To achieve this, you must know more about the relations between our future society and its need for energy. Different prospects i.e. a higher stand of living, rising salaries, full employment, environmental safety, a more even distribution of income etc. All these facts to some extent influence the future energy need. In our report "Energy in Transition" (1) we make a summary of our preceeding reports about these questions. In the report we also discuss the long-term energy policy, what future options are available and their limitations. There are a number of different energy sources to be considered, which in various ways can be coupled to our future energy needs. Along with the nuclear power extensions for breeder reactors and advanced coal technologies, various renewable energy sources have also been rapidly developed. In this report we discuss the characteristics of an energy system, completely based on renewable sources. We also discuss some point of interest in a possible direction of policy towards such an energy system. We do not, however, compare other alternatives to future energy systems. We address these questions in our Final Report.* We would specially like to thank Per Anders Bergendahl, Lars Bergman, Lars Emmelin, Ola Johansson, Lars Kristoferson, Per Ragnarson and Lars Rey for stimulating discussions and critical comments of a draft of the report. We wish to thank Lars Emmelin for the translation also Margareta Grånäs and Ulla Malmquist for their transcriptions of many versions of the report. * Måns Lönnroth, Thomas B Johansson, Peter Steen: "Solar or nuclear to choose energy future" (preliminary title), published by Pergamon Press during 1978. In this report we will discuss a domestic, renewable energy system. In a previous report (1) we have discussed the transition away from oil towards other energy sources that the energy systems are facing. Society is now facing the task of beginning to invest in a new energy system. In the long run this system can contain either renewable energy sources, coal or breeder reactors or any combination of these. We have previously claimed that steps must now be taken to open the door for the renewable energy sources otherwise they will never become an important alternative. It is, nowever, not enough to develop new technology. It is also necessary to avoid a too strong commitment to other energy sources in order to give the new technology a chance of being used. This argument is interesting only if renewable energy sources have a potential comparable with those many people believe coal and nuclear power to have. The purpose of this study is to discuss tnis potential. We will therefore first snow that the energy flows in Sweden, deriving from the sun, by themselves are of such a magnitude that they alone could supply us with sufficient energy. We thereafter discuss different aspects of a system based only on these energy flows to identify important problems which would appear if Sweden were to choose to aim its energy policy towards this goal. A common argument against the renewable energy sources is that they would be too expensive. We will therefore attempt a rough analysis of the economic consequences of a renewable system. Against this background a further discussion can be made concerning alternative designs of the energy system, its interrelationship with the development of other sectors of society, the needs for research, development and demonstration, organization and legislation etc. 2 The energy system, like many other sectors of society, has a high inertia and we must reckon with decades for major changes to be made. The rather small hope of maintaining the world oil production means that one such major change is just around the corner. The alternatives that seem to exist for the next few decades must be analysed in an impartial manner. Only in this way can the interaction between these future alternatives and different interests in society be brought to light in time and give results in the long range measures that can be taken now. Such measures can be pure matters of energy policy, as e.g. the direction of research, development and demonstration or measures to influence energy use. They can also be measures that e.g. influence the long term development of production and consumption. This report is structured in the following way. The rest of the introduction gives a short background to our present energy situation. In chapter 2 the energy flows deriving from the sun are dealt with in a summary fashion. The present state of the art for a number of renewable energy sources is also dealt with. The following chapter sketches a possible development of society, which is the background against which the energy system should be seen. Chapter 4 discusses the components of a renewable energy system for the early part of the 21st century. Environmental problems and safety aspects are dealt with in chapter 5. The introduction of such an energy system is discussed with respect to economy in chapter 6 and with respect to conflicting interests during a transition period in chapter 7. Chapter 8 is a summary of the discussion. |