We also have what we call award programs, recognition programs. A lot of companies will actually undertake these activities because they want to be recognized for their contribution. Mr. COSTELLO. Mr. Chairman, thank you. PARTNERSHIP FOR A NEW GENERATION OF VEHICLES: EPA'S Mr. Stolpman, you mentioned PNGV, and EPA's role in PNGV. What are you doing that DOE isn't? Mr. STOLPMAN. Well, DOE really has the lead. We contribute our contribution Chairman CALVERT. Is the car over in your place? I've been looking for that car. Mr. STOLPMAN. Well, actually there is a car up at our lab in Ann Arbor. And, I'm sure that they would love to have you come on up. I've driven it, and it's not the car, you know-you wouldn't drive this on the street, it's got Plexiglas in the front and the back, etc. Mr. REICHER. We have a car as well, Mr. Chairman, delivered to us by Ford under a research contract. We'd be happy to take you on a drive. Mr. STOLPMAN. This is a cooperative effort. EPA's got a role in this, our expenditures and our role is supportive to the rest of the Administration. Chairman CALVERT. Okay. Thank you. Any other questions? [No response.] Chairman CALVERT. I thank the gentlemen for attending our hearing today and for the Members' attendance. This hearing is adjourned. [Whereupon, at 11:32 a.m., the Subcommittee was adjourned, to reconvene at the call of the Chair.] APPENDIX 1: Answers to Post-Hearing Questions Submitted by Members of the Subcommittee on Energy and Environment COMMITTEE ON SCIENCE SUBCOMMITTEE ON ENERGY AND ENVIRONMENT Hearing on Fiscal Year 2001 Climate Change Budget Authorization Request March 9, 2000 Post-Hearing Questions Submitted to The Honorable D. James Baker Administrator, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, and Under Secretary for Oceans and Atmosphere U.S. Department of Commerce; and Chair, National Science and Technology Council Subcommittee on Global Change Research Post-Hearing Questions Submitted by Chairman Ken Calvert "General Agreement” That Societal Greenhouse Gas Emissions Are Responsible For At Least Part Of The Earth Surface Warming Q1. In your prepared testimony, you stated that "[t]here is now a near unanimous consensus that the surface of the Earth is indeed warming. There is also general agreement that emission of greenhouse gases by society is responsible for at least part of this temperature increase." However, a paper in the December 12, 1999 Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society by Dr. Tim Barnett of the Scripps Institution of Oceanography and colleagues-who include Phil Jones of the University of East Anglia and Ben Santer of Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory-states that "there has been to date no completely convincing demonstration that the anthropogenic effects predicted by advanced climate models have been unambiguously detected in observations. The article also states that "[i]n short, we cannot attribute, at this time, with a high level of statistical significance, the observed changes in global and large-scale regional climate to anthropogenic forcing alone," and that “by most estimates, the anthropogenic signal is currently comparable in magnitude to the upper limits of the natural climate noise." Dr. Barnett and his colleagues are world-renowned climate modeling experts and these comments are hardly a ringing endorsement that there is "general agreement that emission of greenhouse gases by society is responsible for at least part of this temperature increase." Please comment and explain the basis for your statement (i.e., "There is now a near unanimous consensus that the surface of the Earth is indeed warming. There is also general agreement that emission of greenhouse gases by society is responsible for at least part of this temperature increase.”) in advance of the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Al. As indicated in my statement, two distinct questions are posed: (1) Is the surface temperature of the Earth rising? and (2) Is this warming due to human activities? The first question concerns the detection of change; the second concerns the attribution of change. With respect to the detection question, there is substantial evidence that the Earth's surface is warming. Thermometer records over the oceans and land areas of much of the world going back to the mid-19th century indicate a global surface warming of about 1° F over this period, with about one-third coming before the 1940s and the rest since then, especially in the 1990s. Temperatures taken in boreholes in the ground on all continents (except the Antarctic) also indicate strong warming this century, confirming that this is not an urban effect. Tree rings, ice cores, and other proxy records going back 1000 years also indicate the 20th century, and particularly the latter half, are warmer than at any time during this period. And preliminary records going back to the end of the last glacial period also indicate the world is currently unusually warm. The melting of glaciers in many mountainous regions also indicates warming is occurring. Although satellite records of the temperature of the lower 7 miles of the atmosphere, going back only 20 years, do not show comparable warming, the National Research Council's recent report, Reconciling Observations of Global Temperature Change, concurred in