you know, if you look back at the history of, say, quantum mechanics in the early 1920s, it was Einstein, Bohr, Heisenberg, all these people. I am sure if you did a similar analysis, you would probably find something very like that, but in fact these guys hated each other. I mean, they were very, very competitive. And if you look at the 43 authors, I am sure that not all of them like to go out and have a beer together. This is pretty competitive business, and I will tell you, if somebody can find a way to knock down someone else's theory, that is their road to recognition and fame. We all do that. That is part of the game and we really enjoy that part of the game. So yes and no. MR. WHITFIELD. All right. Thank you. My time has expired and I will recognize Mr. Stupak. MR. STUPAK. Mr. Chairman, because of time constraints, I am letting Mr. Waxman go now and I will catch the next round. MR. WAXMAN. Thank you very much, Mr. Stupak and Mr. Chairman. That was an interesting analysis, Dr. North. We are sometimes sheltered by our own politics but it looks like academics have their politics. DR. NORTH. They do. MR. WAXMAN. And I guess we should take that into consideration, but I don't think we doubt all science because experts agree with each other or that they are competing with each other. Is that- DR. NORTH. That is correct. You know, the process works. You know, as they say, it is a little like making sausage. You have heard that one. MR. WAXMAN. On June 7, 2005, 11 National Science academies issued a joint statement calling on world leaders "to acknowledge that the threat of climate change is clear and increasing" and in their joint statement, the science academies of Brazil, Canada, China, France, Germany, India, Italy, Japan, Russia, the United Kingdom, and the United States declared, "There is now strong evidence that significant global warming is occurring." They also stated that it is likely that most of the warming in recent decades can be attributed to human activities. Mr. Chairman, I would like to ask unanimous consent that this statement from the premiere scientific institutions be placed in the record. MR. WHITFIELD. Without objection. TAB 19 Joint science academies' statement: Global response to climate change Climate change is real There will always be uncertainty in understanding a system as complex as the world's climate. However there is now strong evidence that significant global warming is occurring'. The evidence comes from direct measurements of rising surface air temperatures and subsurface ocean temperatures and from phenomena such as increases in average global sea levels, retreating glaciers, and changes to many physical and biological systems. It is likely that most of the warming in recent decades can be attributed to human activities (IPCC 2001)2. This warming has already ied to changes in the Earth's climate. The existence of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere is vital to life on Earth - in their absence average temperatures would be about 30 centigrade degrees lower than they are today. But human activities are now causing atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases including carbon dioxide, methane, tropospheric ozone, and nitrous oxide- to rise well above pre-industrial levels. Carbon dioxide levels have increased from 280 ppm in 1750 to over 375 ppm today - higher than any previous levels that can be reliably measured (i.e. in the last 420,000 years). Increasing greenhouse gases are causing temperatures to rise; the Earth's surface warmed by approximately 0.6 centigrade degrees over the twentieth century. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) projected that the average global surface temperatures will continue to increase to between 1.4 centigrade degrees and 5.8 centigrade degrees above 1990 levels, by 2100. Reduce the causes of climate change The scientific understanding of climate change is now sufficiently clear to justify nations taking prompt action. It is vital that all nations identify cost-effective steps that they can take now, to contribute to substantial and long-term reduction in net global greenhouse gas emissions. Action taken now to reduce significantly the build-up of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere will lessen the magnitude and rate of climate change. As the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) recognises, a lack of full scientific certainty about some aspects of climate change is not a reason for delaying an immediate response that will, at a reasonable cost, prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system. As nations and economies develop over the next 25 years, world primary energy demand is estimated to increase by almost 60%. Fossil fuels, which are responsible for the majority of carbon dioxide emissions produced by human activities, provide valuable resources for many nations and are projected to provide 85% of this demand (IEA 2004)3. Minimising the amount of this carbon dioxide reaching the potentially cost-effective technological options that could contribute to stabilising greenhouse gas concentrations. These are at various stages of research and development. However barriers to their broad deployment still need to be overcome. Carbon dioxide can remain in the atmosphere for many decades. Even with possible lowered emission rates we will be experiencing the impacts of climate change throughout the 21st century and beyond. Failure to implement significant reductions in net greenhouse gas emissions now, will make the job much harder in the future. Prepare for the consequences of climate change Major parts of the climate system respond slowly to changes in greenhouse gas concentrations. Even if greenhouse gas emissions were stabilised instantly at today's levels, the climate would still continue to change as it adapts to the increased emission of recent decades. Further changes in climate are therefore unavoidable. Nations must prepare for them. The projected changes in climate will have both beneficial and adverse effects at the regional level, for example on water resources, agriculture, natural ecosystems and human health. The larger and faster the changes in climate, the more likely it is that adverse effects will dominate. Increasing temperatures are likely to increase the frequency and severity of weather events such as heat waves and heavy rainfall. Increasing temperatures could lead to large-scale effects such as melting of large ice sheets (with major impacts on low-lying regions throughout the world). The IPCC estimates that the combined effects of ice melting and sea water expansion from ocean warming are projected to cause the global mean sea-level to rise by between 0.1 and 0.9 metres between 1990 and 2100. In Bangladesh alone, a 0.5 metre sea-level rise would place about 6 million people at risk from flooding. Developing nations that lack the infrastructure or resources to respond to the impacts of climate change will be particularly affected. It is clear that many of the world's poorest people are likely to suffer the most from climate change. Long-term global efforts to create a more healthy, prosperous and sustainable world may be severely hindered by changes in the climate. The task of devising and implementing strategies to adapt to the consequences of climate change will require worldwide collaborative inputs from a wide range