104 8.4 The technical characteristics of Solar Sweden The system is very diversified with many different supply methods. Production and use of biomass dominates and contains energy plantations on land and in the sea, use of straw, reeds, logging waste, lyes etc. Solar heating is used for space heating together with district heating based on plants for combined generation of electricity and heat, fueled with biomass. The electricity sector becomes relatively large and the proportion of electricity larger than today. Electricity is produced from hydro power, wind power, solar cells and in fuel cells and plants for combined generation. By making the latter into relatively small units, they can be located to minimize energy waste, e.g. by using the waste heat for space heating. Methanol, from biomass is introduced into the transport sector. 8.5 Critical development issues for the technology A large share of biomass presupposes reasonable success in present efforts to produce biomass with high productivity. We have utilized solar cells for electricity production. This is a well known but still too costly method for large scale electricity production. Fuel cells, using methanol in the transport sector and gas from biomass in the industry, are fairly well developed but not yet complete. These technical problems have been presumed solvable in order to introduce the system here constructed. Limited success in the development of some area turns interests towards other technologies, the fraction of which then must increase to make construction of a completely renewable system possible. With many failures the system can become economically extremely costly or in other ways impossible. The flexibility however is great and research is at present carried out concerning several methods not included here. Basing Solar Sweden on assumptions concerning the success of technical development etc, is no different from the assumptions made for other alternatives. The environmental problems 105 with coal and the safety and environmental problems of the breeder reactor cycle and certain aspects of its technology also presuppose that technical development will succeed in these areas and that the solutions are accepted. We have made an economic calculation where we have assumed that the costs for the renewable energy system is and remains those that can be foreseen for the 1980's. We find tnat building up such a system is compatible with the previous assumptions concerning doubling of the production of goods and services on the condition that the productivity in society increases by approximately 2% annually. Of this approximately 1/8 refers to the new energy system, and the remaining approximately 7/8 are necessary to increase the production of goods and services. The reason why only a small part of the increased productivity is needed to pay for the energy system is that the cost for energy today is only a small part (approximately 7%) of the total production cost. Even if the energy costs were to increase drastically, it would still take up only a limited part of the resources (106). Thus a renewable energy system does not demand a lower standard of living, but merely that part of the increased productivity is utilized to create such a system. Whether resources ought to be put into this is a political decision, where the advantage of a domestic renewable energy system (independence, small effects on health and the environment etc) must be weighed against these costs and other needs in society. 8.7 Conflicts of interest over Solar Sweden The demand on land is great because of the low intensity of solar radiation. We estimate that approximately 3 million ha are needed, mainly for energy plantations. This needs farsighted planning. Other sectors interested in utilizing the same areas are probably mainly forest industry and recreation. Therefore, an important question is 106 how society should consider the balance between forest industry and energy production in the future (forest industry at present utilizes approximately 23 million ha). Recreation may be somewhat limited by the land use of the energy system. Wind power etc may also meet with resistance from those who own recreational houses near the plants. This can be met now with farsighted planning, which clarifies where such plants may be located. The future energy system regardless of which one society chooses is considerably more expensive than the present. This causes a continous conflict over capital etc. It also means that at each given moment it seems attractive to choose a solution that in the short run is cheaper. It seems, however, clear to us, that postponing the necessary investments to replace oil can only lead to greater economic difficulties. If the investments are postponed, society will have to pay both more expensive oil bills and large investments in capital intensive installation at the same time. 8.8 Design of organizational structures and rules. This area is very important since a renewable energy system means a development which in large measures is different from todays. We have only briefly touched these important questions in this report and will deal more thoroughly with them in the final report of the study "Energy and Society". The energy system we have sketched is domestic and uncertainties concerning the possibilities of importing various energy raw materials therefore does not exist. The energy system assures secure supplies. Balance of payment is not to any large extent influenced. The system is preferable from the environmental point of view by having limited emissions and no increased risks for catastrophic occurences. The use of many different dispersed energy sources makes the system relatively invulnerable. 107 9. POST THE DILEMMA OF DESCRIBING THE FUTURE To replace an energy source that today contributes approximately 70% of the energy supply is not done in a few years. It takes several decades. A system that completely replaces oil can hardly be a reality this side of the turn of the century. Because of inertia in society, we have to discuss conditions that are approximately a quarter of a century distant. Considering what has happened during the previous quarter of the century we might ask whether such a discussion is meaningful. Conditions after the tum of the century are naturally Uncertain and dependent or future measures in society. In this case, it is particularly the results of research and deve'cpment on renewable energy sources that are of interest. What results can such work give? The answer is naturally that one cannot know with any certainty. Two observations are however possible. - Different persons have a different perception of the world. Things that do not fit into this picture are disregarded. So far the development of the energy sector has been towards increasingly concentrated energy production - approximately 1,000 Mw power stations. The renewable energy sources involve utilizing a realtively dispersed flow of energy which is only to a relatively Thmited extent manageable by man. It is thus not strange that persons whose view of life has been shaped by the present energy sector do not believe in using solar energy. By this we have not said that they will be proved right or wrong. - For many of the renewable energy technologies it is true that the basic theories and modes of operation have been known a long time. The question that research and development tries to answer is not if it is in principle going to work, but how to design the system in the best way. At the same time there are naturally also new ideas not yet tested. 108-109 As an example let us take fusion and solar cells. For fusion a large amount of basic research remains and a unit which produces energy can be expected to be demonstrated at the earliest around the turn of the century and at unknown, but probably very high costs. Solar cells on the other hand exist today and work but at too high costs to be acceptable for large scale energy production. With respect to the number and complexity of remaining questions, there is therefore reason today to believe more in their possibilities than in fusion. In order to handle the dilemma of, on the one hand, the long time perspective for introducing technologies and, on the other hand, the difficulty of saying anything about the future system with any degree of certainty, we have chosen the following method. The energy technologies we have chosen are those that today seem to be best known and most promising. The cost estimates used in the calculations are those expected to be true for the 1980's. In this way we have tried to reduce the uncertainties in the total picture presented. There still remains a certain probability or risk for any given renewable energy system to be unrealistic. This probability can never be eliminated in studies of the future and the problem is true for all descriptions of the future. With this method we have, however, tried to minimize the risk. We have therefore not assumed that alternatives, which on paper look attractive, but still are at a basic research stage will play a significant role. In order to paint an entire picture, we have been forced to be precise in many details. We therefore show a picture of the future that seems feasible - one among several possible futures. Our intent is naturally not to claim that the future will look the way we have sketched it, but to give a basis leading to resources in the next years being allocated to find out more about the renewable energy system. Energy policy can now be directed towards a completely renewable energy system. It is, however, too early to say with any assurance whether it will be possible to reach the goal without major conflicts with economic, social and environmental goals. |