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Notes and Sources

Table 12. Forecasts of economic growth, 1997-2020 (page 88): AEO99: Table B20. DRI: DRI/McGraw-Hill, simulations T250898, TO250898, and TP250898. WEFA: The WEFA Group, U.S. Energy Outlook (1998). Table 13. Forecasts of world oil prices, 2000-2020 (page 88): AEO99: Tables A1 and C1. DRI: DRI/McGrawHill, World Energy Service: U.S. Outlook (April 1998). IEA CC: International Energy Agency, World Energy Outlook, 1996: Capacity Constraints Case. IEA ES: International Energy Agency, World Energy Outlook, 1996: Energy Savings Case. PEL: Petroleum Economics, Ltd., Long Term Oil and Energy Outlook to 2015 (February 1998). PIRA: PIRA Energy Group, "Retainer Client Seminar" (October 1997). WEFA: The WEFA Group, U.S. Energy Outlook (1998). GRI: Gas Research Institute, GRI Baseline Projection of U.S. Energy Supply and Demand, 1999 Edition (August 1998). NRCan: Natural Resources Canada, Canada's Energy Outlook 1996-2020 (April 1997). BT Alex Brown: The Oil Sector and the Global Economic Slowdown (September 1998). Table 14. Forecasts of average annual growth rates for energy consumption (page 89): AEO99: Table A2. DRI: DRV/McGraw Hill, World Energy Service: U.S. Outlook (April 1998). GRI: Gas Research Institute, GRI Baseline Projection of U.S. Energy Supply and Demand, 1999 Edition (August 1998). WEFA: The WEFA Group, U.S. Energy Outlook (1998). Note: Delivered energy includes petroleum, natural gas, coal, and electricity (excluding generation and transmission losses) consumed in the residential, commercial, industrial, and transportation sectors.

Table 15. Forecasts of average annual growth in residential and commercial energy demand (page 89): AEO99: Table A2. DRI: DRI/McGraw Hill, World Energy Service: U.S. Outlook (April 1998). GRI: Gas Research Institute, GRI Baseline Projection of U.S. Energy Supply and Demand, 1999 Edition (August 1998). WEFA: The WEFA Group, U.S. Energy Outlook (1998). Table 16. Forecasts of average annual growth in industrial energy demand (page 89): AEO99: Table A2. DRI: DRI/McGraw Hill, World Energy Service: U.S. Outlook (April 1998). GRI: Gas Research Institute, GRI Baseline Projection of U.S. Energy Supply and Demand, 1999 Edition (August 1998). WEFA: The WEFA Group, U.S. Energy Outlook (1998).

Table 17. Forecasts of average annual growth in transportation energy demand (page 90): AEO99: Table A2. DRI: DRI/McGraw Hill, World Energy Service: U.S. Outlook (April 1998). GRI: Gas Research Institute, GRI Baseline Projection of U.S. Energy Supply and Demand, 1999 Edition (August 1998). WEFA: The WEFA Group, U.S. Energy Outlook (1998).

Table 18. Comparison of electricity forecasts (page 91): AEO99: AEO99 National Energy Modeling System, runs AEO99B.D100198A, LMAC99.D100198A, and HMAC99.D100198A. WEFA: The WEFA Group, U.S.

Power Outlook (1998). GRI: Gas Research Institute, GRI Baseline Projection of U.S. Energy Supply and Demand, 1999 Edition (August 1998). DRI: DRI/McGraw-Hill, World Energy Service: U.S. Outlook (April 1998).

Table 19. Comparison of natural gas forecasts (page 93): AEO99: Tables B13 and B14. WEFA: The WEFA Group, Natural Gas Outlook (1998). GRI: Gas Research Institute, GRI Baseline Projection of U.S. Energy Supply and Demand, 1999 Edition (August 1998). DRI: DRI/ McGraw-Hill, World Energy Service: U.S. Outlook (April 1998). AGA: American Gas Association, 1998 AGA-TERA Base Case (July 1998).

Table 20. Comparison of petroleum forecasts (page 95): AEO99: Table C11. WEFA: The WEFA Group, U.S. Energy Outlook (1998). GRI: Gas Research Institute, GRI Baseline Projection of U.S. Energy Supply and Demand, 1999 Edition (August 1998). DRI: DRI/McGraw-Hill, World Energy Service: U.S. Outlook (April 1998). IPAA: Independent Petroleum Association of America, IPAA Supply and Demand Committee Long-Run Report (April 1998).

