APPENDIX

Calculation of the resource need for a renewable energy system up until the year 2015.

Introduction

We will here discuss feasible rates of introduction and the resource needed to build up the new energy system. The resource need will be expressed in the form of need for labour rather than in monetary units. This need for labour will compete with other production. Thus we have a basis on which to discuss the effects on our standard of living. To calculate the labour need for investments in new energy technology, we here use a conversion from monetary units to labour need (work hours). These figures for labour per Sw. Cr. end use of goods come from calculations with the Energy Prognosis Model of SIND (107). The original data is from 1975 and are expressed in 1968 prices. Conversion to the price level of 1976-1977 has been made by using the production price - index for industry (1968 = 100, January 1977 = 202).

The cost for labour is approximately 70 Sw. Crs per hour. For a commodity that costs approximately 70 Sw. Crs, approximately half an hour of direct labour and approximately half an hour in preceeding industrial production of materials etc have been used.

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Total number of work hours in different sectors (ref. 89, p. 116).

30 TWh gives

Windpower

15 TWh in locations with more than 7 m/s median wind
1550 plants at 4 MW = 6.2 GW

15 TWh in 6 7 m/s locations approximately 2150 plants at 4 MW = 8.6 GW. Total 14.8 GW.

Investment costs of 4,000 Sw. Crs per kW are assumed (cf section 2.3). A total of 15 GW are installed (equivalent to 30 TWh per year).

Rate of introduction

3

1985 - 90 successively increasing from 50 - 500 MW/year

0.6

The production of windpower mills consists of 65 % manufacturing industry, 30% construction industry, 5% of transportation (114) direct labour 0.0086, total 0.0162 work hours/Cr.

This means that installation of 1 GW unit of windpower per year creates an employment of 34.4 million work hours directly and 64.8 million work hours totally.

These are assumed to cost 2.5 Cr/W (peak power), which is what ERDA aims at for the year 1986. This is equivalent to approximately 300 Crs/m2 (cf section 2.4). 1 m2 gives approximately 100 kWh/year. Solar cells are assumed, for the sake of this calculation, to be imported, which means that they have to be paid for by export of Swedish products. As an example we here calculate with exports from the lumber-, paper-and pulp industries. In the report from the Swedish Council for Energy Production Research (Solenergi i Sverige, NE 1977:21) production of solar cells in Sweden is assumed.

Import of solar cells, which give 1 TWh per year (approximately 10 Mm) is equivalent to 17.1 million work hours directly (e.g. in lumber-, paper- and pulp industry) and 44.7 million work hours totally.

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In addition to this, there are installations etc. A considerable number of the solar cells can very well be of the type where the cells are combined with solar collectors. The costs for electric connections are then the only additional cost. In other cases they can be incorporated into existing housing (roofs and walls).

In these calculations we use a cost of 100 Crs/m2, which is the price for separate mounting (cf section 2.4). This includes the support, mounting, electric installations and ancillary electric equipment. If we assume that the labour need is equivalent to that in construction industry, installation of 1 TWh/year in solar cells is equivalent to 8.8 million work hours directly and 16.2 million work hours totally.

Total costs for investments and installation of solar cells, which per year give 1 TWh are 25.9 million work hours directly and 60.9 million work hours totally.

Rate of introduction.

Installation of the equivalent of: 1 TWh/year 1995 - 2001

Preliminary estimates of the price for biomass from energy plantations indicate approximately 150 Sw. Crs ton dry matter (cf section 2.2). This is approximately half the price of pulp wood today. We here assume 300 Sw. Crs/ton and that the total cost is for forestry.

with approximately 5 Mah/ton dry matter and an average yield of
90 Mah, ha this gives 56.7 work hours per ha directly and 87.5
work hours per ha totally. In present forestry there is less
fertilization than what is probably going to be needed in energy
plantations. On the other hand the felling can probably be made less
labour intensive.

An alternative way of estimating the very uncertain costs for biomass from energy plantations is the following. In agriculture and fishery the total work was 316 million hours (66). There are 3 million ha of arable land, which means that on average 105 hours/ha was put into agriculture. Assume that energy plantations are 1,3 as labour intensive. This would be equivalent to 35 hours per ha. The people indirectly occupied (making machines, fertilizers etc) is estimated to be in the same order of magnitude as those directly employed. This would mean approximately 70 work hours per ha.

Rate of plantation

1990 - 2003: 100,000 ha/year

2004 - 2013: 150,000 ha/year

A total of 2.9 million ha is put under plantations. Harvest takes place after 2 years.

The figure 88 work hours per ha totally has been used in our calculations. This gives a total need for 255 million work hours for planting the entire area.

A total of approximately 55 TWh comes from aquatic biomass (algae), straw, reeds, logging waste and domestic solid waste etc. For logging waste the costs are given as 220 - 240 Sw. Crs/ton dry matter (12).