Y 4. Ec 7: Em 712/pt. 9 95-1 HEARINGS BEFORE THE JOINT ECONOMIC COMMITTEE NINETY-FIFTH CONGRESS FIRST SESSION PART 9 JANUARY 12, FEBRUARY 4, MARCH 4, AND APRIL 1, 1977 91-491 O U.S. GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE WASHINGTON: 1977 For sale by the Superintendent of Documents, U.S. Government Printing Office JOINT ECONOMIC COMMITTEE (Created pursuant to sec. 5 (a) of Public Law 304, 79th Cong.) RICHARD BOLLING, Missouri, Chairman HUBERT H. HUMPHREY, Minnesota, Vice Chairman HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES HENRY S. REUSS, Wisconsin WILLIAM S. MOORHEAD, Pennsylvania MARGARET M. HECKLER, Massachusetts JOHN H. ROUSSELOT, California WILLIAM R. BUECHNER G. THOMAS CATOR WILLIAM A. Cox ROBERT D. HAMRIN SENATE JOHN SPARKMAN, Alabama EDWARD M. KENNEDY, Massachusetts WILLIAM V. ROTH, JR., Delaware JAMES A. MCCLURE, Idaho JOHN R. STARK, Executive Director CONTENTS Shiskin, Hon. Julius, Commissioner, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Depart- ment of Labor, accompanied by W. John Layng, Assistant Commissioner, Office of Prices and Living Conditions; and Robert L. Stein, Assistant Bolling, Hon. Richard, chairman of the Joint Economic Committee: Open- Shiskin, Hon. Julius, Commissioner, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Depart- ment of Labor, accompanied by W. John Layng, Assistant Commissioner, Office of Prices and Living Conditions; and Robert L. Stein, Assistant Humphrey, Hon. Hubert H., vice chairman of the Joint Economic Com- Shiskin, Hon. Julius, Commissioner, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Depart- ment of Labor, accompanied by W. John Layng, Assistant Commissioner, Office of Prices and Living Conditions; and Robert L. Stein, Assistant Bolling, Hon. Richard, chairman of the Joint Economic Committee: Open- Shiskin, Hon. Julius, Commissioner, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Depart- ment of Labor, accompanied by W. John Layng, Assistant Commissioner, Office of Prices and Living Conditions; and Robert L. Stein, Assistant Press release No. 77-31 entitled "The Employment Situation: Decem- ber 1976," Bureau of Labor Statistics, Department of Labor, Janu- Tabular response to Representative Bolling's five-point query regard- FRIDAY, FEBRUARY 4, 1977 Shiskin, Hon. Julius, et al.: Table reflecting unemployment rate by alternate seasonal adjustment methods_____ Page 1607 Press release No. 77-100 entitled "The Unemployment Situation: January 1977," Bureau of Labor Statistics, Department of Labor, February 4, 1977___ 1609 Tabular response to Representative Bolling's request to supply for the record a comparison of U.S. unemploment rates and other labor statistics with other major countries___. 1651 Shiskin, Hon. Julius, et al.: FRIDAY, MARCH 4, 1977 1. Unemployment rate by alternate seasonal adjustment methods_ 1658 2. Changes in major labor force indicators, three 4-month periods Press Release No. 77-195 entitled "The Employment Situation: Febru- Study entitled "Federal Supplemental Benefits Post-Exhaustion Shiskin, Hon. Julius, et al.: FRIDAY, APRIL 1, 1977 1660 1661 1687 Chart reflecting consumer price index and selected components, seasonally adjusted 1-month span, 1967-77 1710 Table reflecting unemployment rate by alternate seasonal adjustment methods 1711 Press release No. 77-273 entitled "The Employment Situation: March 1977," Bureau of Labor Statistics, Department of Labor, April 1, 1977 1713 Response to Representative Bolling's request to supply an estimate on the effect of shoe exports and imports on jobs__ 1735 EMPLOYMENT-UNEMPLOYMENT WEDNESDAY, JANUARY 12, 1977 CONGRESS OF THE UNITED STATES, JOINT ECONOMIC COMMITTEE, The committee met, pursuant to notice, at 11 a.m., in room 5302, Dirksen Senate Office Building, Hon. Richard Bolling (chairman of the committee) presiding. Present: Representatives Bolling, Long, Brown of Michigan, and Rousselot; and Senator Proxmire. Also present: John R. Stark, executive director; Louis C. Krauthoff II and Courtenay M. Slater, assistant directors; William R. Buechner, G. Thomas Cator, and Katie MacArthur, professional staff members; Michael J. Runde, administrative assistant; and Charles H. Bradford and M. Catherine Miller, minority professional staff members. OPENING STATEMENT OF REPRESENTATIVE BOLLING, CHAIRMAN Representative BOLLING. The committee will be in order. We are pleased to welcome Commissioner Shiskin here today to give us some ideas about the significance of the unemployment and wholesale price figures released this morning by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The news is mixed. Unemployment is down, but wholesale prices rose significantly. The unemployment rate for December was 7.9 percent, which certainly represents an improvement over the 8.1 percent unemployment rate for November. I know that a 1-month reduction in the unemployment rate doesn't portend a long-term trend, but I do hope that the news you brought us today represents just the beginning of a sustained downward movement that will bring unemployment well below 7 percent by the end of this year. I note from your release of this morning that all of the December improvement took place among adult men, and that the jobless rate for adult women, teenagers, and blacks failed to improve. This is not good news, and I think we may want to explore it after your testimony. The wholesale price index in December rose by 0.9 percent, the fourth large monthly increase in a row. Since September, the wholesale price index has been rising at an annual rate of almost 10 percent, which is not good news. The only silver lining I see in the figures you gave us this morning is in the Industrial Commodities index, which rose only 0.3 percentage points. We suffered a very large bulge in industrial prices during the last half of 1976, and I hope this small |