Table 21. Comparison of coal forecasts (page 97): AEO99: Table B16. WEFA: The WEFA Group, U.S. Energy Outlook (1998). GRI/Hill: Gas Research Institute, Final Report, Coal Demand and Price Projections, Vol. I, GRI-98/0053.1 (March 1998), Table 4.3. DRI: DRI McGraw-Hill, World Energy Service: U.S. Outlook (April 1998).

Figure Notes

Note: Tables indicated as sources in these notes refer to the tables in Appendixes A, B, C, and F of this report.

Figure 1. Fuel price projections, 1997-2020: AEO98 and AEO99 compared (page 2): AEO98 Projections: Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook 1998, DOE/EIA-0383(98) (Washington, DC, December 1997). AEO99 Projections: Table A1. Figure 2. Energy consumption by fuel, 1970-2020 (page 4): History: Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Review 1997, DOE/EIA-0384(97) (Washington, DC, July 1998). Projections: Tables A1 and A18. Note: Data for non-electric utility use of renewable energy were collected beginning in 1990. Figure 3. Energy use per capita and per dollar of gross domestic product, 1970-2020 (page 4): History: Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Review 1997, DOE/EIA-0384(97) (Washington, DC, July 1998). Projections: Table A2.

Figure 4. Electricity generation by fuel, 1970-2020 (page 5): History: Energy Information Administration, Form EIA-867, "Annual Nonutility Power Producer Report"; Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Review 1997, DOE/EIA-0384(97) (Washington,

DC, July 1998); and Edison Electric Institute. Projections: Table A8.

Figure 5. Energy production by fuel, 1970-2020 (page 6): History: Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Review 1997, DOE/EIA-0384(97) (Washington, DC, July 1998). Projections: Tables A1 and A18. Note: Data for non-electric utility use of renewable energy were collected beginning in 1990.

Figure 6. Net energy imports by fuel, 1970-2020 (page 6): History: Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Review 1997, DOE/EIA-0384(97) (Washington, DC, July 1998). Projections: Table A1.

Figure 7. U.S. carbon emissions by sector and fuel, 1990-2020 (page 6): History: Energy Information Administration, Emissions of Greenhouse Gases in the United States 1997, DOE/EIA-0573(97) (Washington, DC, October 1998). Projections: Table A19.

Figure 8. World oil price projections in the AEO98 and AEO99 reference cases, 1990-2020 (page 19): History: Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Review 1997, DOE/EIA-0384(97) (Washington, DC, July 1998). Projections: AEO98: Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook 1998, DOE/EIA-0383(98)(Washington, DC, December 1997). AEO99: Table A1.

Figure 9. Oil demand projections for developing Asia in AEO98 and AEO99, 1990-2020 (page 20): Energy Information Administration, Short-Term Energy Outlook, DOE/EIA-0202(98/3Q) (Washington, DC, July 1998). Projections: AEO98: Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook 1998, DOE/EIA0383(98)(Washington, DC, December 1997). AEO99. Table A21.

Figure 10. Projected annual growth in real U.S. exports, 1995-2003 (page 20): History: Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Department of Commerce. Projections: AEO99 National Energy Modeling System, run AEO99B.D100198A.

Figure 11. Renewable electricity generation in two cases, 2020 (page 23): AEO99 National Energy Modeling System, runs AEO99B.D100198A and RPS99.D100698B. Figure 12. Change in average U.S. electricity prices in the Federal RPS sensitivity case from the reference case, 2000-2020 (page 23): AEO99 National Energy Modeling System, runs AEO99B.D100198A and RPS99.D100698B.

Figure 13. Variation from reference case national electricity costs in the Federal RPS sensitivity case, 2005-2020 (page 24): AEO99 National Energy Modeling System, runs AEO99B.D100198A and RPS99.D100698B. Figure 14. Projected U.S. electricity-related carbon emissions in two cases, 1996-2020 (page 24): AEO99 National Energy Modeling System, runs AEO99B. D100198A and RPS99.D100698B.

Notes and Sources

Figure 15. Percentage of time that different plant types set national marginal electricity prices, 2000, 2010, and 2020 (page 25): AEO99 National Energy Modeling System, run COMPETE.D100398A.

