The die is thrown here & has turned up war. Doubts whether an accommodation may not yet take place are still entertained by some, but I hold it impossible. Probably the Emperor will encourage negociations during the winter, while no warlike operations may go on, in order to amuse his adversary & lessen their preparations. It is believed the campaign will open on the Scheld. How the other nations of Europe will conduct themselves seems very doubtful. The probability is that France, Prussia, & the Porte will take an active part with the Dutch & Russia with the Germans. It is presumed that England will endeavor to keep out of the scrape. 1. Because she cannot borrow money to take part in it. 2. Because Ireland is likely to give her disturbance. 3. Because her disputes with us are not settled by a full execution of the articles of the treaty, and the hatred of her people towards us has arisen to such a height as to prepare their minds for a recommencement of hostilities should their government find this desirable. Supposing we are not involved in a new contest with Great Britain, this war may possibly renew that disposition in the powers of Europe to treat with us on liberal principles, a disposition which blazed out with enthusiasm on the conclusion of peace, but which had subsided as far below the just level in consequence of the anarchy, & depravation of principle which the British papers have constantly held forth as having taken place among us. I think when it shall become certain that war is to take place, that those nations at least who are engaged in it will be glad to ensure

our neutrality & friendly dispositions by a just treaty. Such a one, or none is our business. With England nothing will produce a treaty but an enforcement of the resolutions of Congress proposing that there should be no trade where there is no treaty. The infatuation of that nation seems really preternatural. If anything will open their eyes it will be an application to the avarice of the merchants who are the very people who have opposed the treaty first meditated, and who have excited the spirit of hostility at present prevailing against us. Deaf to every principle of common sense, insensible to the feelings of man, they firmly believe they shall be permitted by us to keep all the carrying trade and that we shall attempt no act of retaliation because they are pleased to think it our interest not to do So. A gentleman immediately from England dined the other day at the same house with an AmeriThey happened to sit next each other at table and spoke on the subject of our commerce. He had the air of a man of credibility. He said that just before his departure from England he had a conversation with Mr. Pitt, in which Mr. Pitt assured him. the proclamation of which we complain would be passed into an act at the next session of parliament.— In the despatches we send to Congress you will see a great interval between the Spanish Ambassador's answer to us & our reply to him. The reason of our keeping back was the hope that in the meantime. he would get an answer from his Court which would save us the difficulty of answering him. I have

can.

had a hint that they may agree to make New Orleans a free port for our vessels coming down the Missisipi but without permission to us to export our produce thence. All the inadequacies of this to our purpose strike me strongly. Yet I would wish you to sound your acquaintances on this subject & to let me know what they think of it; and whether if nothing more can be obtained this or no treaty, that is to say, this or war would be preferred.-Can nothing be done for young Franklin. He is sensible, discreet, polite, & goodhumored, & fully qualified as a Secretaire d'Ambassade. His grandfather has none annexed to his legation at this Court. He is most sensibly wounded at his grandson's being superseded. Should this war take place it would certainly be acceptable to Congress to receive regular, early, & authentic intelligence of it's operations. In this view would it not be worth while to continue the agency of Dumas. His intelligence has all these qualities. He is undoubtedly in the confidence of some one who has a part in the Dutch government, & who seems to allow him to communicate to us.-Before my arrival here Mr. Barclay in consequence of the powers given him by his commission had made an appointment or two of Consuls for some of the ports of this country: particularly of Franks for Marseilles. He is very anxious to be continued in it & is now there in the exercise of his office. If I have been rightly informed his services & sacrifices during the war have had their merit and I should suppose Congress would not supersede him but on good grounds. I promised

him that I would communicate his wishes to some of my friends that his pretensions might not be set aside for want of being known.-There is an idea here of removing the packets from L'Orient to Havre. This latter may be considered as the port of Paris itself, because the transportation between them is down the Seine in boats & makes scarcely a greater addition to the price than in transportation from a warehouse to the waterside. Paris is the only place at which all the productions & manufactures of France are brought to a point. Mr. Tracy, who is here from Boston has carefully examined into all their manufactures, and finds them of almost every kind, as good as in England, & cheaper generally. This truth once known, & our ships coming hither for those articles which England thinks she alone can furnish us will advantage us first in opening to us double markets, & secondly in the shock it will communicate across the Channel. L'Orient is convenient in war & therefore should be left as it is, a free port. But conveyances from hence thither are by land, long, precarious, & expensive. I think our merchants will turn their views on Havre.-There is here some Frenchman from Philadelphia (perhaps Perée) who has drawn up a visionary scheme of a settlement of French emigrants, 500 in number on the Ohio. He supposes Congress, flattered by the prospect of such an addition to our numbers, will give them 400,000 acres of land, & permit them to continue French subjects. My opinion has been asked, & I have given it, that Congress will make bar

:

gains with nobody, that they will lay down general rules, to which all applicants must conform themselves by applying to the proper offices & not perplexing Congress with their visions that they are sufficiently assured that the land office will absorb all their certificates of public debt, beyond which they have no object but to provide that the new governments shall admit an easy & firm union with the old; & that therefore I did not think they would encourage a settlement in so large a body of strangers whose language, manners & principles were so heterogeneous to ours.-I shall subscribe for you. to the Encyclopedia Methodique. It will be in about 60 vols, & will cost 751 livres equal to 30 English guineas. If you should not chuse to take it, it will be only a sacrifice of the subscription money, which is a guinea & half. The subscription is daily expected to be closed. There is about two fifths of the work now ready to be delivered amounting to about 300 livres. We have taken some pains to find out the sums which the nations of Europe give to the Barbary States to purchase their peace. They will not tell this yet from some glimmerings it appears to be very considerable: and I do expect that they would tax us at one, two, or perhaps three hundred thousand dollars a year. Surely our people will not give this. Would it not be better to offer them an equal treaty. If they refuse, why not go to war with them? Spain, Portugal, Naples, France & Venice are now at war with them. Every part of the Mediterranean therefore would offer us friendly ports. We ought to begin a naval power, if we mean to carry on our own