By the end of this century, however, TBMS with a greater range and accuracy are likely to be deployed, and the number of countries with a nuclear capability could grow. The risk of a third world country using TBMs against US forces could be significant.

Regional Requirements and Capabilities

Europe. In Europe, the role of a unified Germany, the Soviet troop drawdown, -stability in Eastern Europe, and NATO's future are current issues. NATO's role is changing and the European community is extending its economic influence into both Eastern Europe and the Soviet Union.

Acknowledging the dramatic changes sweeping Europe, the Defense Program significantly reduces US forward presence in the region. While land-based forces are being reduced, the remaining force is still significant. This continuing presence provides an explicit commitment to the security and stability of Europe. We also plan to continue a maritime presence in the region. Southwest Asia (SWA). The primary US strategic interest in Southwest Asia is the security of key friendly nations and access to Persian Gulf oil. The US response to the Iraqi invasion of Kuwait was facilitated by our existing presence in the region. Air, ground, and maritime deployments and prepositioning, combined exercises, security assistance, and infrastructure as well as access to European and other enhanced our crisis response force buildup. The Joint Chiefs of Staff and the Commander in Chief of US Central Command are currently reviewing requirements for US forward presence in SWA after Operation DESERT STORM.

regional bases

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Pacific. As Asia moves toward increased political selfconfidence and economic prosperity, US forward presence will continue to serve as a strong stabilizing counterweight to undue expansion of any regional nation's power or political assertiveness. The Defense Program provides sustained presence, represented by maritime forces throughout the region and land-based forces in Korea, Japan, the Philippines, Guam and Hawaii. As Japan and Korea move toward a leading role in their own defenses, carefully managed reductions of US personnel will be implemented. However, these forces will continue to support deterrence on the Korean peninsula while balancing Soviet and Chinese influence in the area.

Latin America. Poor economies, debt, drugs, and social inequities and dislocation will continue to plague Latin America with potential adverse impact on US long-term security interests. US land-based presence in Panama will affirm US commitment to regional stability until forces depart at the end of the decade. As long as domestic illegal drug demand continues, the interdiction of drug trafficking will remain a US focus in Latin America. Forces assigned to counter-narcotics operations may enhance US forward presence and influence.

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Other Regions. Debt, poverty, fragile democracies, proliferation, and internecine struggles will have an increasing influence on US interests around the world. As the Third World ceases to be an East-West ideological battleground, US political interests will be focused on regional instability and conflict that might have an effect on our security and the free flow of commerce. The sudden, explosive nature of frustrated ethnic, religious, political, and social forces will continue to have an increasing impact on regional and international affairs.

Now I will turn to a discussion of US strategy and force structure.

Central Military Strategic Concepts

Our national strategy is founded on the premise that America will continue to provide the leadership needed to preserve global peace and security. Consequently, our military strategy continues to rely on the basic elements that made possible the historic success of containment and assured the favorable outcome of dozens of lesser military conflicts and missions over the past 45 years.

Deterrence. Deterrence must continue to be the motivating and organizing concept for America's armed forces. We are not an aggressor nation. We can have no other policy without destroying our values and, thus, our true strength. Deterrence demands a military establishment of global scope and great competence. То deter successfully nuclear and conventional aggression poses military challenges beyond the reach of any other nation on earth.

Power Projection. Whenever US interests are threatened, this country must have the capability to project its military power if it is needed. We must move personnel and equipment from US bases and forward deployments to the scene of the crisis quickly and in enough numbers to determine the outcome. Projecting power quickly is a demanding, complex operation. Assembling a fighting force at distant locations requires ready, mobile forces and an appropriate mix of airlift, sealift, and forward-positioned equipment stocks, as well as the capability conduct forcible entry as required. Our capability to project power contributes greatly to deterrence, regional stability, and collective security.

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Forward Presence. Over the past 40 years, the day-to-day presence of US troops has been key to averting crisis and preventing war. Forward presence provides visible deterrence, preserves regional stability, and promotes US influence and access. Forward presence can include, but is not limited to, stationed forces, rotational deployments, access and storage agreements, combined exercises, security and humanitarian assistance, port visits and military-to-military relations. We know that military forward presence will be reduced in the future. But prudent forward-basing and deployment of forces and the pre-positioning of combat and support materiel must be done to reduce the burdens of power projection.