Figure 16. Real electricity prices in the United Kingdom after deregulation, 1988-1996 (page 26): United Kingdom Department of Trade and Industry, Digest of the United Kingdom Energy Statistics 1996. Figure 17. Index of real U.S. natural gas transmission and distribution markups by end-use sector, 1985-1996 (page 26): Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Review 1997, DOE/EIA-0384(97) (Washington, DC, July 1998).

Figure 18. Actual 1997 electricity prices by sector and calculated prices with optimal pricing (page 27): AEO99 National Energy Modeling System, runs AEO99B. D100198A and COMPETE.D100398A.

Figure 19. Generation component of electricity prices by end-use sector, 1999-2020 (page 27): AEO99 National Energy Modeling System, run COMPETE. D100398A.

Figure 20. Electricity generation price duration curve for the New England region (page 28): AE099 National Energy Modeling System, run COMPETE. D100398A.

Figure 21. U.S. industrial electricity prices under three fixed cost allocation options, 1999-2020 (page 28): AEO99 National Energy Modeling System, runs AEO99B.D100198A, COMPETE.D100398A, and CMP. D100598A.

Figure 22. U.S. electricity prices by end-use sector in the reference and full competition cases, 19992020 (page 28): History: Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Review 1997, DOE/EIA0384(97) (Washington, DC, July 1998). Projections: AEO99 National Energy Modeling System, COMPETE.D100398A.

Figure 23. U.S. carbon emissions in seven Kyoto Protocol analysis cases, 1990-2020 (page 34): History: Energy Information Administration, Emissions of Greenhouse Gases in the United States 1997, DOE/EIA0573(97) (Washington, DC, October 1998). Projections: Energy Information Administration, Impacts of the Kyoto Protocol on U.S. Energy Markets and Economic Activity, SR/OIAF/98-03 (Washington, DC, October 1998). Figure 24. Carbon prices in six Kyoto Protocol analysis cases, 1996-2020 (page 35): Energy Information Administration, Impacts of the Kyoto Protocol on U.S. Energy Markets and Economic Activity, SR/OIAF/98-03 (Washington, DC, October 1998).

Figure 25. Projected fuel shares of U.S. energy consumption in two Kyoto Protocol analysis cases, 2010 (page 35): Energy Information Administration, Impacts of the Kyoto Protocol on U.S. Energy Markets and Economic Activity, SR/OIAF/98-03 (Washington, DC, October 1998).

Notes and Sources

Figure 26. Annual GDP growth rates in four Kyoto Protocol analysis cases, 2006-2010 (page 36): Energy Information Administration, Impacts of the Kyoto Protocol on U.S. Energy Markets and Economic Activity, SR/OIAF/ 98-03 (Washington, DC, October 1998).

Figure 27. Annual GDP growth rates in four Kyoto Protocol analysis cases, 2005-2020 (page 36): Energy Information Administration, Impacts of the Kyoto Protocol on U.S. Energy Markets and Economic Activity, SR/OIAF/ 98-03 (Washington, DC, October 1998).

Figure 28. Projected carbon prices in four Kyoto Protocol sensitivity analysis cases, 2010 (page 37): Energy Information Administration, Impacts of the Kyoto Protocol on U.S. Energy Markets and Economic Activity, SR/OIAF/98-03 (Washington, DC, October 1998).

Figure 29. U.S. carbon emissions by sector and fuel, 1990-2020 (page 38): History: Energy Information Administration, Emissions of Greenhouse Gases in the United States 1997, DOE/EIA-0573(97) (Washington, DC, October 1998). Projections: Table A19.

Figure 30. U.S. energy intensity in three cases, 19972020 (page 40): Table F5.

Figure 31. U.S. energy consumption in three cases, 1997-2020 (page 40): Table F5.

Figure 32. U.S. carbon emissions in three cases, 1997-2020 (page 41): Table F5.

Figure 33. Average annual real growth rates of economic factors, 1997-2020 (page 44): History: Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Department of Commerce. Projections: AEO99 National Energy Modeling System, run AEO99B.D100198A.

Figure 34. Sectoral composition of GDP growth, 1997-2020 (page 44): History: Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Department of Commerce. Projections: AEO99 National Energy Modeling System, run AEO99B. D100198A.

Figure 35. Average annual real growth rates of economic factors in three cases, 1997-2020 (page 45): History: Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Department of Commerce. Projections: AEO99 National Energy Modeling System, runs AEO99B.D100198A, HMAC99. D100198A, and LMAC99.D100198A.

