Harris, Seymour E. The price of prosperity. I. Spending and employment after the war. New republic (N. Y.), January 15, 1945, v. 112: 73-76. AP2.N624 Contents: Analysis of estimates of post-war gross national product and its relationship to full employment. Hoffman, Paul G. How can we make sure of post-war jobs for all? Free world (N. Y.), Mar. 1945, v. 9: 67-69. D410.F78 Conclusion: To achieve full employment, we must achieve a gross output of from $155 to $170 billion. Kaplan, A. D. H. The liquidation of war production: Cancelation of war contracts and disposal of government-owned plants and surpluses. New York, McGraw-Hill, 1944. 133 p. (Committee for economic development research study.) HC106.4.K34 Conclusion: Our national product must be (as a conservative estimate) 40% above 1940 if returning servicemen and essential breadwinners on war work are to be absorbed productively. See especially p. 3. Livingston, S. Morris. Markets after the war; an approach to their analysis. Washington, Govt. print. off., 1943. 46 p. (78th Congress, 1st session, Senate Doc. 40). HF5415.U5 1943 Contents: Analysis of total business volume after the war under conditions of high level employment, effect of the war on this volume, and opportunities for individual businesses in post-war markets. Conclusion: If the civilian labor force which will be available after the war is effectively used, with unemployment held to a practical minimum and with 1910 hours of work, the U. S. has demonstrated a capacity to produce $142 billion of goods and services in 1940 prices ($165 billion in 1912 prices) as against an output of $97 billion in 1940. Lutz, Harley L. Post-war budgets and taxes. Tax review (N. Y.), Feb. 1945, v. 6:5-9. Conclusion: Deficit financing can produce any national income desired, but such a national income would have “all the substantial and enduring qualitites of a cloudbank." Mayer, Joseph. Post-war national income: Its probable magnitude. Washington, Brookings institution, 1944. 34 p. (Pamphlet No. 55.) HC106.4.M36 Contents: Reviews estimates of national income and gross national product, and discusses the methods of arriving at estimates. Conclusion: Making certain assumptions, a national income of $123.1 billion is estimated for 1947. Nathan, Robert R. Mobilizing for abundance. New York, Whittlesey house, 1944. 228 p. HC106.4.N32 Conclusion: To provide job opportunities to all workers, gross national production must total at least $150 billion. National industrial conference board. Measuring and projecting national income. New York, the Board, March 1945. 27 p. (Studies in business policy, no. 5.) Contents: Addresses and discussion on national income presented at a meeting of the NICB on January 18, 1945. Speakers represented the Department of Commerce, Social Security Board, General Motors Corporation. Estimates as to post-war gross national product, net income, income payments, and disposable income are made and compared. Prosperity-How to get it-How to keep it. New republic (N. Y.), Nov. 27, 1944 (Special section), v. 111: 707-726. AP2.N624 Contents: Discusses the various factors that would contribute to an estimated gross national product of $170.1 billion in 1950. See especially p. 711-713. Sloan, Alfred P. The importance of jobs. Academy of political science, New York. Proceedings, Jan. 1945, v. 21: 197-210. H31.A4 Conclusion: Assuming a high state of employment, we might raise our national income to about $100 billion in terms of 1935-39 dollars or $125 billion in 1943 dollars. See especially p. 129. Wallace, Henry A. Statement reported in New York times, Jan. 16, 1944: 44. Conclusion: The $100 billion national income in the plans of some businessmen is not enough for full employment. $170 billion to $200 billion in goods and services can be had. Willkie, Wendell L. Address reported in New York times, Feb. 3, 1944: 14. Conclusion: To meet the needs of our budget, national income should never fall below $120 billion at 1942 prices. 4. Is Ours a Mature Economy? Collected here are some references to the pros and cons of the issue whether or not we have a "mature" economy. The answer to the question may be important in considering the steps to be taken for promoting full employment. Bissell, Richard. Post-war private investing and public spending. In Postwar economic problems, ed. by Seymour E. Harris, New York, McGraw-Hill, 1943, chap. v, p. 83–110. HD82.H29 Contents: Summarizes the case against the contention that economic maturity was the cause of the depression during the 1930's. Conclusion: The overwhelming social need for capital expenditures is such that it makes no sense to say that modern technology demands a low investment, high consumption economy, and that the era of capital accumulation came to an end in 1929. Fine, Sherwood M. Public spending and post-war economic policy. New York, Columbia university press, 1944. 