6

We have assumed that this cost represents a cost for all these
kinds of biomass (which mainly consists of residuals from other
activities). This gives (if the figure for labour per monetary
unit from forestry is used) 26.8 million work hours directly and
a total of 41 million work hours at 55 TWh. No cost has been
included for bark and lye.

All the straw, reeds, logging waste and domestic solid waste (a
total of 35 TWh) is assumed to be available by 1990. Aquatic biomass
is started in 2006 with an annual increase of 10,000 ha/year.

4.

Other electricity production

4.1

Combined generation and district heating systems

Combined generation and district heating systems are assumed to
be built during the period 1980 - 1990. Towards the end of the
century the substitution of the combined generation plants becomes
necessary. This is approximately 3 GW, which cost approximately
3,450 Crs/kW of electricity. The cost refers to a plant fired with
coal (or biomass) of 50 MW electricity and 100 MW heat (109). The
total investment becomes 10,400 million Sw. Crs. Assume that half
of this is in engineering industry and half in construction industry.
The total investment is equivalent to 81 million work hours directly
and a total of 160.4 million hours. The replacement is assumed to
occur at a constant rate during the years 2006 - 2015, i.e. during
10 years.

Approximately 8 GW are assumed to be needed at a cost of around 2,000 Sw. Crs/kW (110). This gives a total of 16 billion Sw. Crs.

7

Assume that in this case also half is in engineering and half in construction industry. This means a total of 248 million work hours (of which 125 million is direct labour). Assume a build-up of 500 MW per year during 2000 - 2015. This gives 15.5 million work hours per year.

4.3

Pump storage (or other technology for storing electricity)

Assume that 15 GW are needed costing 800 Sw. Crs/kW (111). This gives a total of 12,000 million Sw. Crs. If work/Sw. Cr as above, we get a total of 186 million work hours (of which 93.6 million directly). Build-up of 500 MW/year during 1985 - 2015, i.e. 6.2 million work hours/year.

77 TWn of methanol are produced annually, which is equivalent to approximately 16 Mtons. A plant which produces 750,000 tons per year of methanol is equivalent to about 3.5 TWh, and is assumed to cost 1,100 million Sw. Crs in investment (112). This is true for production based on coal and is assumed to be the same with biomass. Construction of one plant per year for 22 years meets the need. The first plant is assumed to be constructed in 1990. Half of the investment is assumed to be in production industries and half in construction. This entails an annual labour need of 8.6 million work hours directly and a total of 17 million hours per year for 22 years.

1986-1990 the equivalent of 0.1 TWh/year is built

8

The total capacity installed in the year 2015 is equivalent to a contribution from solar heating of 71.5 TWh per year.

The figure used for investment cost is 2 Sw. Crs per annual kWh (cf section 2.5).

Assume that production and installation of solar heating systems consists of 50% engineering industry and 50 % building industry.

Cf an American study, where the labour need for solar heating is given as 4,100 - 5,700 work hours/MW year = 0.47 - 0.65 work hours/MW hour (113). At a mean life of 20 years, the investment is equivalent to 0.009 work hours per kWh and year direct work, which is approximately 40% under the value we have used.

Installation of 1 TWh per year costs 2,000 million Sw. Crs, and 15.5 million work hours directly and a total of 31 million work

hours.

Running and maintenance

For windpower, solar cells and solar heating we have used an
annual maintenance cost of 2% of the total investment (cf
sections 2.3 and 2.5). For methanol production, combined generation
and fuel cells, we have used 4% of the investment for running and
maintenance costs (excl. of fuel.)

REFERENCES AND NOTES

A large proportion of the references used for this study is in
Swedish. In order to indicate the nature of the references, the
titles etc have been translated. When the original reference is
in Swedish and not available in English, this is indicated by the
word "Swedish" in brackets at the end of the reference.

1. Måns Lönnroth, Thomas B. Johansson, Peter Steen:
"Energy in transition" a report on energy policy and future
options. Secretariat for Future Studies, Stockholm, 1977

2.

3.

4.

5.