Figure 36. Annual GDP growth rate for the preceding 20 years, 1970-2020 (page 45): History: Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Department of Commerce. Projections: AEO99 National Energy Modeling System, runs AEO99B.D100198A, HMAC99.D100198A, and

LMAC99.D100198A.

Figure 37. World oil prices in three cases, 1970-2020 (page 46): History: Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Review 1997, DOE/EIA-0384(97) (Washington, DC, July 1998). Projections: Tables Al and C1.

Figure 38. OPEC oil production in three cases, 19702020 (page 46): History: Energy Information Administration, International Petroleum Statistics Report, DOE/EIA-0520(98/08) (Washington, DC, August 1998). Projections: Tables A21 and C21.

Figure 39. Non-OPEC oil production in three cases, 1970-2020 (page 47): History: Energy Information Administration, International Petroleum Statistics Report, DOE/EIA-0520(98/08) (Washington, DC, August 1998). Projections: Tables A21 and C21.

Figure 40. Persian Gulf share of worldwide oil exports, 1965-2020 (page 47): History: Energy Information Administration, International Petroleum Statistics Report, DOE/EIA-0520(98/08) (Washington, DC, August 1998). Projections: AEO99 National Energy Modeling System, runs AEO99B.D100198A, HWOP99. D100298B, and LWOP99.D100298B.

Figure 41. U.S. gross petroleum imports by source, 1997-2020 (page 48): AEO99 National Energy Modeling System, run AEO99B.D100198A; and World Oil, Refining, Logistics, and Demand (WORLD) Model, run AEO99B.

Figure 42. Worldwide refining capacity by region, 1997 and 2020 (page 48): History: Oil and Gas Journal, Energy Database (January 1997). Projections: AEO99 National Energy Modeling System, run AEO99B. D100198A; and World Oil, Refining, Logistics, and Demand (WORLD) Model, run AEO99B.

Figure 43. Primary and delivered energy consumption, excluding transportation use, 1970-2020 (page 49): History: Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Review 1997, DOE/EIA-0384(97) (Washington, DC, July 1998). Projections: Table A2. Figure 44. Energy use per capita and per dollar of gross domestic product, 1970-2020 (page 49): History: Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Review 1997, DOE/EIA-0384(97) (Washington, DC, July 1998). Projections: Table A2.

Figure 45. Primary energy use by fuel, 1970-2020 (page 50): History: Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Review 1997, DOE/EIA-0384(97) (Washington, DC, July 1998). Projections: Table A2.

Figure 46. Primary energy use by sector, 1970-2020 (page 50): History: Energy Information Administration, State Energy Data Report 1995, DOEЛEIA-0214(95) (Washington, DC, December 1997), and preliminary 1996 and 1997 data. Projections: Table A2.

Figure 47. Residential primary energy consump tion by fuel, 1970-2020 (page 51): History: Energy Information Administration, State Energy Data Report 1995, DOE/EIA-0214(95) (Washington, DC, December 1997), and preliminary 1996 and 1997 data. Projections: Table A2.

Figure 48. Residential primary energy consumption by end use, 1990, 1997, 2010, and 2020 (page 51): History: Energy Information Administration, Residential Energy Consumption Survey 1990, DOE/EIA0321(90) (Washington, DC, February 1993). Projections: Table A4.

Figure 49. Efficiency indicators for selected residential appliances, 1998 and 2020 (page 52): Arthur D. Little, Inc., "EIA Technology Forecast Updates," Reference No. 37125 (September 2, 1998), and AEO99 National Energy Modeling System, run AEO99B. D100198A.

Figure 50. Commercial nonrenewable primary energy consumption by fuel, 1970-2020 (page 52): History: Energy Information Administration, State Energy Data Report 1995, DOE/EIA-0214(95) (Washington, DC, December 1997), and preliminary 1996 and 1997 data. Projections: Table A2.

Figure 51. Commercial primary energy consumption by end use, 1997 and 2020 (page 53): Table A5. Figure 52. Industrial primary energy consumption by fuel, 1970-2020 (page 53): History: Energy Information Administration, State Energy Data Report 1995, DOE/EIA-0214(95). Projections: Table A2.

Figure 53. Industrial primary energy consumption by industry category, 1990-2020 (page 54): AEO99 National Energy Modeling System, run AEO99B. D100198A.