of experts, including physical and natural scientists, engineers, social scientists, medical scientists, those in the humanities, business leaders and economists. • Launch an international study5 to explore scientificallyinformed targets for atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations, and their associated emissions scenarios, that will enable nations to avoid impacts deemed unacceptable. Identify cost-effective steps that can be taken now to contribute to substantial and long-term reduction in net global greenhouse gas emissions. Recognise that delayed action will increase the risk of adverse environmental effects and will likely incur a greater cost. • Work with developing nations to build a scientific and technological capacity best suited to their circumstances, enabling them to develop innovative solutions to mitigate and adapt to the adverse effects of climate change, while explicitly recognising their legitimate development rights. • Show leadership in developing and deploying clean energy technologies and approaches to energy efficiency, and share this knowledge with all other nations. • Mobilise the science and technology community to enhance research and development efforts, which can better inform climate change decisions. Notes and references 1 This statement concentrates on climate change associated with global warming. We use the UNFCCC definition of climate change, which is 'a change of climate which is attributed directly or indirectly to human activity that alters the composition of the global atmosphere and which is in addition to natural climate variability observed over comparable time periods'. 2 IPCC (2001). Third Assessment Report. We recognise the international scientific consensus of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). 3 IEA (2004). World Energy Outlook 4. Although long-term projections of future world energy demand and supply are highly uncertain, the World Energy Outlook produced by the International Energy Agency (IEA) is a useful source of information about possible future energy scenarios. 4 With special emphasis on the first principle of the UNFCCC, which states: The Parties should protect the climate system for the benefit of present and future generations of humankind, on the basis of equity and in accordance with their common but differentiated responsibilities and respective capabilities. Accordingly, the developed country Parties should take the lead in combating climate change and the adverse effects thereof. 5 Recognising and building on the IPCC's ongoing work on emission scenarios. MR. WAXMAN. Dr. North, I would like to begin with you. Do you strong evidence that significant global warming is occurring and that it is likely that most of the warming can be attributed to human activities? DR. NORTH. Yes, I do. MR. WAXMAN. And Dr. North, the national science academies also state that the scientific understanding of climate change is sufficiently clear to justify nations taking prompt action. They say it is important that we take cost-effective steps now to reduce our emissions or else it will be more costly to act in the future. Again, do you agree with that statement? DR. NORTH. Well, now you are stepping a little bit beyond my role here. I will talk about the science but what we ought to do is somebody else's business. MR. WAXMAN. I am concerned that some are going to hear about Dr. Wegman's statistical criticism of the early Mann study and somehow conclude that global warming is still an open question. In order to put the overall importance of this issue in context, I would like to ask you about some of the other evidence of global warming. Are the Mann studies the basis for the ice core studies that give us data going back hundreds of thousands of years? DR. NORTH. No. MR. WAXMAN. Are the Mann studies the basis for the recorded atmospheric temperature records that we have maintained for the last 150 years? DR. NORTH. No. MR. WAXMAN. Dr. Crowley is going to testify later today that although the Mann study was influential in the IPCC's 2001 assessment, the studies, which demonstrated that the instrumental record and the models could not be reconciled without an anthropogenic greenhouse influence, were even more influential. Were those studies based on the Mann studies? DR. NORTH. I don't think so. I am sorry. I didn't hear everything you said. MR. WAXMAN. Well, Dr. Crowley is going to tell us that-- MR. WAXMAN. --although the Mann study was influential with the IPCC's 2001- DR. NORTH. Well, it was part of the report. It was a part of the report. MR. WAXMAN. Right. DR. NORTH. But as I have said, it is only one of several lines of evidence that are used in drawing those conclusions. MR. WAXMAN. And so therefore you have further studies that seem DR. NORTH. There are other studies, and they were shown on the graphic that I showed you. MR. WAXMAN. And they weren't based on the Mann studies, were they? DR. NORTH. They were not based on the Mann studies. Now, there are cases where they use the same data so there is some correlation and that is what I think Dr. Wegman referred to and that is correct. See, there is only a limited amount of data, so- MR. WAXMAN. In 2005, two research teams led by scientists at the Scripps Institution for Oceanography and NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies published studies in Science magazine that concluded that not only is the Earth's air and land warming, but the oceans are warming as well and that heating has penetrated more than 1,000 feet into the ocean's depth. Jim Hanson, director of the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies and the lead author of one of the studies, called these findings "the smoking gun of global warming." Dr. North, are these studies in any way based on the Mann 1998 and 1999 studies? DR. NORTH. No, not at all. MR. WAXMAN. In July 2005, Nature magazine published a study by Dr. Kerry Emanuel of M.I.T. who found that the destructive power of hurricanes is increasing along with ocean temperatures. Dr. Emanuel found that the total destructive potential of hurricanes has increased markedly during the last 30 years. While natural cycles in the pattern of ocean circulation likely played a role, Dr. Emanuel attributes at least part of the increase to global warming. Just last month the publication Geophysical Research Letters published a new study by Dr. Kevin Trenberth and Dr. Dennis Shea of the National Center for Atmospheric Research which concludes that global warming fueled hurricane intensity in the waters of the tropical North Atlantic in 2005, while natural cycles were only a minor factor. Dr. North, are these papers by Dr. Emanuel, Dr. Trenberth, and Dr. Shea in any way based upon Mann's 1998 and 1999 studies? DR. NORTH. No, no. MR. WAXMAN. Drs. Mears and Wentz published an article in Science magazine in August 2005 that resolves a longstanding conflict in the global warming debate. For years global warming naysayers, based on the work of Dr. John Christy at the University of Alabama, have argued that satellite data showed that the Earth's atmosphere was warming far slower than the Earth's surface. These scientists reanalyzed the raw satellite data and found that the lower atmosphere is actually warming slightly faster than the surface in agreement with the theory and models. These scientists found that the previous analysis of the satellite |