1-7 NUMBER OF MEN PER 100 WOMEN BY ELDERLY AGE GROUP SOURCE: U.S. Bureau of the Census, Current Population Reports, D. SUPPORT RATIO THE RATIO OF ELDERLY TO WORKING AGE PERSONS IS INCREASING DRAMATICALLY The fact that people are living longer and families are having fewer children is changing the shape of the "elderly support ratio" (the number of 65-plus persons to persons of working age, 18 to 64 years). The average family in the early 1900's had four children; today, the average family has only two children. This factor combined with the fact that average life expectancy has advanced by 26 years since 1900 is resulting in growth in the ratio of elderly persons compared to persons of working age (chart 1-8 and table 14). In 1900, there were about 7 elderly persons for every 100 persons of working age; in 1985, this ratio was about 19 elderly persons per 100 of working age. By 2020, the ratio will rise to about 29 |