Figure 54. Industrial delivered energy intensity by component, 1990-2020 (page 54): AEO99 National Energy Modeling System, run AEO99B.D100198A.

Figure 55. Transportation energy consumption by fuel, 1975, 1997, and 2020 (page 55): History: Energy Information Administration, Short-Term Energy Outlook, DOE/EIA-0202(98/3Q) (Washington DC, July 1998), September update, and State Energy Data Report 1995, DOE/EIA-0214(95) (Washington, DC, December 1997). Projections: Table A2.

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Figure 56. Transportation stock fuel efficiency by mode, 1997-2020 (page 55): AEO99 National Energy Modeling System, run AEO99B.D100198A.

Figure 57. Alternative-fuel vehicle sales by type of demand, 1997-2020 (page 56): AEO99 National Energy Modeling System, run AEO99B.D100198A.

Figure 58. Alternative-fuel light-duty vehicle sales by fuel type, 1997-2020 (page 56): AEO99 National Energy Modeling System, run AEO99B.D100198A.

Figure 59. Variation from reference case primary energy use by sector in two alternative technology cases, 2010, 2015, and 2020 (page 57): Tables A2, F1, F2, F3, and F4.

Figure 60. Variation from reference case primary residential energy use in three alternative cases, 2000-2020 (page 57); Tables A2 and F1.

Notes and Sources

Figure 61. Cost and investment changes for selected residential appliances in the best available technology case, 2000-2020 (page 58): Table A2 and AEO99 National Energy Modeling System, runs AEO99B. D100198A, RSBASE.D100598A, and RSHTEK D100598B.

Figure 62. Present value of investment and savings for residential appliances in the best available technology case, 2000-2020 (page 58): Table A2 and AEO99 National Energy Modeling System, runs AEO99B.D100198A, RSBASE.D100598A, and RSHTEK.

D100598B.

Figure 63. Variation from reference case primary commercial energy use in three alternative cases, 2000-2020 (page 58): Tables A2 and F2.

Figure 64. Industrial primary energy intensity in two alternative technology cases, 1990-2020 (page 59): Tables A2 and F3.

Figure 65. Changes in key components of the transportation sector in two alternative cases, 2020 (page 59): Table A2 and AEO99 National Energy Modeling System, runs AEO99B.D100198A, FZTECH.D100898A, and HITECH. D100898A.

Figure 66. Population, gross domestic product, and electricity sales growth, 1960-2020 (page 60): History: Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Review 1997, DOE/EIA-0384(97) (Washington, DC, July 1998), Projections: Tables A8 and A20. Figure 67. Annual electricity sales by sector, 19702020 (page 60): History: Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Review 1997, DOE/EIA0384(97) (Washington, DC, July 1998). Projections: Table A8.

Figure 68. New generating capacity and retirements, 1996-2020 (page 61): Table A9.

Figure 69. Electricity generation and cogeneration capacity additions by fuel type, 1996-2020 (page 61): Table A9.

Figure 70. Fuel prices to electricity suppliers and electricity price, 1990-2020 (page 62): History: Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Review 1997, DOE/EIA-0384(97) (Washington, DC, July 1998). Projections: Tables A3 and A8.

Figure 71. Electricity prices in five regions in transition to competitive markets, 1997-2020 (page 62): History: Energy Information Administration, Form EIA861, "Annual Electric Utility Report." Projections: AEO99 Modeling System, run AEO99B.D100198A. Figure 72. Electricity generation costs, 2005 and 2020 (page 63): AEO99 National Energy Modeling System, run AEO99B.D100198A.

Figure 73. Average fuel costs for coal- and gas-fired generating plants, 1980-2020 (page 63): History: Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy

Notes and Sources

Review 1997, DOE/EIA-0384(97) (Washington, DC, July 1998). Projections: AEO99 National Energy Modeling System, run AEO99B.D100198A.

Figure 74. Electricity generation by fuel, 1997 and 2020 (page 64): Table A8.

Figure 75. Operable nuclear power capacity by age of plant, 2000, 2010, and 2020 (page 64): AEO99 National Energy Modeling System, run AEO99B. D100198A.

Figure 76. Operable nuclear capacity in three cases, 1996-2020 (page 65): Table F6.

Figure 77. Cumulative new generating capacity by type in two cases, 1997-2020 (page 65): Tables A9 and F7.

Figure 78. Cumulative new generating capacity by type in three cases, 1997-2020 (page 66): Tables A9 and B9.