Reconstitution. With the reduction in the Soviet threat that drove US peacetime military strength since World War II, we now confront a familiar but no less demanding challenge: the strategic concept of reconstitution. This requires us to maintain the capacity to reconstitute a large, effective defense capability, if the need should arise. Preserving this potential will require foresight in protecting the infrastructure, stockpiling critical materials, protecting the defense industrial base, investing in basic science and high-payoff technologies, and constituting Reserve units adaptable to activation as the mission dictates.

Collective Security. Forward presence is most effective when embodied in collective security arrangements. These arrangements coordinate common security interests, codify commitments, enhance combined doctrine and interoperability, and provide integrated command structures. In a future of declining

defense budgets and less forward presence, we increasingly will rely on collective security arrangements to protect and further our and our allies' global interests.

Maritime and Aerospace Superiority. Control of critical sea, air and space lines of communication underwrites our other strategic concepts. Control of these lines is essential to our ability to protect global US interests and to project power, reinforce, resupply, and gain access. Maritime and aerospace superiority gives us the capability to achieve this control and provides our National Command Authorities with a wide range of options during peace, crisis, or war.

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Security Assistance. strengthened greatly, particularly nations, through security assistance. friends and allies build indigenous military capabilities and to gain their confidence bring tremendous returns in helping the US to meet its regional objectives.

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Arms Control. With the improvement in US-Soviet relations, arms control has become an important means of reducing the levels of nuclear and conventional arsenals. Arms control is not, however, an end in itself but rather a means to an end that end being providing for our national security. Through arms control agreements we seek to reduce military threats to our interests, inject greater predictability into military relationships, and channel force modernization in more stabilizing directions.

Technological Superiority. We give our military men and women the most technologically advanced weapons in the world. We rely on our qualitative superiority to counterbalance the quantitative superiority of our potential adversaries. Operation DESERT STORM demonstrated the advantages of this level of technical achievement. To maintain this level of technology, a continued, robust research and development program is

essential.

Other Military Tasks

Accompanying these central strategic concepts are several related tasks:

Combating Drugs. The detection and countering of the production and trafficking of illegal drugs is a high-priority national security mission for our armed forces. The President and the Secretary of Defense have directed that we deal with this threat as a clear and present danger. We have accepted that mission and remain fully committed to achieving success. We have already come a long distance. We have established an effective communications network for Federal, state and local law enforcement agencies. We have dramatically enhanced our operational detection and monitoring capabilities. We have encouraged and supported nations that host or provide transit to drug traffickers. We have helped them develop the kind of aggressive and capable efforts we have seen demonstrated by our own agencies. That said, however, this mission will continue to require deployed, properly trained, and well- equipped forces for the foreseeable future.

Combating Terrorism. The spread of international terrorism poses a pervasive threat to the United States and to the rest of the civilized world. Deterring terrorist attacks on US and allied citizens and property and responding effectively to terrorist attacks remains a continuing mission of US armed

forces. This mission calls for a military force manned, equipped and trained to respond effectively to neutralize the threat such attacks pose.

Military Force Packages

To implement our strategic concepts and to accomplish all of the missions we require of our forces, I see the continuing need for four basic military force packages, backed by four supporting capabilities. The four basic packages are Strategic forces, Atlantic forces, Pacific forces, and Contingency forces. The four basic supporting capabilities are Transportation capability, a Space capability, a Reconstitution capability, and a Research and Development capability. If we have these forces and capabilities, balanced and matched to the available resources, I feel confident that we can meet the challenges of the world's emerging and enduring realities. Strategic Forces

First, while the pending START Treaty is a major step toward reducing nuclear arsenals, it will not eliminate the Soviet nuclear threat. The United States will continue to need modern strategic nuclear forces to deter Soviet nuclear attack. We will remain committed to a triad of nuclear forces: land-based missiles, missile-firing submarines, and manned bomber aircraft. The makeup of that triad may shift; our reliance on sea-based systems will probably grow. We will continue to pursue the promise of anti-missile defenses through the Strategic Defense Initiative. A robust, survivable, reliable command, control, communications and intelligence system must be fielded.

