Validation and Assessment Issues of Energy Models: Proceedings of a Workshop ...

That leads to the second point. I make this because, obviously, the conference was sponsored in part by DOE and we have EPRI here, as well as several other institutions that are concerned with this kind of research. It seems to me that, given a number of comments that were made, both positive, as well as cautious, that, for the time being, that is for the next few years, the institutions involved here should do everything that they are capable of doing to further lots of model-building efforts, and to try to home in on one or two or three and to make them perfect. The best thing that could come out of all of this is the competition among scientists and model builders for approaches and ideas on how to handle these problems. It is really too early to home in.

MR. EVERETT (DOE): I find myself to be mainly a user of models but, also, unfortunately, a caretaker of models that either people on the Panel left me with or certainly other people in this room. At this point, I know the budgetary process is going to be somewhat less than heartening over the next few years and, given that I, myself, and certainly the people within EIA that do most of the analysis of modeling have 50 or 60 of these beasts. How on earth should we choose, given the meager funds that likely will come to this project, which ones we are going dissect, which should come first? The READ model certainly seems to be a very big target at this particular point but, what next? I would like an answer from the Panel on this one.

DR. LADY: Do you want an answer from me, Charles? Assuming that it doesn't take too many more years to figure out what to do, which may be a very brave assumption, it seems sensible to expect that a reasonable approximation of many of the good ideas that have come up today can be completed on the cycle of model development which will be different. Depending upon what you are talking about, something on the order of three or four years. That is an answer. Is that an answer to your question?

DR. GASS: Charlie, you were concerned about the models in being right now, I gather.

DR. WAGNER: One problem I have is there are models that exist that have been used for forecasting and we put our names next to the forecasts, we publish them, and some of those are going to be replaced. Where there was one, there may be three models in a year. Why don't you pick a model that is an embryo at this point and, before we use it and forecast with it, validate it, rather than something that will be entered into the record as perhaps a bad experiment?

DR. LADY: I think that is the idea, but we have to know what to do. Given that we know what to do, or at least have agreement on some things to do, the idea is to embody it in the model development process.

DR. RICHELS: In the case of our first assessment, it was a model that we could assess. If the documentation is not there or if you do not have the cooperation of the modeler, you might as well forget the assessment, at least at this stage of the game.

Secondly, it is the value of information. What is the model being used for? Is it being used for important policy decisions? That is where we find the greatest need for assessment.

DR. GASS: Any other comments from the Panel? Well, I personally would like yes, please?

DR. GLASSEY: I am hearing about the strategies here. Every model developer that is currently under contract to the EIA to do models, must have his models assessed before we pay him.

DR. GASS: That is if we can set the ground rules. Alan, would you like to make a comment? Alan Goldman.

One of them is a distinctly Some of us may have some

DR. GOLDMAN: Two very quick remarks. self-serving suggestion to the Chairman. reactions to this meeting which we were unable so quickly to articulate, or will not articulate now because of the lateness of the hour. Perhaps you might care to declare the proceedings open to late submissions to these remarks.

DR. GASS: Yes, that is definitely true. The deadline is March 31.

DR. GOLDMAN: Okay. My second comment is again as representative of the host institution to thank you for the quality of your discussions from the floor, delivered papers, and zitzfleisch.

DR. GASS: Thank you very much. I would like to thank the Panel, both as a Panel and speakers. I would like to thank the other speakers, and I really would like to thank this tenacious audience for staying with us. Thank you very, very much.