Policy Making in an Era of Global Environmental Change

Front Cover
R. E. Munn, J. W. M. La Rivière, N. van Lookeren Campagne
Springer Science & Business Media, 1996 M11 18 - 225 pages
Major international interdisciplinary research programmes are now underway to increase our understanding of how the Earth System operates and how it is changing through the effects of human activities. Although understanding and predictive capacity are still limited, scientists already agree that significant global changes must be expected in the next 50 years that will affect the capacity of the earth to sustain life. Governments, business and industry have, therefore, come to recognize that scientific knowledge about the changing global environment - as yet incomplete but rapidly evolving - is becoming indispensable for wise long-term policy making, the goal being to design preventive, adaptive and remedial measures. Thus global change science and policy making are engaged in a process of forming a new partnership that is taking shape as further insights evolve. Effective continuous interaction between the partners requires mutual understanding: decision-makers need to understand the unique potential but also the limitations of the results of scientific research in progress while scientists must take into account the priorities and constraints of policy-makers in designing and implementing policies that will promote long-term sustainability of life on this planet. This book contributes in a unique manner to this mutual understanding. For the first time, one book describes both ongoing research in global change and the response process that the research results are evoking. It is of interest to all stakeholders in the scientific community as well as to decision-makers in industry, business and government.

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Contents

Both a Scientific and a Political Issue
1
Examples of Some Recent Global Trends
2
Global Change in the 21st Century
10
What are the Consequent Critical Issues for Science and for Society?
13
2 The Main International Environmental Research Programmes
17
Structure and Manner of Operation
18
Some Other Relevant Research Programmes
19
3 Understanding the Earth System
23
Future Prospects
125
7 Examples of Governmental Responses
127
KnowledgeBuilding Strategies
128
Examples of Some National and Regional Global Change Research Programmes
129
CapacityBuilding Strategies
133
Restoration Strategies
135
Concluding Remarks
136
8 Examples of Responses by Business and Industry
139

Nothing is Permanent Except Change Heraclitus c 500 BC
29
Trapped in the Ice
32
The Carbon Connection
34
Hydrological Drivers
40
Up in the Air
46
Bringing It All Together
50
Selected References
55
4 Understanding the Climate System
57
Introduction the Climate System
58
The Natural Greenhouse Effect
61
Temporal and Spatial Scales of Variability
62
Natural Variability and its Impacts
64
Human Intervention The Enhanced Greenhouse Effect
71
Climate Research International Coordination National Efforts
75
Prospects for Climate Prediction
76
The IPCC Scenarios for Future Climate
80
Potential Impacts of Global Warming
91
Climate Change Research in Service to Society
92
Summary
94
An Introductory Overview
97
Sustainable Development
100
Economic Considerations
104
Longterm Environmental Management
106
Involving the Public
109
6 Intergovernmental Responses
113
The Need for International Assessments of Global Environmental Issues
114
the Climate Change Issue
115
Using Scientific Information to Establish Global Environmental Policy
118
Strategies for Dealing with Global Environmental Change
119
Understanding Forecasting and Detecting Global Change
121
Actions to Follow a Scientific Assessment
123
Business Spokespersons
140
Opportunities for Business
141
The Interface
143
The ICSU Connection
144
Interview with Mr E Van Lennep
145
Interview with Ir N G Retting
148
Interview with Ir O H A Van Royen
151
Interview with In J M H Van Engelshoven
154
Interview with Prof Dr Ir H H Van Den Kroonenberg
156
Interview with Dr P Winsemius
159
Q Environmental Nongovernmental Organizations ENGOS
165
Legitimacy of Environmental NGOs Their Place in Society
166
Environmental Advocacy
167
Addresses of Contributors to this Monograph
169
Addresses of the Main Bodies Active in the Field of Global Environmental Change
170
Address of the International Fund for Global Change Research
172
Addresses and Information on 14 Dutch Businessesthat Assisted Financially in the 1992 Symposium see Preface by the Sponsors and the Preparation ...
173
Closing Remarks
178
Appendix 3 Methods for Assessing Effects of Global Change on the Biosphere and Society
181
Sectoral Impacts of Global Change
182
The Use of Historical Analogues
184
an integrated assessment based on scenarios
185
Socioeconomic Impact of Sea Level Rise in the Netherlands
186
Concluding Remarks
187
Appendix 4 Instruments for Facilitating the Application of Global Change Research Results to PolicyMaking
189
Environmental Impact Assessment EIA and Cumulative Environmental Assessment CEA
190
Establishing Longterm Environmental Priorities
192
A Canadian Example1
197
Index
219
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