Trust for the Future

RESEARCH QUESTIONS

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The following questions are an indication of the range of issues involved in the assets trust fund proposal. A variety of research methods and data-gathering tools will be necessary to find useful answers.

Domestic Issues:

1. What is the precedent?

2. How would establishment of a fund affect Congressional appropriations for specific resources programs?

3. Is there any reason why Congress should not continue to appropriate money annually, as is now the case with the Land and Water Conservation Fund and the Historic Preservation Fund, or is there merit in severing it from the appropriations process?

4. What is the historical perspective?

5. What would be the likely return on the corpus while protecting its value from inflation?

6. When should the return on the fund be allocated between federal
agencies and the states?

International Implications:

1. Historically, what have been the consequences for nations that depleted their natural resources endowment?

2. Which nations or jurisdictions today are depleting their natural
resources endowment to directly fund their operating budgets?

3. Which nations or jurisdictions are depleting their natural
resources endowment but are developing a trust fund?

4. What nations or jurisdictions are funding broad social programs through liquidation of natural assests? When the assets are depleted and the social programs end, will the likely disruption have the potential for serious harm to our interests?

5. What are the activities of the some of the best existing funds? How is the corpus invested? How are the earnings used?

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Scholarly Papers to be Commissioned by Trust for the Future

A. Using available econometric techniques predict the future of our
natural resource wealth.

B. Analyze the concepts of intergenerational equity and intertemporal fairness as related to this issue.

C. Determine how much money would be available in the corpus if such a policy had been in effect since the first days of the Republic.

D. Determine how much money would be available in the corpus if such a policy had been in effect since 1945, 1955, 1965, and 1975.

E. Evaluate the impact of the various trust fund forms currently
functioning on a state level.

Note: Good work has already been done by the Lincoln Institute of Land Policy for the Western Legislative Conference on this subject. An update is in order, and our proposal includes efforts to stay in touch with the states.

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Project Outline for 1985-1987

A. Objective 1: Assess the members of Congress as to their understanding of the concept.

To achieve this objective, the following tasks will be completed:

Our current research indicates that almost twenty states have laws on the books which protect their patrimony. We think it is important that the members of Congress who represent those states understand this clearly. They have also been selected to be the first group of members on whom the concept is tested.

2. May 15-June 15, 1985

Calculate results, revise questionnaire and technique.

3. June 15-August 15, 1985

Seek additional responses from interested members. Solicit help from nationwide network currently available (State Liaison Officers). Calculate results, record responses, and review program.

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B. Objective II: Communications Study
Outline for Communications Study

The study contains six major components:

1.

2.

3.

A thorough search of existing literature concerning diffusion and
implementation of innovative political concepts.

Data-Gathering Project #1: a relatively small sample telephone survey of
the mass audience using both open-ended questions and attitude response
questions. This phase has the following research goals:

determine existing attitudes and predispositions toward
environmental concerns

b. determine existing attitudes toward the utilization of natural

resources

C. determine direction and power of existing attitudes toward

concepts of intergenerational equity

d. develop a list of words, concepts, and labels that people most often use in discussing these issues.

Target Date: July, 1985

DATA-GATHERING PROJECT #2: an experimental study using students in a
large lecture class at the University of Tennessee, a comparative
treatments experiment. Using the words and concepts derived from
Project *1, the study would compare the relative power of several
persuasive/informational messages in several different media. The
theoretical base would be Mobilizing Information. The basic question
would be: is MI a valuable tool in attitude formation and behavioral
change? Research goals:

8. determine the most effective message format to use
b. determine the most effective channel (medium) to use
C. determine the relative value of MI in opinion formation

Target Date: October, 1985

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4.

5.

DATA-GATHERING PROJECT #3: a Gallileo study of perceptions of budgetary
and environmental issues using a random sample and a telephone
questionnaire. Gallileo methods provide for the creation of a perceptual
map of public opinion on a variety of subjects and, through the
"message-generator" feature, allows the research team to create the most
appropriate messages to "move" public perceptions relative to other
issues. Research goals:

a.

b.

determine current relative positions of the electorate

produce messages designed to move the electorate public opinion closer to the NATF position.

Target Date: December, 1985

An intensive review of findings from all three projects and the existing literature.

identification of the target audiences likely to have the most impact

b. specific messages for appropriate channels

C.

relative cost effectiveness of different messages and channels