the conclusion of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change that the world is warming. Detection of change has been achieved with very high confidence. The question of attribution is more of a challenge to science, especially because we do not have precise records of how natural factors such as the Sun and volcanoes, humaninfluenced factors such as small particles (aerosols), and other factors in addition to greenhouse gases may have influenced the global climate during the industrial period. We also do not know precisely what the Earth's climate would have been like in the absence of human activities, because all of our instrumental records come from after the time at which human activities became important. Nonetheless, a fingerprint approach has been developed that makes a very strong circumstantial case. Increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases are projected to warm the surface and lower atmosphere while cooling the stratosphere- and, in fact, the surface is warming and the stratosphere is cooling (and the lower atmosphere has also warmed over the past 40 years). While there are some indications an increase in solar radiation may have contributed to the warming prior to 1940, if an increase in solar radiation were causing the recent warming, we would expect to see both the upper and lower atmosphere warming instead we see the surface warming while the stratosphere is cooling, indicating greenhouse gases are a more likely cause of the overall change. While a decrease in volcanic eruptions may have also contributed to the warming prior to 1940, there have been major volcanic eruptions during the 1980s and the 1990s, and yet the warming has been very strong. Were the warming merely a natural fluctuation, we would have expected to have seen similar variations in the past, yet the paleoclimate records of the last 1000 years (and for some records even longer) show no similar warming. Adding to this inferential analysis, results from both numerical and empirically calibrated models are indicating that they can explain the warming of the last few decades only if there is a significant component resulting from greenhouse gases. The circumstantial case is very, very strong, with a conclusion that "the balance of evidence suggests a discernible human influence on the global climate." The study by Barnett, et al., was reporting on the status of efforts to go beyond the circumstantial case and provide a full, definitive, quantitative analysis - thus, as is consistent with the scientific tradition, trying to pin down all the details and causal links. This is a very difficult challenge due to limitations with the data over the past 100 years, among other difficulties, and it should not be surprising, and is not inconsistent with my statements and response above, that this illustrious team of authors concludes that they cannot yet unambiguously achieve quantitative attribution with high statistical confidence. Seven of the 11 authors of the Barnett, et al., paper were authors of or contributors to the detection chapter of the 1995 IPCC report. None, to my knowledge, has retreated from the conclusions of that report, and a number of these authors have contributed to the additional evidence developed since that report. Thus, I fully stand behind my statement at the hearing - climate change has been detected, and there is general agreement that society is responsible for at least part of the change, even though a full quantitative explanation of which cause is responsible for exactly how much change remains to be confirmed. Reliance on the National Research Council for Outside Input Q2. A2. It appears that you totally rely on the National Research Council to provide outside input to the U.S. Global Change Research Program. However, most of these panels are composed of people from either Government or academia. What, if anything, are you doing to ensure that you have input from the vast array of business, agriculture, labor, environmental, and industry NGOs that have considerable scientific and technical expertise in the climate change issue? The USGCRP does not receive input only from the National Research Council, although the NRC has, over the years, prepared a large number of reports in response to USGCRP requests. The scientific community, at the individual, agency, national, and international levels, provides input to the USGCRP about what is uncertain, what is worth exploring, and what new scientific issues are emerging. The USGCRP's support of the National Research Council is one way the Program obtains input from the Nation's scientific community, about what the possibilities are and, even more important, about how most effectively to organize a research effort to address an issue. Parallel efforts are supported internationally through our participation in the World Climate Research Programme, the International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme, and the International Human Dimensions Programme. The USGCRP receives substantial additional input about research and observation needs from a variety of sources. These sources range from agency advisory committees and community meetings to inquiries from U.S. negotiators of international environmental agreements and questions from the general public. The National Assessment of the |