Worst-Case ScenariosHarvard University Press, 2007 - 340 pages Nuclear bombs in suitcases, anthrax bacilli in ventilators, tsunamis and meteors, avian flu, scorchingly hot temperatures: nightmares that were once the plot of Hollywood movies are now frighteningly real possibilities. How can we steer a path between willful inaction and reckless overreaction? |
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... probability judgments , and these very decisions suggest that people assign probabilities and do not operate under circumstances of uncertainty . Milton Fried- man , for example , writes of the risk - uncertainty distinction that “ I ...
... probability judgments ; and this is surely true for hazards involving terrorism , climate change , and avian flu , as well as more mundane hazards.68 If this is so , it is hard to say that we can infer , from subjective estimates ...
... probability concept ( as developed especially by Savage , 1954 ) : probability is simply degree of belief ... [ Because we never know true objective probabilities , d ] ecision - makers are ... never in Knight's world of risk but ...
Contents
Introduction | 1 |
Of Terrorism and Climate Change | 17 |
A Tale of Two Protocols | 71 |
Copyright | |
7 other sections not shown