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There is no reason to doubt that it will in the future be possible to produce goods in a more efficient manner with a decreased need for labour and also energy. Examples of such increased efficiency could be the use of mini- and micro-computers, industrial robots etc. Biological production methods could become increasingly important through advances in enzyme and bacterial technology. It is possible that rising energy costs can lead to somewhat lowered increase of labour productivity. The growth in productivity also depends on how fast the production systems can be changed towards a more efficient structure. This ties in with, among other things, regional policy and structural changes. The increase in productivity is furthermore dependent on the availability of capital since an increased productivity often means that investments in e.g. machinery are needed.

According to the labour prognosis of the Swedish Central Bureau of Statistics the number of persons on the labour market is expected to rise (92) and thus the total number of work hours if a 40 hour working week is maintained. If, as we have done here, the total volume of work is assumed to be the same in 2015 as in 1975, this should mean a working week of approximately 35 hours.

In summary, we conclude that even if a renewable energy system should turn out to be considerably more expensive than today's energy system, it still imposes insignificant restrictions on the development of society. The question is thus not whether the material conditions of various groups in society can be improved or not.

In the example we have assumed a certain ratio of goods and services. Others are naturally also possible. There is however hardly reason to enter into a more detailed discussion.

The productivity need increase with only about 1/4 of 1 percent per year in order to meet the costs for the energy system outlined here (with the assumptions made here about costs etc) compared to a case

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where the energy system requires an unchanged amount of work. (equal to today's).

The entire discussion here deals with how society should utilize the increased production. Previously the increased productivity in industry has been used to produce more goods and to move labour from industry to the service sector (hospital, child care etc). Naturally there are several tasks that compete for the results of increased productivity. A domestic renewable energy system will demand only a small fraction of the increase in productivity. It is not clear what other energy alternatives would cost, but they too can be assumed to make demands on increasing resources.

If production does not turn out to increase due to structural problems etc. (cf today's situation) investments in renewable energy technologies would be one way of limiting unemployment and at the same time produce something that society needs. (Compare road building financed by the National Labour Market Board). For many of the jobs no unique, special competence is needed. They are normal construction and engineering tasks.

Thus a renewable energy system does not demand a lowered material standard but only that part of the increased productivity is used for such a system. Whether resources ought to be put into this is a political decision. The advantages that a domestic renewable energy system offers (independence, limited effects on environment and health) must be weighed against these costs and other needs that society has.

We will now briefly deal with what the assumed rate of introduction will mean. In the previous section we noted that the labour resources do not constitute any absolute restriction.

The maximum rate of introduction of wind generation - 250 4-MW wind turbines annually creates a demand of 11,000 tons of steel per year (93). The production of steel in Sweden in 1973 was approximately 10 Mtons (94), i.e. approximately 1% is needed for developing windpower. 250 wind generators is equal to 5 generators per week which can be compared to the construction of approximately 300 flats per day, which was the level at the beginning of the 1970's. The maximum rate of introduction of solar heating creates a demand for 15 Mm2 glass per year. This is approximately three times the present Swedish production of glass. Thus this needs to increase drastically. The availability of raw material for glass ought, however, not to be a restriction.

As mentioned previously there is very little information on what rates of expansion are possible or reasonable. We are here concerned with the problems of building up a considerable number of new industries to produce wind generators, solar heating equipment, solar cells, fuel cells etc. and systems for handling biomass (95). The possibilities for this expansion to occur naturally depend on how far in advance measures are planned - reserving land, design systems, building up of production capacity, training of manpower etc. The earliest time for large scale introduction of certain renewable energy sources has been assumed to be 1990 or even later for other sources. On-going development and demonstration programs will show if earlier or later introduction is realistic. The times of introduction estimated by the Council for Energy Production Research seem to be somewhat earlier than we have assumed here (96).

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In the entire renewable energy system the rate of expansion assumed is not quite 6 % annually between 1990 and 2015. For comparison one can note that the oil consumption of Western Europe increased by 8.3 % annually during 1955 1970, and in Sweden by approximately 10% per year during 1950 - 1970 (97). In the housing sector the increase in Sweden was from 62,000 flats 1958 to 106,000 flats in 1968, i.e. a rate of increase of approximately 5.5% annually (98).

Since society faces investments in a new energy system a comparison between the possibilities for expansion of different kinds of energy is of interest. This question urgently needs closer analysis. It may be that it is possible to introduce relatively simple but numerous units faster than a few complex units. If this is true a renewable energy system, when it has been developed could expand faster than e.g. a nuclear system.

In conclusion it seems to us that the rates of expansion mentioned seem definitely feasible. However, this is on condition that some of the research and development now going on largely fulfil the expectations. It also presupposes that the Swedish energy policy is consciously directed towards a renewable system. Some of the obstacles on the road are discussed in the next chapter.

If a transition towards Solar Sweden is to be carried out the Swedish energy system faces great changes. This is evident from i.e. figure 4.1. The time perspective is necessarily long several decades. In that perspective some investments that we make today will remain for a longer time than might be necessary for the transition. Others will be worn out and replaced. Both kinds influence the characteristics of the transition system. We therefore must think in terms of the dynamics of the system: when will different things occur, what are the effects of concrete actions towards the goal? The questions can be phrased somewhat differently. What are the consequences of giving the energy system a direction towards Solar Sweden?

This must be discussed in several different dimensions. In the supply system a technical fitting together of energy raw materials and energy carriers must be made. It may be difficult to change either of these, to change both at the same time on a large scale is even more difficult. Thus we are interested in possible links between today's energy system and that of the future via the use of coal, gas and peat during a transition period of some to a few decades. The design of the user side is also linked with the energy carrier and must be changed at the same rate as the carrier. The rules and regulations for both supply and use of energy, the organizational structure, conflicting interests of various kinds etc all influence the possibilities for development towards a Solar Sweden.

Technical and economic problems are related to the size of the system. We are here concerned with problems relating to the building up and running of large systems not only small scale use of single