EXISTING SYSTEM PROJECTED TO 1980

The existing system of postsecondary education was projected to 1980 to provide a basis for evaluating its adequacy relative to the future needs of Kansas. The procedure of analysis, which will be described in a subsequent report, assumed no changes in the number or type of institutions or in their governance or finance. Further, it was assumed that current trends and patterns would continue relative to post secondary participation rates, student aspirations, societal attitudes and values, program offerings, rate of inflation and student mix (e.g., ratio of adults to young people).

Under these assumed conditions, 92 percent of all postsecondary students would be enrolled in public education by 1980 — up seven percent from 1970. A number of private colleges would no longer be economically viable. By that time, the percent of entering students enrolled in four-year colleges and universities would have decreased to just under 50 percent - down 10 percent from 1970. An extension of the existing construction moratorium on community junior colleges and area vocational-technical schools would have prevented this trend from advancing any further. First-year enrollments and enrollment projections are shown in Figure 3 for the years 1965 through 1980 for each of the institutional types as percentages of total first-year enrollment.

Detailed enrollment and budgetary projections for 1980 are presented in Tables 3 and 4.

FIGURE 3

*Projections based on existing system of institutions and current legislative, social, economic, educational and cost escalation trends.