population from 28 in 1970 to 31.5 in 1985. A more than 3-year rise in the median age in 14 years is an historic demographic event.

(NOTE.-Unless otherwise noted, the statistics in this section on the size and growth of the population are estimates taken from: Spencer, Gregory; Projections of the Population of the United States, by Age, Sex and Race: 1983 to 2080; U.S. Bureau of the Census, Current Population Reports, Series P-25, No. 952: Middle Series Projections. Population estimates for the years prior to 1984 are from the Decennial Censuses of Population.)

THE GRAYING OF AMERICA WILL CONTINUE WELL INTO THE NEXT CENTURY WITH THE AGING OF THE BABY-BOOM

The projected growth in the older population will raise the median age of the U.S. population from 31.5 today to 36 by the year 2000 and to age 42 by the year 2050 (chart 1-2). Between 1985 and 2050 the total U.S. population is projected to increase by a third, while the 55-plus population is expected to more than double (table 1-2, chart 1-3). In fact, if current fertility and immigration levels remain stable, the only age groups to experience significant growth in the next century will be those past age 55.

SOURCE: U.S. Bureau of the Census, Current Population Reports, Series P-25, No. 952

The increase in the older population is expected to occur in two stages. Through the year 2000, the proportion of the population age 55 and over is expected to remain relatively stable, at just over one in five (22 percent). By 2010, because of the maturation of the baby boom, the proportion of older Americans is projected to rise dramatically; more than a quarter of the total U.S. population is expected to be at least 55 years old and one in seven Americans will be at least 65 years old. By 2050, one in three persons is expected to be 55 years or older and one in five will be 65-plus.

SOURCE: U.S. Bureau of the Census, Current Population Reports, Series P-25, No. 952
U.S. Census of the Population, 1890-1980

One of the most dramatic examples of the changing age distribution of the American population is the shift in the proportion of elderly in relation to the proportion of young persons (chart 1-4). In 1900, 4 percent of the population was age 65 and over while young persons, age 0 to 19 years, made up 44 percent of the population.

By 1980, the proportion of the 65-plus persons had increased to 11 percent and proportion of young persons had decreased to 32 percent. U.S. Census Bureau forecasts predict that, by the middle of the next century, the proportion of young persons and elderly will be almost equal, with persons 0 to 19 years equaling 23 percent and the elderly equaling 22 percent of the population.

SOURCE: U.S. Bureau of the Census, Current Population Reports, Series P-25, No. 952
Census of the Population, 1900

THE 85-PLUS POPULATION IS ONE OF THE FASTEST GROWING AGE GROUPS

The 85-plus population is one of the fastest growing age groups in the country. Chart 1-5 displays the growth of the 85-plus population in relation to three older age groups. This part of the population is also expected to triple in size between 1980 and 2020 and to be seven times as large in 2050 as in 1980 (table 1-2). While the increase in the "oldest-old" population is one of the major achievements of improved disease prevention and health care in this century, it has far-reaching implications for public policy because of the high probability of health problems and need for health and social services for this age group.

SOURCE: U.S. Bureau of the Census, Current Population Reports, Series P-25, No. 952

Life expectancy at age 85 has increased 24 percent since 1960 and is projected to increase another 44 percent by 2040.3

Between 1985 and 2050, the population aged 85 and over is expected to jump from about 1 percent to over 5 percent of the total population and from 9 percent to 24 percent of the 65-plus population.

More people are also surviving into their 10th and 11th decades. The 1980 census counted 163,000 persons 95-plus compared to 45,000 when the census was taken in 1960. And in the 1980's, 210 Americans are celebrating their 100th birthday every week. Because of the increase in the very old population, it is increasingly likely that older persons will themselves have a surviving parent. Four and five-generation families are becoming more common.

THE ELDERLY POPULATION IS GROWING OLDER

With increases in the number of people surviving into the upper age ranges, the elderly population is growing older. In 1980, the young-old (age 65 to 74) outnumbered the oldest-old (age 75 or older) by three to two.

In 1985, there were 9 percent more 65-to-74-year-olds than in 1980, 14 percent more 75-to-84-year-olds, and 21 percent more per

3 Soldo and Manton. The Graying of America: Demographic Challenges for Socioeconomic Planning.