NOTE: Chapter II, which follows, is in draft form. A completed final version has been promised by COG for inclusion in the final report. CHAPTER II FUTURE LAND USE AND HIGHWAY SYSTEM A. FUTURE LAND USE ASSUMPTIONS The Metropolitan Washington Council of Governments (COG) for 1990. was responsible for preparing regional land use activity forecasts During 1972 COG had prepared a series of incremental land use forecasts using a mathematical computer-based model known as EMPIRIC.1 The model assumed an economic forecast of total regional growth in terms of land activity, and predicted by small area, the change in shares of growth for households and jobs during that growth period, the allocation of activity growth was influenced by various assumed policies affecting growth among which was the projected long range highway and transit system. The forecasts used in this study are focussed on an Empiric run known as Alternative 6,2. Transportation facilities were assumed to be those embodied in the adopted Long Range Transportation Plan for the National Capital Region.2 Generally, the plan assumed construction of the Adopted Regional Transit System (98 miles) plus extensions then planned by WMATA. The highway system was projected to comprise several additional major freeways such as the Outer Beltway and the completion of Interstate 66. This major increase in the quality of the transportation system resulted in substantial increases in forecasted suburban growth. This particular forecast was the latest in a series of EMPIRIC model runs, and the results were extensively reviewed by COG and its member 1 "Empiric" Activity Allocation Model Application to the Washington Metropolitan Region. Peat Marwick, Mitchel & Co. December 1972. 2 A Long Range Transportation Plan for the National Capital Region. June 20, 1973. Metropolitan Washington Council of Governments/ governments. As a result of these reviews, a joint resolution was passed by COG's Land Use Policy Committee and the Transportation Planning Board. In effect this resolution authorized the use of Alternative 6.2 modified results except where local governments provided their own forecasts. The projections used in this study incorporated those local modifications and the resultant set of numbers is known as 6.2 modified. These projections were then reduced slightly to reflect anticipated 1990 conditions. summarized the set of forecasts used in the Net Income Analysis Study. Significant increases in population and employment were forecasted for the WMATA transit zone. Table 2 summarizes the projected growth in activity between 1972 and 1990. Table 1 Since the technical analyses for the NIA Study was initiated in early 1974, the Alternative 6.2 modified forecasts have been re-evaluated in the light of markedly decreased growth rates. A revised set of forecasts is again being developed at COG as part of the Cooperative Forecasting Process.4 Early indications are that the revised forecasts for 1990 will be substantially lower than those previously developed for planning purposes identified as Alternative 6.2 modified. For the cost analysis, a projection was made of cost escalation from the 1974 study year through 1976. Beyond 1976, however, all cost and revenue analyses were carried out in terms of 1976 constant dollars with no differential between fare and operating cost escalation. The results of the financial analysis were presented at the WMATA-sponsored Airlie House Conference in November, 1974. During 1975, supplemental analysis and documentation took place. In addition to the overall system analysis, the study also developed data for the various elements contained in the system cost allocation formula specified in the WMATA compact. The final purpose of the study was to update data for the planning and design of stations and routes based on the revised land use forecasts prepared by COG. The following chapters in this report summarize the results of each major stage of the analysis in the sequence in which they were carried out. A series of nine working papers prepared for this project describe the methodology and results in more detail. The land use and travel demand forecasts are described in documents prepared by or for COG. A complete list of these sources is contained in Appendix B. |