The President's Budget reflects these priorities. We will scale back our strategic forces in accordance with expectations regarding completion of the START Treaty. Termination of the Trident submarine program, retirement of Minuteman II missiles and accelerated retirement of Poseidon submarines, and continued reduction of the bomber force as B-52s are retired and FB-111s are transferred to a tactical role will all take place. However, we will proceed with needed strategic modernization programs such as the Trident II missile, the B2 bomber, and the advanced cruise missile. The MX rail garrison program will be scaled back, although we will proceed through the first developmental test. Development of the small ICBM will also continue, although we have no plans for deployment at this point. We feel that these modernization efforts provide the minimum investment to maintain an adequate strategic nuclear deterrent against any potential adversary.

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I remain fully committed to the emphasis on strategic defensive forces. ability to deter an attack on the United against an attack if deterrence fails. program remains consistent with the objectives previously established by the Joint Chiefs of Staff for a Phase I system. The increased investment in protection against limited strikes and in theater defenses is also appropriate and prudent. Atlantic Forces

Second, we need Atlantic forces to help achieve stability and protect US interests in the Atlantic region, including Europe, the Mediterranean Sea, the Middle East, and Southwest Asia. US air, land, and maritime forces must still be postured to sustain collective European security, ensure access to oil in the Persian Gulf, and to meet American commitments to the security of friends and allies in the Middle East and Southwest

Asia. NATO and our numerous bilateral relationships will continue to provide the framework within which we operate these forces. Forward presence and the ability to project power quickly will be their basic operational concepts.

In Europe itself, we will continue to rely on a forward presence consisting of mechanized and armored ground forces capable of prevailing against a similarly armed opponent; naval forces capable of establishing and maintaining sea control, while projecting power ashore; amphibious forces capable of conducting forced entry operations; and air forces that can achieve air superiority while conducting other support missions. We will also need to maintain a presence in the Mediterranean and in the post-war Persian Gulf. While remaining available to other theaters, the bulk of the nation's Reserve forces would augment and support our Atlantic forces.

The President's Budget provides for a continued forward presence across the Atlantic and for sufficient modernization to support the forces necessary to sustain that presence. Despite our expectation of a reduced Soviet threat to Europe, our modernization efforts must continue to emphasize the level of technology and the type of force structure needed to operate in a high intensity environment -- the kind of environment in which our Armed Forces fought in the Gulf War.

Pacific Forces

We will continue to need Pacific forces similar to those we have in place today across that vast region, though with smaller components, especially among our ground forces. Forward presence in the region will be primarily maritime, with a smaller number of forward-deployed air and light and heavy ground forces deployed in South Korea to deter the continued threat from North Korea, and a smaller number of Air Force and Army forces in Japan. The remaining Army and Air Force power in the Pacific would consist of reinforcements from Hawaii, Alaska, and CONUS.

The President's Budget allocates funds for procurement, military construction, and power projection that will help to equip and sustain our forces in the Pacific. Contingency Forces

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Operation JUST CAUSE, our non-combatant evacuation operations in Liberia and Somalia, and Operations DESERT SHIELD/STORM have proven the enduring requirement for Contingency forces capable of responding to unexpected and unpredictable future crises. These forces must be mobile, flexible, fast and lethal. They will be composed of rapidly deployable light, airborne, and mobile heavy Army forces, tailored mix of Air Force, Navy, and Marine Corps units, and Special Operations Forces. They would have a small Reserve component and would draw, as necessary, from the other Forces for additional resources. Also, where appropriate, they would operate in conjunction with the forces of our friends and allies, and would have an important military assistance role. We will need light and mobile C3 systems to complement the weapons systems and platforms of these Contingency forces.

Funds allocated in the President's Budget for Special Operations Forces, on-shore and off-shore pre-positioning of equipment, rapidly deployable command and control systems, and substantial and highly effective maritime and amphibious forces, contribute to enhancing the capabilities of our Contingency forces.