should hold for the fairly short 1973-77 period. The national projected growth rates for each industry were obtained from the National Planning Association's National Economic Projections Series (Table IV-13). Replacement expenditures are based on an assumed 20-year life with straight equipment renewal.

The capital investment that must be made by 1977 to meet the effluent standards totals $18.7 billion (Table IV-14). The capital to be added (the difference between the total and the capital in-place) is $11.8 billion, of which about 40 percent is expected to be in new plants. The total annual costs, including interest and replacement, is estimated to be $4.5 billion.

The capital requirements were assumed to be invested evenly over the 1973-77 period. While some industries invested in 1972 a greater percentage of the capital needed, none is spending the average amount needed to achieve 1977 standards (Table IV-14).

*Scott, Graham C. U.S. Economic and Demographic Projections: 1972-1981. National Economic Projections (Report No. 72-N-2). National Planning Association, Washington, D.C. January 1973.

TABLE IV-14

COSTS FOR EXISTING AND PROJECTED PLANTS TO MEET 1977 EFFLUENT STANDARDS

* Including capital needed for treatment facilities at new plants as well as existing plants.
† Based on Annual McGraw-Hill Survey of Pollution Control Expenditures, 5th and 6th editions.

State and Regional Distribution of Treatment Cost. Costs to industry of meeting the 1977 effluent standards for existing plants are summarized by EPA Regions and States in Tables IV-15 and IV-16. Feedlots are not included in the tables because geographical breakdown is not available. The Regional summary shows considerable variation. For instance, the costs for Region V (see Figure IV-2) are more than 11 times those of Region VIII. These variations are understandable, given the uneven distribution of industrial activity throughout the Nation. Similarly, there is great variation in costs among the States-New York has projected annual costs 75 times those of Nevada or South Dakota.

TABLE IV-15

COSTS FOR EXISTING PLANTS TO MEET 1977 EFFLUENT STANDARDS, BY REGIONS
(Scenario No. 3)*

State

TABLE IV-16

COSTS FOR EXISTING PLANTS TO MEET 1977 EFFLUENT STANDARDS, BY STATES

The percentage breakdowns of the national totals for industrial wastewater treatment capital costs, total industrial capital costs, industrial wastewater treatment annual costs and value added by manufacturer are shown in Table IV-17 by EPA Regions and in Table IV-18 by States.

While no direct relationship necessarily exists, those areas with a larger share of capital requirements for pollution control than of capital expenses in general might encounter a greater burden in diverting capital to the construction of pollution control facili

+Statistical Abstract of the United States, Department of Commerce. 1972.

ties. Examples of areas with this characteristic are Regions VIII and X, as well as the following States:

Other areas might encounter less of a burden of diverting capital to construction of pollution control facilities, given the capital cost and overall level of investment. Regions II, IV, and V fall into this category, as well as the following States:

Arizona
Connecticut

Indiana

Iowa
Kentucky

Maryland

Michigan
New York

North Carolina
Ohio

Tennessee

Virginia

A similar comparison can be made between annual costs of pollution control and value added by industry. In those areas with relatively higher annual pollution control costs than value added, there may be greater changes in wages, prices, and dividends than in other areas. Areas with relatively high annual pollution control in comparison with value added are Regions VI, VIII, and X, as well as the following States:

Alaska
Hawaii

Idaho

Louisiana

Maine

Montana
New Mexico
Oregon
Washington

Wyoming