Polish officials would like to have five year CCC credits. On a direct question by the Delegation to Premier Piotr Jaroszewicz we learned that Poland would provide firm commitments for agricultural imports up to 10-14 years. Presumably feed grains and soybeans were the imports implied as the Poles appear to plan continued reliance on the Soviet Union for cereal grains, provided the Soviet Union can and will supply the demand. Delegation findings Polish agriculture has received even more priority than Soviet agriculture, especially in animal husbandry, meat production and processing. United States sales of feed grains, soybeans and agricultural equipment related to animal husbandry and likely to increase in future years. Delegation recommendations If firm long term agricultural commitments are forthcoming for U.S. agricultural sales to Poland, serious consideration should be given to extending the term of CCC credits from three to five years as well as providing other stimulants to an assured and expanding market. Serious consideration should be given to assignment of U.S. agricultural attaches to Romania, Czechoslovakia, and Hungary depending on estimates of prospective agricultural sales to each of these East European nations. GENERAL FINDINGS The meetings with Soviet leaders were cordial and businesslike. The meetings were the most promising of constructive progress of any experienced by members of the Delegation over the last fifteen years. The new political climate and perceived Soviet need for agricultural products and credits provide a basis for expecting significant new markets in the Soviet Union and Eastern Europe for United States. agriculture. Cereal grain sales to the Soviet Union and Eastern Europe are likely to continue to reflect the weather and crop cycle. However the United States may be treated on equal footing with the other Western grain exporting nations in the future. The large cereal grain sales by the United States to the Soviet Union. are not likely to recur soon, unless the adverse signs for the 1973 Soviet crop continue and result in another disastrous harvest. The winter wheat plantings were low, the snow cover to date has been inadequate and rather warm fall was not a favorable sign. Therefore, at current reading, it is possible that the Soviet Union will be in the foreign markets for cereal grain again this year. But it is too early to make a judgment at this point. If Soviet cereal grain purchasers do come again some lessons should be drawn from last year. First, we should expect the Soviet purchasing agents to be effective, and to take whatever short-term gains our market permits Feed, grain, soybean, agricultural equipment sales are likely to increase on a stable basis unless priorities are changed by the Communist governments from their current emphasis on meat output and efficiency in animal husbandry. The new requirements in Soviet agriculture for improved animal husbandry hold out the promise, not only for a continuing market. for feed grain and soybeans, but a transfer of the whole range of agribusiness technology so well developed in the United States. Agricultural exports provide a unique and distinct opportunity for the United States in expanding commercial relations not only in Eastern Europe but elsewhere. The discussions in GATT involving not only Western Europe but Japan will be of particular importance. Significant as the economic gains from the expansion of markets in the Communist countries for United States goods, the volume and potential in Western Europe and Japan will still be far more economically significant to United States producers. The political possibilities related to our Eastern European trade add the additional element of potential gain and risk which raise the promise of the Eastern market to its rightful position of prominence in our policy deliberations. APPENDIX TABLE 1.-CONSUMPTION OF CRITICAL PRODUCTS BY POPULATIONS IN U.S.S.R. AND UNITED STATES IN 1970 Note: In caloric value of nutrition U.S.S.R. has achieved the level of United States. In the structure of food consumption in U.S.S.R., potatoes and flour products play a significant part. The consumption of meat, eggs, vegetables, and fruit (in U.S.S.R.), however, is below the level of scientifically established norms of nutrition. (Supplied to the Delegation by Minister of Agriculture Matskevitch.) Fields located in regions with yearly precipitation of 700 millimeters and over (in percent).. Note: The territory of United States has more favorable natural conditions for development of agriculture than has the TABLE 3.-U.S.S.R.: PRODUCTION OF MAJOR CROPS AND ANIMAL PRODUCTS 1 Agricultural output for sale and home consumption net of uses of farm products as seed and livestock feed. Price weights for 1968 have been used in aggregating the physical output of crops and animal products (including changes in Inventories of livestock). * Value of food and technical crops less seed but including the portion fed to livestock. * Value of output of meat, milk, eggs, and wool. * Estimated. 1 Concentrated feeds are low in fiber and high in total digestible nutrients. They include the various grains and high-grade by-products: wheat bran, soybean meal, cottonseed meal, fishmeal, and the like. APPENDIX A LIST OF OFFICIALS WITH WHOM THE DELEGATION MET SOVIET UNION.-November 27 to December 1, 1972. His Excellency A. N. Kosygin, Chairman of the Council of Ministers of the U.S.S.R. Minister of Foreign Trade N. S. Patolichev. Minister of Agriculture V. V. Matskevich. Minister of Merchant Marine T. B. Guzhenko. Chairman of the House of the Union of the Supreme Soviet of the U.S.S.R. A. P. Shitikov. Mr. G. L. Trusevich, Deputy Chairman, Bank for Foreign Trade. Mr. G. A. Arbatov, Director, U.S.A. Institute (Senator Humphrey only). Academician N. N. Inozemtsev, Director, Institute of World Economics and International Relations. Mr. V. I. Ushakov, Deputy Chairman, Government Bank (Congressman Reuss only). Mr. B. D. Zavil'gel'skiy, Director, Moscow Stud Farm (Senator Bellmon only). POLAND. December 1 to December 5, 1972 (Senator Humphrey and Congressman Reuss composed delegation). Prime Minister Piotr Jaroszevicz. Foreign Minister Stefan Olszowski. Vice Minister of Foreign Affairs Spasowski. Mr. Ryszard Frelek, Member of the Sejm and Secretary of the Central Committee of the Polish United Workers Party. A delegation of the Sejm (Polish Parliament) led by Mr. Eugeniusz Mazurkiewicz, Member Sejm Agricultural Commission and Director of the Agricultural Department of the Central Committee of the Polish United Workers Party. Minister of Health and Social Welfare H. E. Marian Sliwinski. FEDERAL REPUBLIC OF GERMANY.-December 5 to December 6, 1972 (Senator Humphrey only). Chancellor Willy Brandt. Mr. Ranier Barzel, Member of the Bundestag and Chairman of the Christian Democratic Union. Foreign Minister Walter Scheel. GREAT BRITAIN.-December 6 to December 8, 1972 (Senator Humphrey only). Prime Minister Edward Heath. Right Honorable Harold Wilson, MP. Sir Basil Engholm, KCB, Permanent Secretary Ministry of Agriculture, Fisheries and Food. Mr. F. M. Kerans, Deputy Secretary Ministry of Agriculture, Fisheries and Food. Mr. John H. Parotte, Executive Secretary, International Wheat Council. |