HENRY M. JACKSON, Chairman COMMITTEE ON INTERIOR AND UNITED STATES SENATE PURSUANT TO S. Res. 45 THE NATIONAL FUELS AND ENERGY POLICY STUDY Serial No. 94-4 (92-94) Printed for the use of the U.S. GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE SENATE RESOLUTION 45 NATIONAL FUELS AND ENERGY POLICY STUDY This publication is a background document for the National Fuels and Energy Policy Study authorized by Senate Resolution 45, introduced by Senators Jennings Randolph and Henry M. Jackson on February 4, 1971, and considered, amended, and agreed to by the Senate on May 3, 1971. The resolution authorized the Senate Interior and Insular Affairs Committee, and ex-officio members of the Committees on Commerce and on Public Works and the Joint Committee on Atomic Energy, to make a full and complete investigation and study of National Fuels and Energy Policies. Subsequently, on March 1, 1974, in the furtherance of the purposes of Senate Resolution 45 (92d Congress), the Senate approved the addition of ex-officio members from the Committees on Finance, on Foreign Relations, on Government Operations, and on Labor and Public Welfare, also. GRENVILLE GARSIDE, Special Counsel and Staff Director D. MICHAEL HARVEY, Deputy Chief Counsel MEMORANDUM OF THE CHAIRMAN To Members and Ex Officio Members of the National Fuels and Energy Policy Study (S. Res. 45, 92d Congress), Committee on Interior and Insular Affairs: At my request the staff of the National Fuels and Energy Policy Study has prepared this analysis of the costs to be imposed on the American people by implementing the energy proposals advanced by the Administration. In preparing these estimates the staff critically examined the work of numerous outside experts-from the Administration, the Library of Congress, the academic community, other Congressional staff members, and elsewhere. I believe that the results of their work, presented here, represent as close to a consensus as one can hope to develop in a limited time on such a complex subject. Whatever minor differences may remain among the experts, it is clear that the impact of the Ford program would be staggering. Whether or not the American economy can absorb a shock of this magnitude now-or at any time-is a question Congress and the Nation must carefully consider. The announcement of an 8.2 percent unemployment rate for January-the highest rate since 1941-makes clear how deepseated our economic problems are. Obviously, alternatives for reducing energy conservation and other energy proposals must be viewed in light of our present economic environment. Testimony received by the Committee on the impacts of the Administration's program is printed as an appendix to this staff analysis. HENRY M. JACKSON, Chairman. (III) CONTENTS Page II 11480 2 24 Memorandum of the Chairman.. Summary Program to be implemented by Executive order. Program proposed by the President to Congress.. Impact of Ford energy program on cunsumers in various income groups___ I. 3-month phase-in cost: Imported oil--- II. Annual cost of Presidentially implemented energy program (measures that do not require legislation). III. Impact of $1 per barrel OPEC price increase_. IV. Annual cost of Presidentially implemented energy program (includ- V. Fossil fuel prices for electricity generation_ VII. Energy use by households-- VIII. Increased energy costs for households by income: direct and indirect energy purchases_ APPENDIX TESTIMONY PRESENTED TO THE SENATE COMMITTEE ON INTERIOR, AND IN- Charles R. Owens, president, Charles Owens & Associates__ John G. Buckley, vice president, Northeast Petroleum Industries, Inc___ Ben H. Fuqua, senior vice president, Florida Power & Light Co-‒‒‒ Guy W. Nichols, president and chief executive officer, New England Electric |