Figure 79. Cumulative new electricity generating capacity by technology type in three cases, 19972020 (page 66): AEO99 National Energy Modeling System, runs AEO99B.D100198A, HTECEL.D100798A, and LTECEL.D100398A.

Figure 80. Grid-connected electricity generation from renewable energy sources, 1970-2020 (page 67): History: Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Review 1997, DOE/EIA-0384(97) (Washington, DC, July 1998). Projections: Table A17. Note: Data for nonutility producers are not available before 1989. Figure 81. Nonhydroelectric renewable electricity generation by energy source, 1997, 2010, and 2020 (page 67): Table A17.

Figure 82. Nonhydroelectric renewable electricity generation in two cases, 2020 (page 68): Tables A17 and F11.

Figure 83. Wind-powered electricity generating capacity in two cases, 1985-2020 (page 68): 1985-1988: California Energy Commission. 1989-1997: Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Review 1997, DOE/EIA-0384(97) (Washington, DC, July 1998). Projections: Tables A17 and F11.

Figure 84. Lower 48 crude oil wellhead prices, 19702020 (page 69): History: Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Review 1997, DOE/EIA0384(97) (Washington, DC, July 1998). Projections: Tables A15 and C15.

Figure 85. U.S. petroleum consumption in five cases, 1970-2020 (page 69): History: Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Review 1997, DOE/ EIA-0384(97) (Washington, DC, July 1998). Projections: Tables A11, B11, and C11.

Figure 86. Lower 48 natural gas wellhead prices, 1970-2020 (page 69): History: Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Review 1997, DOE/EIA0384(97) (Washington, DC, July 1998). Projections:

Tables Al and B1. Note: Prices are converted to 1997 dollars.

Figure 87. Successful new lower 48 natural gas and oil wells in three cases, 1970-2020 (page 70): History: Energy Information Administration, Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting, computations based on well reports submitted to the American Petroleum Institute. Projections: AEO99 National Energy Modeling System, runs AEO99B.D100198A, LWOP99.D100298B, and

HWOP99.D100298B.

Figure 88. Lower 48 natural gas reserve additions in three cases, 1970-2020 (page 70): 1970-1976: Energy Information Administration, Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting, computations based on well reports submitted to the American Petroleum Institute. 1977-1996: Energy Information Administration, U.S. Crude Oil, Natural Gas, and Natural Gas Liquids Reserves, DOE EIA-0216(96) (Washington, DC, October 1997).1997 and Projections: AEO99 National Energy Modeling System, runs AEO99B.D100198A, LWOP99.D100298B, and

HWOP99.D100298B.

Figure 89. Lower 48 crude oil reserve additions in three cases, 1970-2020 (page 70): 1970-1976: Energy Information Administration, Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting, computations based on well reports submitted to the American Petroleum Institute. 19771996: Energy Information Administration, U.S. Crude Oil, Natural Gas, and Natural Gas Liquids Reserves, DOE/EIA-0216(96) (Washington, DC, October 1997). 1997 and Projections: AEO99 National Energy Modeling System, runs AEO99B.D100198A, LWOP99. D100298B, and HWOP99.D100298B.

Figure 90. Natural gas production by source, 19702020 (page 71): History: Total Production, 1970-1991: Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Review 1993, DOE/EIA-0384(93) (Washington, DC, July 1994). Total Production, 1992-1995: Energy Information Administration, Natural Gas Annual 1995, DOE EIA-0131(95) (Washington, DC, November 1996). Total Production, 1996: Energy Information Administration, Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting. Alaska, 1970-1984: Energy Information Administration, Natural Gas Annual 1985, DOE/EIA-013(85) (Washington, DC, October 1986). Alaska, 1985-1989: Energy Information Administration, Natural Gas Annual 1989, DOE/EIA0131(89) (Washington, DC, September 1990). Alaska, 1990-1995: Energy Information Administration, Natural Gas Annual 1995, DOE/EIA-0131(95) (Washington, DC, November 1996). Alaska, 1996: Energy Information Administration, Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting. Offshore, 1970-1976: Minerals Management Service, Federal Offshore Statistics: 1991. Offshore, 1977-1996: Energy Information Administration, U.S. Crude Oil, Natural Gas, and Natural Gas Liquids Reserves, DOE/EIA-216 (annual reports, 1977-1996). Unconventional Gas, 1978-1986: Energy Information

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