44

designing and tracking the progress of Federal programs, and can provide some assurance to current and potential manufacturers of solar equipment that there will be a continuing Federal effort to expand solar markets. A national goal would also help to dramatize the importance of solar energy, and galvanize the Nation behind the Administration's plan. Indeed, many individuals and groups might judge the Federal solar effort less on its individual initiatives than on its overall goal.

However, a national goal also has several drawbacks. Selecting a realistic goal can be difficult because predictions about future energy supply, demand and prices are extremely uncertain. A goal set corresponding to the projected impact of the first two policy options may not appear sufficiently ambitious. But a high goal which is unrelated to the estimated impact of government programs will be difficult to justify. Moreover, if the goal raises expectations that cannot be fulfilled, the Federal government will ultimately lose credibility with the public. Any goal that is set would have to be reassessed as new technological developments occur and changes take place in the energy market.

B. What Should the Goal be?

If there is to be a goal, what should it be? Numerical goals have appeal as concrete, understandable targets. But if national efforts are not successful, they become unpleasant reminders of how much we have missed the mark.

If a quantitative goal is set, there are at least three possibilities - 15 or 25 quads of total demand displaced by solar energy in the year 2000, or some number in between. The 15 and 25 quad goals would correspond roughly to Options 2 and 3. A goal based on Option 1 would be close to what would happen even without an expanded Federal effort, and as such would have little practical value as a target for government policy.

15 Quads: A 15 quad goal can be supported by Option
2 programs (and some additional efforts in the future)
if oil prices rise to $32 a barrel in the year 2000.
At $25 a barrel this figure would be closer to 12-13
quads. The disadvantage of the 15 quad goal is that
the interested public may conclude it is too modest to
demonstrate a national commitment. Certainly, the
Nation's leading solar advocates will probably view it
as inadequate and would prefer no goal to one set
this low. A goal which is perceived as being too low
would probably be counter-productive in terms of
gaining public support.

45

18 to 20 Quads: A goal somewhere in the range of 18 to
20 quads could be supported by a policy which combined
programs from Options 2 and 3. Alternatively, such a
goal might be justified by selecting Option 2 and
indicating that new initiatives will be adopted to the
extent they are warranted by future conditions, and
that strong support from industry and state and local
governments will be essential to achieve this goal.
For example, technologies that are not ready for
commercialization at this time might be given financial
incentives in the future when they are close to being
economic. A goal between 18 and 20 quads, corresponding
to roughly 20 percent of total energy demand from
renewables in the year 2000, would demonstrate a major
Federal commitment to solar development, provide strong
stimulus to the solar industry, and appeal to a broad
spectrum of those concerned with solar energy. Such a
goal would not be easy to achieve, and could create
pressures for subsequent calls on the budget. Although
such pressures will exist in any case, creation of a
goal will make it more difficult for the Administration
to control budget add-ons.

25 Quads: A 25 quad goal, which corresponds most
closely to Option 3, would create the most favorable
climate to stimulate accelerated use of solar energy.
A 25 quad goal would imply a major national commitment
to solar development. As a goal, however, 25 quads is
pushing the upper limit of what is achievable, and the
Federal role would be far-reaching and costly (approxi-
mately $40 billion more than current and planned
programs between 1980 and 1985). If this goal cannot
be attained by the programs actually selected, the goal
will be difficult to justify to Congress and the
Nation. Moreover, if the public does not believe the
Administration's goal can be achieved, the government's
program will have little credibility.

Whatever the Federal goal might ultimately be, it is important that the government reassess the target over the course of time as more information is obtained about the potential of solar energy.

It is also important that the government not deceive itself about the nature of its own role. Federal actions alone cannot ensure widespread solar use. Many barriers and Opportunities occur at state and local leveis, and actions at all levels of government and by large numbers of individuals and groups will certainly be required to achieve significant solar penetration.

The Secretariat for Future Studies was organized in 1973 after the
recommendation of a royal commission chaired by the then Minister of
Disarmament in the Swedish Government, Alva Myrdal. The commission
report was published in 1972 and has been translated into English
("To choose a future").

The Secretariat for Future Studies was originally attached to the Prime Minister's Office. In 1975 an Executive Committee was appointed consisting of members who represent all political parties in the Swedish Parliament. This Committee (and the Secretariat) is now working under the formal responsibility of the Ministry of Education.

The Secretariat has so far sponsored four projects: "Energy and society", "Sweden in the world society", "Resources and raw materials" and "Working life in the future".

The projects are organized as research teams but with strong links to different ministries. All projects are formally independent. Roughly four, five professionals are attached on a full-time basis together with part-time consultants mainly from the universities. The links to the ministries are in the form of reference groups, where analyses, background material, etc., are discussed. The final conclusions are the responsibility of the project groups alone. Money is granted at the start and the projects usually run for two or three years. The first round of projects is scheduled to be completed during 1978.

The project "Energy and society" originated in 1974 and work started in 1975. A series of reports have been published, covering different topics such as energy and economic growth, different environmental aspects, energy analysis, the nuclear fuel cycle, etc. All of them are published in Swedish, but some material is also available in English.

The reports are circulated though a subscription system to a large readership, ranging from government agencies, members of Parliament, political parties and schools to newspapers, private companies and individuals. Moreover, the press coverage is rather substantial.

The future study "Energy and Society" is primarily attempting to understand the conditions for the future energy policy and how to avoid being committed to one or other energy source and thereby creating freedom of action in the energy field. The fundamental point is that society faces a transition away from oil and towards one or more long-term energy sources.