Assessment of Climate Change for the Baltic Sea Basin

Front Cover
Springer Science & Business Media, 2008 M01 22 - 474 pages

This book offers an up-to-date overview of the latest scientific findings in regional climate research on the Baltic Sea basin. This includes climate changes in the recent past, climate projections up until 2100 using the most sophisticated regional climate models available, and an assessment of climate change impacts on terrestrial, freshwater and marine ecosystems. The authors demonstrate that the regional climate has already started to change, and will continue to do so.

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Contents

4334 Potential Future Impacts
237
434 Ecosystem Productivity and Carbon Storage
239
4342 Potential Future Impacts
240
435 Forest Productivity
241
4352 Objective of the Assessment
242
4353 Sensitivity of Main Tree Species to Climate Change
243
4354 Impact of Climate Change on Forest Growth and Stocking
244
4355 Conclusion with the Management Implications
245

133 Stationarity of Data Trends Oscillations and Jumps
14
14 Scenarios of Future Climate Change
16
142 Emission Scenarios
19
143 Scenarios of Anthropogenic Global Climate Change
20
144 Regional Anthropogenic Climate Change
22
15 Ongoing Change and Projections for the Baltic Sea Basin A Summary
23
152 Perspectives for Future Climate Change in the Baltic Sea Basin
24
153 Changing Terrestrial Ecosystems
26
154 Changing Marine Ecosystems
28
16 References
31
Past and Current Climate Change
35
2112 Description of Regional Circulation Variations
37
212 Changes in Surface Air Temperature
39
2121 Annual and Seasonal Area Averaged Time Series
41
2122 Information Drawn from the Longest Instrumental Time Series
42
2123 Temperature Trends in Subregions and Relationships with Atmospheric Circulation
44
2124 Mean Daily Maximum and Minimum Temperature Ranges
45
2125 Changes in Seasonality
46
213 Changes in Precipitation
48
2132 Longterm Changes in Precipitation
50
2133 Changes in Number of Precipitation Days
52
2134 Interpretation of the Observed Changes in Precipitation
53
2141 Cloudiness and Sunshine Duration
54
2142 Components of the Radiation Budget
56
215 Changes in Extreme Events
59
2152 Temperature Extremes
60
2153 Precipitation Extremes Droughts and Wet Spells
64
2154 Extreme Winds Storm Indices and Impacts of Strong Winds
66
22 The Hydrological Regime
72
2213 Floods
76
2214 Droughts
77
222 Ice Regime
79
2223 Ice Conditions in Rivers and Lakes in Finland
82
23 The Baltic Sea
87
2311 Temperature
88
2312 Salinity and Saltwater Inflows
93
232 Sea Level
96
2322 Changes in the Sealevel from the 1800s to Today
97
2323 Influence of Atmospheric Circulation
99
2331 Ice Extent
100
2332 Length of the Ice Season
101
2333 Ice Thickness
102
2335 Summary
104
234 Coastal Erosion
105
2342 Middle Part of the South Baltic Sea Coast
106
2343 Southeastern Part of the South Baltic Sea Coast
107
2344 Summary
108
24 Summary of Observed Climate Changes
110
25 References
112
Projections of Future Anthropogenic Climate Change
133
321 Global Warming in the 21st Century
134
322 Geographical Distribution of Anthropogenic Climate Changes
138
323 Global Sea Level Rise
139
Projections from Global Climate Models
140
332 Simulation of Presentday Climate from Global Climate Models
142
333 Projections of Future Climate from Global Climate Models
147
3332 Atmospheric and Oceanic Circulation
149
3333 Largescale Wind
151
334 Probabilistic Projections of Future Climate Using Four Global SRES Scenarios
152
Projections from Statistical Downscaling
156
342 Projections of Future Climate from Statistical Downscaling
157
Projections from Regional Climate Models
159
3512 Regional Climate Models and Anthropogenic Climate Change Experiments
160
352 Projections of Future Climate from Regional Climate Models
161
3522 Precipitation
166
3523 Wind
169
3524 Snow
172
36 Projections of Future Changes in Climate Variability and Extremes for the Baltic Sea Basin
175
3622 Precipitation Extremes
177
3623 Wind Extremes
178
37 Projections of Future Changes in Hydrology for the Baltic Sea Basin
180
373 Country Specific Hydrological Assessment Studies
182
374 Baltic Sea Basinwide Hydrological Assessment
188
3741 Projected Changes in Runoff
189
3742 Projected Changes in Evapotranspiration
193
38 Projections of Future Changes in the Baltic Sea
194
383 Projected Changes in Sea Surface Temperature and Surface Heat Fluxes
195
384 Projected Changes in Sea Level and Wind Waves
196
385 Projected Changes in Salinity and Vertical Overturning Circulation
198
39 Future Development in Projecting Anthropogenic Climate Changes
201
310 Summary of Future Anthropogenic Climate Change Projections
203
311 References
205
Climaterelated Change in Terrestrial and Freshwater Ecosystems
221
42 NonClimatic Drivers of Ecosystem Changes
222
422 Land Use
223
4221 Projected Future Changes in European Land Use
224
4223 Projected Combined Impacts of Land Use and Climate Change on Ecosystems
225
43 Terrestrial Ecosystems
226
4311 Recent and Historical Impacts
227
4312 Potential Future Impacts
229
432 Species and Biome Range Boundaries
230
4321 Methodological Remark
231
4323 Potential Future Impact
234