177 p. HC106.4.F44 1944 Contents: A critical appraisal of the secular stagnation theory of Pro. Hansen. Hansen, Alvin H. Fiscal policy and business cycles. W. W. Norton, 1941. 462 p. HB3711.H315 Contents: An exposition of the role of the government in a mature economy. Full recovery or stagnation. New York, W. W. Norton, 1938. 350 p. HC106.3.H253 Contents: A discussion in 1938 of the question whether, with the stoppage in 1937 of recovery from the depression, we faced full recovery or stagnation. Johnston, Eric. America unlimited. Garden city, Doubleday, Doran, 1944. 254 p. HC106.4.J64 Conclusion: It is denied that we face a choice between a congealed old order and some experimental new order. The bogey of a dwindling population is answered by the fact that we have millions whose standard of living should be raised. We have a background for a prosperity such that there is danger that the prosperity may become runaway. Prosperity-How to get it-How to keep it. New republic (N. Y.), Nov. 27, 1944 (Special section), v. 111: 707-726. AP2.N624 Contents: Summarizes the various factors indicating new sources of jobs. Conclusion: There is no longer a vast land area for settlement nor is there likelihood of great new industries, but a new frontier can be created in regional developments and the rebuilding of cities. See especially p. 708-710. The United States in a new world. III. The domestic economy. Fortune (N. Y.), v. 26, Dec. 1942 (Supplement). 21 p. HF5001.F7 Contents: Briefly reviews theory that we have a mature economy. Conclusion: The evidence is anything but conclusive that ours is a mature economy. See especially p. 8. Walsh, J. Raymond. America's rendezvous with destiny. International post-war problems (N. Y.), Mar. 1944, v. 1: 236–244. Conclusion: We must adjust ourselves to the imperative of a mature economy. Expansion as a principle is dead. 5. The Consumer: His Role, Needs, and Resources Items here refer to the role of the consumer in promoting full employment, what his needs are that should be filled, and what his resources are for paying for what he needs. Beveridge, William H. Full employment in a free society. New York, W. W. Norton, 1945. 429 p. HD5767.B42 1945 Conclusion: Some expansion of private expenditure, brought about by & redistribution of income increasing the propensity to consume, should be part of a full employment policy. However, it cannot be the main instrument of that policy. See especially p. 22-23, 184–187. Chamber of Commerce of the United States. Third progress report of a consumer survey to measure post-war buying intent for the period immediately following the war's end. Washington, The Chamber, 1943. 20 p. Mimeographed. Contents: Report of a survey through September 1943 on what people would like to buy, or would buy, shortly after the war. Congress of industrial organizations. Political action committee. Jobs for all after the war. New York, CIO Political action committee, 1944. 22 p. HC106.4.C537 Contents: Reviews some of the needs of the people after the war. See especially p. 12–15. Coulter, John L. Post-war fiscal problems and policies. New York, Committee of Americans, Inc., 1945. 105 p. Contents: Enumerates many of the new goods and services the consumer will demand after the war. Conclusion: Considering the increase in number of persons to be supplied, increasing standard of living, fewer persons actually secking work, there would appear to be no excuse for more than ordinary or so-called frictional unemployment. See especially p. 44-51. Findlay, Alexander C. Probable volume of post-war construction. U. S. Bureau of labor statistics, Washington. Monthly labor review. Feb. 1945, v. 60: 261-275. HD8051.A78 Contents: In this Part I (two other parts are to follow), a general forecast is made in considerable detail together with a review of the controlling background. Conclusion: At 1940 cost levels, the total new construction and major repairs for the first 5 post-war years will average $10.9 billion annually, Mainte divided as follows: private $7.9 billion and public-$3.0 billion. Halasi, Albert. Will war savings stabilize prosperity? International post-war problems (N. Y.), Sept. 1944, v. 1: 515-523. Contents: Reply to article by W. Woytinsky immediately preceding it in the magazine, critical of Woytinsky's minimizing the significance of governmental compensatory (fiscal) policies in a post-war full-employment program. Howenstine, E. Jay. The economics of demobilization, Washington, Public affairs press, 1944. 336 p. HC106.4.H67 Contents: Reviews the contradictory policies of the government during the immediate post World War I period. Conclusion: Consumer must continue to save for first year after peace, but as conversion progresses an increasing proportion of national income must be spent for consumer goods to sustain full-employment economy. See especially p. 24-26, 41-43, 47, 258, 309–310. Jobs after the war: a series of articles on post-war employment problems. 