Library of Congress Catalog Card Number: 79-600216 National Bureau of Standards Special Publication 569 U.S. GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE For sale by the Superintendent of Documents, U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington, D.C. 20402 (Add 25 percent additional for other than U.S. mailing) ABSTRACT The Workshop on Validation and Assessment Issues of Energy Models, held at the National Bureau of Standards, Gaithersburg, Maryland (January 10 11, 1979), was funded by the Energy Information Administration of the Department of Energy (DOE), Washington, D. C. Organized by the Bureau's Operations Research Division, the Workshop was designed to be a forum in which the theoretical and applied state-of-the-art of validation and assessment, with emphasis on energy models, could be presented and discussed. Speakers addressed the following areas: DOE's activities in assessment and validation, taxonomy and structure of assessment and validation, the relationship between model assessment and policy research, the Electrical Power Research Institute's Energy Modeling Forum and projects, independent third-party model assessment, the Texas National Energy Modeling Project, management and improvement of the modeling process, complexity of model evaluation, definitions and structure of model assessment approaches, model access and documentation, assessment of specific models by the M.I.T. Energy Laboratory and other groups, energy and econometric models, and sensitivity analysis. This volume documents the Proceedings (papers and discussion) of the Workshop. Keywords: Assessment; documentation; econometric models; energy modeling forum; energy models; evaluation; mathematical Model Assessment and Validation: Issues, Structures, and Energy Information Administration Program Goals -- George M. Lady... Assessing the ICF Coal and Electric Utilities Model Neil L. Goldman and James Gruhl... Developing, Improving, and Assessing the ICF Coal and Electric Validation: A Modern Day Snipe Hunt? Conceptual Difficulties of Validating Models -- Peter W. House and Richard H. Ball.........153 - Reflections on the Model Assessment Process: Perspective Martin L. Baughman.. The Texas National Energy Modeling Project: An Evaluation of EIA's Midrange Energy Forecasting System -- Milton L. Holloway... Assessing Ways to Improve the Utility of Large-Scale Models Validity as a Composite Measure of Goodness The Impact of Assessment on the Modeling Process CONTENTS (Cont'd.) Assessment and Selection of Models for Energy and Economic Analysis Edward A. Hudson and Dale W. Jorgenson... Econometric Models and Their Assessment for Policy: Some New Diagnostics Applied to Translog Energy Demand in Manufacturing Validating the Hirst Residential Energy Use/Mid-Range Energy Forecasting System Interface Frank Hopkins and Lewis Rubin.....525 |