433 Physiological Tolerance and Stress
235
4332 Plant Resource Allocation
236
436 Arctic Ecosystems
246
4362 Characteristics of Arctic Ecosystems
247
4363 Recent Ecosystem Changes
248
4364 Projected Ecosystem Changes
249
4365 Implications
251
437 Synthesis Climate Change Impacts on Terrestrial Ecosystems of the Baltic Sea Basin
253
44 Freshwater Ecosystems
256
4413 Stratification
257
4416 Impacts of NonClimatic Anthropogenic Drivers
258
4422 Ice
259
4424 Chemical Responses
260
4425 Biological Responses
261
443 Potential Future Impacts
262
4433 Chemical Responses
263
4434 Biological Responses
264
444 Synthesis Climate Change Impacts on Freshwater Ecosystems of the Baltic Sea Basin
265
45 Nutrient Fluxes from Land Ecosystems to the Baltic Sea
266
4512 Change in Land Use and Agricultural Production Intensity
267
4513 Nutrient Losses from Agricultural Catchments
269
4514 Modelling Approaches
270
4515 Influence of Changes in Land Use and Agricultural Intensity on Nutrient Runoff
271
4517 Measures for Further Decrease of Nutrient Flows to the Baltic Sea
274
452 Organic Carbon Export from Boreal and Subarctic Catchments
276
453 Synthesis Climate Change Impacts on Nutrient Fluxes from Land Ecosystems to the Baltic Sea
280
47 Summary
282
48 References
284
Climaterelated Marine Ecosystem Change
309
522 Regional Nutrient Trends
310
53 Contaminants Chemical Pollution
313
532 Contaminant Loads and their Effects in Baltic Sea Organisms
315
533 Climate Change Related Implications
316
54 Bacteria
318
55 Phytoplankton
319
551 Physical and Chemical Factors
320
552 Phytoplankton Trends
321
5522 Cyanobacteria Summer Bloom
322
5523 Other Phytoplankton
324
56 Zooplankton
325
57 Benthos
329
572 Longterm Trends in the Shallow Benthic Zones
330
573 Longterm Trends in the Subhalocline Areas
331
575 Climate Change Related Implications
333
58 Fish
334
582 Effects of Climate Variability and Anthropogenic Climate Change
338
59 Marine Mammals
341
593 Climate Change Consequences for the Baltic Ice Breeding Seals
343
594 Harbour Porpoise and Harbour Seal
344
595 Future Projections
345
5103 Impacts of Earlier Climate Variability
346
5104 Anthropogenic Climate Change Impacts on Birds Predictions
347
5105 Available Studies
348
5107 Phenological Changes
350
5108 Breeding and Population Sizes
351
511 Summary
352
5111 Increase of Nutrients
353
5112 Increase of Temperature
354
5113 Decrease of Salinity
356
512 References
358
A Annexes
379
A112 External Water Budget and Residence Time
382
A12 Atmosphere
386
A122 Surface Air Temperature
388
A124 Clouds
390
A13 Hydrology and Land Surfaces
392
A132 River Basins
393
A133 Lakes and Wetlands
395
A2 The Late Quaternary Development of the Baltic Sea
398
A22 The Glacial to LateGlacial Baltic Sea
399
A23 The Post Glacial Baltic Sea
402
A3 Ecosystem Description
408
A312 External Input
411
A3122 Aquaculture and Eutrophication
420
A313 External Pressures
423
A3132 Tourism
425
A32 Terrestrial and Freshwater Ecosystems
431
A322 Climate and Terrestrial Ecosystems
432
A323 Outline of the BIOMASS Forest Growth Model
434
A324 Outline of the EFISCEN Forest Resource Model
435
A4 Observational Data Used
436
A422 Sea Level Variability
437
A44 Marine Ecosystem Data
438
A442 ICES
439
A45 Observational and Model Data for Anthropogenic Input
440
A5 Data Homogeneity Issues
441
A51 Homogeneity of Temperature Records
442
A53 Homogeneity of Other Climatic Records
443
A61 The SRES Emissions Scenarios
444
A613 B1 Scenario
445
A7 North Atlantic Oscillation and Arctic Oscillation
446
Testing for Trends and Change Points Jumps
449
A82 Serial Dependency and its Effect on the Accuracy of Conventional Tests
451
A83 Prewhitening and Monte Carlo Approaches to Overcome the Serial Dependency Problem
453
A9 References
454
Acronyms and Abbreviations
469
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Page 473 - UNCTAD United Nations Conference on Trade and Development UNDP United Nations Development Programme UNEP United Nations Environment Programme UNESCO United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization...
Page 1 - Climate change" means a change of climate which is attributed directly or indirectly to human activity that alters the composition of the global atmosphere and which is in addition to natural climate variability observed over comparable time periods.
Page 13 - Nevertheless, the balance of evidence suggests that there is a discernible human influence on global climate.
Page 128 - Suursaar U, Jaagus J, Kullas T (2006) Past and future changes in sea level near the Estonian coast in relation to changes in wind climate. Boreal...
Page 456 - Arimoto, R., Church, TM, Ellis, W., Galloway, JN, Hansen, L., Jickells, TD, Knap, AH, Reinhardt, KH, Schneider, B., Soudine, A., Tokos, JJ, Tsunogai, S., Wollast, R., and Zhou, M.
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Page 1 - I usage refers to any change in climate over time whether due to natural variability or as a result of human activity.
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Page 371 - Variation in egg buoyancy of Baltic cod Gadus morhua and its implications for egg survival in prevailing conditions in the Baltic Sea.

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