3. Backlogs and savings. Factory management and maintenance (N. Y.), Dec. 1943, v. 101: 93-96. TK1.13 Contents: Estimates backlog of demand for consumer durable goods and amount of accumulated savings, and discusses how they may affect the employment picture. Molson, Hugh. Full employment and the budget. London, Signpost press, 1944. 20 p. HC256.4.M58 Conclusion: The chief cause of slumps is the failure of savers to use their savings for productive purposes. Question is how to control the amount of savings and secure their investment in capital goods without delay. The simplest expedient to increase purchasing power and to offset excessive private saving is to unbalance the budget. Nathan, Robert R. Mobilizing for abundance. New York, Whittlesey house, 1944. 228 p. HC106.4.N32 Conclusion: As long as buying power is fully spent to buy what is produced, production will be maintained. National planning association. National budgets for full employments. Washington, National planning association, 1945. 96 p. (Planning pamphlets nos. 43 and 44). HC101.N352 No. 43-44 Conclusion: To increase expenditures by individuals, it is necessary primarily to increase people's incomes toward the lower end of the scale, where people use their incomes because they must. Three approaches to increasing individuals' expenditures are: (1) increased purchases by individuals through reducing the proportion of income saved; (2) increasing the share of total income paid to individuals; (3) laying taxes in such manner as not to reduce the effective consuming power of individuals. Conclusion is inescapable that mass production requires a greater number of better consumers. National war labor board, American federation of labor members. Comments... on the public members' report to the President on the modification of the Little Steel formula. March 2, 1945. 12 p. (mimeograph). Contents: An appendix (p. 11-12) estimates on the basis of the Department of Commerce study, "Markets after the war," that consumer buying power will be 13 billion dollars short of that needed for full production and full employment at present wage rates. Slichter, Sumner H. Jobs after the war. Atlantic monthly (Boston), Oct. 1944, v. 174: 87-91. AP2.A8 Contents: Discussion of consumer needs and demand and their effect on employment after the war. Taylor, Amos E. Economic adjustments from war to peace. Commercial and financial chronicle (N. Y.), Mar. 1, 1944, v. 161: 930, 956. HG1.C2 Contents: Consumers have saved about $100 billion, while business has about $40 billion in cash and government bonds. Latin-American countries especially will have large American balances with which to buy goods. Walsh, J. Raymond. America's rendezvous with destiny. International post-war problems (N. Y.), Mar. 1944, v. 1: 236-244. Conclusion: We must consume much more, save much less, or we shall lapse into a poverty induced by our own great capacities to create abundance. Woytinsky, Wladimir S. Prospects of permanent full employment; the chances for full employment in post-war America. International post-war problems (N. Y.), Sept. 1944, v. 1: 498-515. Conclusion: The key to lasting prosperity in post-war America is in gradual utilization of war savings by individuals and business. War savings will represent a source of inflationary danger which will require a system of carefully planned economic controls, including a foresighted national wage policy. Wright, David M. The creation of purchasing power. Cambridge, Harvard university press, 1944. 251 p. HB3723.W7 1942 Contents: A study of ways of increasing purchasing power to combat cyclical disturbances and a mature economy. B. Government The role of the government in promoting full employment is the general subject of the writings listed here. One of the subdivisions is given over exclusively to the Full Employment Bill. Other subdivisions are concerned with public works, social security, monetary and fiscal policy. The relations of government to business and labor are not included here but rather are listed under succeeding titles. The subheads used are the following: 1. Role of the Government. 2. The Full Employment Bill. 3. Government Planning. 4. Public Works. 5. Social Security (except Unemployment Compensation). 7. Fiscal Policy (except Taxation). 8. Tax Policy. 1. Role of Government The principal works of an over-all nature pointing out the role that government can or should play are collected here. The more specific articles covering a particular aspect of the government role are not here, but are classified under particular headings throughout the bibliography. Abramson, Adolph G. The problem of full employment. Harvard business review, Spring 1944, v. 22: 337-345. HF5001.H3 Contents: Discussion of the proper role of government with relation to the problem of employment and liberty. Conclusion: The government should assume the responsibility of preventing mass unemployment; private individuals, either singly or in groups, should devise means for achieving full and uninterrupted employment. |