Preface In February 1999, the Administration sent its fiscal year 2000 budget request to the U.S. Congress. It includes more than $4 billion in programs related to climate change. Nearly $1.8 billion of the funding is proposed for tax incentives, research and development, and other spending for the Climate Change Technology Initiative (CCTI). CCTI includes tax credits to serve as incentives for energy efficiency improvements and renewable technologies for buildings, light-duty vehicles, industry, and electricity generation. Other funding covers research, development, and deployment for energy-efficient and renewable technologies, more efficient generating technologies, and carbon sequestration research. The analysis in this report was undertaken at the request of the Committee on Science of the U.S. House of Representatives. In its request, the Committee asked the Energy Information Administration (EIA) to analyze "the impact of specific policies on the reduction of carbon emissions and their impact on U.S. energy use and prices... in the 2008-2012 time frame," as noted in the first letter in the Appendix. The second letter from the Committee specified that EIA "analyze the impact of the President's Climate Change Technology Initiative, as defined for the 2000 budget, on reducing carbon emissions from the levels forecast in the Annual Energy Outlook 1999 reference case." The projections and quantitative analysis in this report were conducted primarily using the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS), an energy-economy model of U.S. energy markets designed, developed, and maintained by EIA, which is used each year to provide the projections in the Annual Energy Outlook. Chapter 1 of this report provides background discussion of CCTI and the methodology of the analysis. Chapters 2, 3, and 4, respectively. analyze the impacts of the tax credits; research, development, and deployment programs; and funding for accelerated appliance standards proposed in CCTI. The legislation that established EIA in 1977 vested the organization with an element of statutory independence. ELA does not take position on policy questions. It is the responsibility of EIA to provide timely, high quality information and to perform objective, credible analyses in support of the deliberations of both public and private decisionmakers. This report does not purport to represent the official position of the U.S. Department of Energy or the Administration. Energy Information Administration / Analysis of the Climate Change Technology Initiative 11 2 CCTI Tax Initiatives Introduction Background Results Background Methodology and Results Background Results Background. Results Background Results and Discussion Background. Biomass Wind Conclusion 12 12 12 15 16 16 17 20 20 21 22 22 23 23 27 29 29 30 30 31 36 36 37 37 39 39 40 12 Energy Information Administration I Analysis of the Climate Change Technology Initiative Contents (Continued) 3. Research, Development, and Deployment Introduction Buildings. Partnership for Advancing Technology in Housing (PATH) Energy Star Products Million Solar Roofs Energy-Efficient Buildings and Energy Smart Schools Federal Energy Management Program Energy-Efficient Buildings Technologies Industry Background Industries of the Future Industrial Combined Heat and Power Other Programs Transportation.. Partnership for a New Generation of Vehicles Background Analytical Approach Results and Discussion Advanced Diesel Technologies for Light and Heavy Trucks Background Ethanol from Biomass Electricity Generation Fossil Fuel Technologies Efficient Electricity Generating Technologies Carbon Sequestration Renewable Technologies Solar Photovoltaics Wind Geothermal Hydropower Nuclear Power Other Energy-Related Research Hydrogen Fuels High-Temperature Superconductivity Conclusion 4. Energy-Efficient Appliances and Equipment Appendix A. Letters from the Committee on Science Page 45 45 47 47 48 49 50 51 51 52 52 52 53 53 54 54 54 54 55 56 56 57 59 63 66 66 66 69 69 69 70 71 73 74 75 75 76 76 85 Tables Page xii xiii xiv 13 15 18 18 19 20 23 24 25 26 27 29 29 32 32 32 ESI. Summary of Impacts for Selected Climate Change Technology Initiatives. 2010 1. Tax Credit Proposal for Energy-Efficient Building Equipment for Energy-Efficient Building Equipment, 2005, 2010, and 2020 for Energy-Efficient New Homes . 7. Cost Data for CCTI Solar Technologies 8. CCTI Requirements for Qualifying Combined Heat and Power Systems 9. Components of Cogeneration Capacity in the Reference Case, 1999 and 2002 10. Characteristics of Candidate Cogeneration Systems ... 11. Assumed Values for the CHP Investment Payback Acceptance Curve 12. Projected Effects of the CCTI Tax Credit on Traditional Industrial Cogeneration, 2000-2002 13. Projected Effects of the CCTI Tax Credit for Traditional Combined Heat and Power (CHP) Systems, 2005, 2010, and 2020 14. Electric Vehicles Currently Available in U.S. Markets and Announced Dates of New Production Prototypes 15. Light-Duty Vehicle Sales by Technology Type, 1997-2020 16. Light-Duty Vehicle Fuel Consumption by Fuel Type, 1997-2020 17. Transportation Sector Carbon Emissions by Fuel Type, 1997-2020 18. Projected Vehicle Sales and Reductions in Projected Tax Revenues in the CCTI Analysis Case by Vehicle Type, 2002-2006 19. New U.S. Wind Generating Capacity Concurrent with the EPACT Production Tax Credit, 1994-1999 20. Projected Effects of the CCTI Biomass Energy Production Tax Credit, 2005, 2010, and 2020 21. Projected Effects of the CCTI Biomass Energy Co-firing Tax Credit, 2004, 2005, 2010, and 2020 22. Projected Effects of the CCTI Wind Energy Production Tax Credit, 2005, 2010, and 2020 23. Reductions in Energy Use Projected To Result from CCTI Tax Initiatives, 2002-2010 24. Reductions in Carbon Emissions Projected To Result from CCTI Tax Initiatives. 2002-2010 25. Projected Energy Savings and Carbon Emissions Reductions for Successful PATH Program Goals in New Housing. 2005, 2010, and 2020 26. Projected Residential Electricity Savings and Carbon Emissions Reductions for the Energy Star TV/VCR Program in the AEO99 Reference Case, 2005, 2010, and 2020 27. Projected Energy Savings and Carbon Emissions Reductions for Successful Million Solar Roofs Program, 2005, 2010, and 2020.. 28. Light-Duty Vehicle Sales by Technology Type, 1997-2020 29. Light-Duty Vehicle Fuel Consumption by Fuel Type, 1997-2020 30. Transportation Sector Carbon Emissions by Fuel Type, 1997-2020 31. Light Truck Sales, 1997-2020 32. Light-Duty Vehicle Fuel Consumption by Fuel Type, 1997-2020 33. Transportation Sector Carbon Emissions by Fuel Type, 1997-2020 34. Heavy Truck Diesel Technology Characteristics in the Reference Case 35. Heavy Truck Diesel Technology Characteristics in the CCTI Analysis Case 36. Heavy Truck Diesel Fuel Efficiency, 1997-2020 37. Market Penetration of CCTI Proposal Technologies in the CCTI Analysis Case 38. Combined Effects of CCTI Light Truck and Heavy Truck Technology Initiatives, 2005, 2010, and 2020 ..... 39. Ethanol Consumption and Resulting Carbon Emissions Reductions in the Reference Case, 1997, 2005, 2010, and 2020. 40. Projected Uses of Ethanol in the Reference Case, 1997, 2005, 2010, and 2020 33 37 39 40 41 42 43 48 49 50 55 56 56 58 58 58 61 61 62 62 62 65 65 68 71 81 82 83 83 Tablos (Continuod) Page 67 41. Office of Fossil Energy CCTI Funding. 1999 and 2000 " 1 |
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