INTRODUCTION SCIENTIFIC DIRECTIONS The activities of the U.S. Global Change Research Program are aimed at well-focused scientific issues of global change. These issues reflect the continuing evolution of global change research toward increasing levels of intellectual and programmatic integration and represent the appropriate principal foci for the USGCRP. The questions identified within each of these four scientific areas are intended to illustrate the lines of scientific inquiry that characterize the program's efforts. In the areas of seasonal to interannual climate and atmospheric chemistry, these questions reflect a highly refined set of specific priorities characteristic of the level of scientific and programmatic maturity achieved by USGCRP programs in those areas. The more general questions associated with climate change on the time scale of decades and with large-scale ecosystem change are characteristic of the somewhat more exploratory nature of research in these fields. Seasonal to Interannual Climate Fluctuations How does the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle in the tropical Pacific contribute to climate anomalies and related extreme events such as droughts, floods, and severe storms, and what other processes are involved? What are the controlling processes relevant to climate on seasonal to interannual time scales and regional to global spatial scales? Can we develop predictive models that include these processes? How can we predict seasonal to interannual climate fluctuations and associated extreme events, and how do we simulate the potential economic impacts on agricultural, water resource, and other socioeconomic systems? Changes in the Chemistry of the Atmosphere What are the trends and patterns of change in ozone concentrations in the stratosphere and upper troposphere, and the related trends and patterns of ultraviolet radiation at the Earth's surface and climate perturbations? What are the trends of tropospheric ozone, aerosols, and pollutants in the lower atmosphere? Can we model the physical and chemical processes in the atmosphere to permit prediction of changes in ozone, aerosols, pollutants, and related climate effects? Can we assess the implications of changing concentrations of ozone and other chemical species on human health and natural ecosystems? 10 A Review of the USGCRP and NASA's MTPE/EOS Changes in Terrestrial and Marine Ecosystems What are the trends and the geographic and temporal patterns of change in global land cover? What are the processes, both natural and human induced, that lead to changes in land cover, land use, and marine productivity, including such processes as deforestation, desertification, and loss of global resources, including biological diversity and productivity? How do managed and natural ecosystems interact with the atmosphere in the exchange of energy, water, carbon dioxide (CO2) and trace gases, and how do those exchanges affect global and regional climates and water resources? What are the processes that control the exchange of biogenic trace gases between terrestrial ecosystems and the atmosphere? What is the distribution of sources and sinks for CO2 and how is it changing? What processes govern the ocean's uptake of atmospheric carbon dioxide? What governs the variability of phytoplankton communities that form the base of the oceanic food chain? What are the links with higher species--fish, invertebrates, and mammals? Changes in Climate over the Next Few Decades What are the trends and patterns of change in the Earth's climate system, including the atmosphere, oceans, glaciers, sea ice, and the biosphere? How have these patterns varied in the past? What is the nature of the processes relevant to the dynamics of climate, including both internal factors such as water vapor, clouds, and heat transfer by the atmosphere and oceans, and external factors such as solar variability and volcanic activity? Can we develop predictive models of regional to global climate change over time scales from a decade to a century? What is the vulnerability of Earth systems, including economies, human health, and ecological systems, to climate fluctuations and changes on these time scales? PROGRAM MANAGEMENT The experience of the past decade or so has provided valuable insights into the management of large-scale Earth science projects. Those elements of the USGCRP that have worked well (e.g., the WCRP Tropical Ocean-Global Atmosphere (TOGA) Program and research on stratospheric ozone) have been focused on clearly defined Earth system problems and have been characterized by close collaboration within and among the national and international scientific communities and federal funding agencies on both development and the implementation. When this collaborative approach works well, the scientific community and the responsible parties in the federal government (both executive and legislative branches) share a scientific vision and a commitment to the programmatic discipline necessary to implement that vision: Federal funding agencies commit to a resource allocation strategy that adheres to those plans. Individual agency capabilities and assets are brought to bear on the problem, and program implementation decisions are made on the basis of scientific merit and relevance and are independent of agency boundaries. • Responsibility for program direction and balance is shared among leaders in both government and the scientific community. National programs reflect clear ties to the related activities of our international partners and constitute formal U.S. contributions to established international global change research programs such as the WCRP, IGBP, and the HDP. Clear procedures for scientific review and guidance are established. Program participants in and out of government share responsibility for ensuring that research results are made available both to their scientific colleagues and to potential users. The specific findings and recommendations that follow provide guidance toward taking the next steps in the evolution of the USGCRP and NASA's MTPE/EOS program. Findings and Recommendations PROGRAM-WIDE FINDINGS AND RECOMMENDATIONS The past decade of research within the U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP) has produced remarkable improvements in our understanding of Earth system behavior and its interaction with human activities. We have gained valuable insights into the characteristics of a successful global change research program. These insights lead the Committee on Global Change Research to the following programmatic recommendations for the USGCRP. Recommendations The USGCRP must maintain a balanced program of space- and ground-based observations, laboratoryand field-based process research, information management, modeling, prediction, and assessment activities in which the interaction among these program elements is as important as the success of each; • identify clearly the essential elements of the program, while recognizing the contributions of related programs and activities; ensure the development and successful implementation of integrated scientific plans across agency boundaries; maintain strong and effective linkages with international global change research and observation programs; and obtain timely guidance from the scientific community on priorities, program balance, and direction. 14 A Review of the USGCRP and NASA's MTPE/EOS The USGCRP is making an effort in each of these dimensions; however, the committee is concerned that the current efforts and their effectiveness may not be adequate to the task. The USGCRP must encompass numerous scientific disciplines and areas of activity. Critical aspects of the program cross both discipline and agency boundaries. Thus, interdisciplinary and interagency linkages are central to successful implementation of the program. The needed programmatic integration is not currently being achieved adequately. Specifically, important elements of the USGCRP may be lost due to agency boundaries and individual agency funding difficulties. • The USGCRP should be implemented as an integrated program of observations, process research, modeling, prediction, information management, and assessment that incorporates the unique assets and capabilities of the participating agencies and their extramural research programs. The necessary program integration and coordination must be achieved through enhanced collaboration and cooperation among the scientific community, the Congress, federal agencies, and the Executive Office of the President in the program's planning, implementation, and funding. To that end, The scientific community, through its established advisory mechanisms, should provide more timely scientific guidance on program priorities, balance and direction; ensure broader and more balanced expert representation in advisory processes; promote more effectively U.S. contributions to international global change research programs; and conduct periodic external reviews to assess scientific progress and evaluate programmatic integration and performance. • The Congress should ensure that program authorizations and resource allocations to individual agencies are consistent with the implementation of an integrated program. (This is not currently being done); and - provide a mechanism for bipartisan, bicameral oversight of the effectiveness of the program in meeting the information needs of the nation. |