Peter Steen: "On the Oil Supply." Secretariat for Future
Studies, Stockholm, 1977 (Swedish).

Bert Bolin: "Energy and Climate". Secretariat for Future
Studies, Stockholm, 1975.

A. Björkström, B. Bolin, H. Rodhe: "Report to the Energy Commission Group A, Safety and Environment", Stockholm 1977 (Swedish)

Thomas B. Johansson: "On the Nuclear Fuel Cycle". Secretariat for Future Studies, Stockholm, 1976 (Swedish).

See e.g.:

"Report to the Energy Commission, Group A" by Jon Elster:
"Nuclear Power? Some political and decision-making
problems". (Norwegian)

Paul Hofseth: "Energy Policy Decisions - Some elementary
reflections based on philosophical tradition". (Norwegian)
Dag Prawitz: "Some comments concerning decision-making under
uncertainty". (Swedish)

Torbjörn Thedéen et al.: (Working group for risk assessment and
risk psychology): "Safety assessment and risk psychology". (Swedish)

6. M. King Hubbert: "The energy resources of the Earth", Scientific American 224 (1971), p. 60 -87.

F.J. Dyson: "Energy in the Universe". Scientific American 224,
(1971), p. 50 - 59.

G. Gustafson, S. Lyttkens, S.G. Nilsson: "The energy forms in
the Universe. Energy flows to Earth, in Energy not only a
question of technology". Centre for the interdiciplinary
study of the human condition, Gothenburg 1974. (Swedish)

2

7.

8.

9.

10.

11.

12.

13.

14.

15.

16.

17.

18.

19.

"Solar Energy, a UK Assessment". Prepared by UK section of the
International Solar Energy Society, The Royal Institution,
21 Albemarle Street, London W1X 4 BS, May 1976.

Folke Peterson & Gunnar Wettermark: "The Solar Energy Book".
Ingenjörs förlaget, 1977. (Swedish).

"Planning Report - Solar Energy in Sweden". Council for Energy Production Research. NE 1977:21. Stockholm 1977. (Swedish).

Lars Emmelin, Bo Wiman: "On Energy and Ecology". Secretariat for
Future Studies. Stockholm 1977. (Swedish).

EFA 2000: "Energy Supply Alternatives for Sweden in the year 2000".
Main report and appendixes. DFE report no. 5 and 6. Delegation
for Energy Research. Stockholm 1977. (Swedish).

G. Sirén, E. Sivertson: "Mini-rotation forestry for Energy
Production". (current report). Royal College of Forestry,
Stockholm 1976. (Swedish).

G. Sirén: "Annual Report". Department of Reafforestation, Royal
College of Forestry, Stockholm, January 1977. (Swedish).
Proceedings of the working-meeting: Premises and Potential of
Short Rotation Forestry in Sweden, Royal College of Forestry,
Stockholm 11-12 October, 1976.

Memo by P.0. Nilsson et al.: "Preliminary Assessment of Forests and Energy Resources". Royal College of Forestry, Stockholm 1976-12-09 (Swedish).

EFA 2000 (reference 11) appendix PROD, p. 9:2. (Swedish).

Energy Commission, Group B: The Preliminary Assessment made by this group varies between 50 and 250 Sw. Crs. per ton of dry matter. Report summer 1977, p. 4.8:9. (Report in Swedish).

Silvicultural Biomass Farms, Vol. IV, p 5
Report No. 7347, Mitre Corp., USA, May 1977.

10 Mitre Technical

M.D. Fraser, I-F Henry and C.W. Vail: "Design, Operation and
Economics of the Energy Plantation". Intertechnology Corporation,
January 1977, USA

N.K. Boardman: "Energy Budget in Solar Energy Conversion in
ecological and agricultural Systems", in R. Buret, M.J. Allen and
J-P Massuré, Eds.: "Living Systems as Energy Converters".
North-Holland Publishing Co., Amsterdam 1977.

A.D. Poole, R.H. Williams: "Flower Power". Bulletin of the Atomic
Scientists, May 1976, p. 49-58.