19. Generation component of electricity prices by end-use sector, 1999-2020 20. Electricity generation price duration curve for the New England region.. 21. U.S. industrial electricity prices under three fixed cost allocation options, 1999-2020. 22. U.S. electricity prices by end-use sector in the reference and full competition cases, 1999-2020.. 23. U.S. carbon emissions in seven Kyoto Protocol analysis cases, 1990-2020.. 24. Carbon prices in six Kyoto Protocol analysis cases, 1996-2020.. Figures 1. Fuel price projections, 1997-2020: AEO98 and AEO99 compared.. 2. Energy consumption by fuel, 1970-2020.... 3. Energy use per capita and per dollar of gross domestic product, 1970-2020 4. Electricity generation by fuel, 1970-2020. 5. Energy production by fuel, 1970-2020. . 6. Net energy imports by fuel, 1970-2020. 7. U.S. carbon emissions by sector and fuel, 1990-2020. 8. World oil price projections in the AEO98 and AEO99 reference cases, 1990-2020 9. Oil demand projections for developing Asia in AEO98 and AEO99, 1990-2020. 10. Projected annual growth in real U.S. exports, 1995-2003. 11. Renewable electricity generation in two cases, 2020. 12. Change in average U.S. electricity prices in the Federal RPS sensitivity case from the reference case, 2000-2020.. 13. Variation from reference case national electricity costs in the Federal RPS sensitivity case, 2005-2020 14. Projected U.S. electricity-related carbon emissions in two cases, 1996-2020. 15. Percentage of time that different plant types set national marginal electricity prices, 2000, 2010, and 2020... 16. Real electricity prices in the United Kingdom after deregulation, 1988-1996. 17. Index of real U.S. natural gas transmission and distribution markups by end-use sector, 1985-1996.. 18. Actual 1997 electricity prices by sector and calculated prices with optimal pricing Contents Page 23 24 24 25 26 26 27 27 28 28 28 34 25. Projected fuel shares of U.S. energy consumption in two Kyoto Protocol analysis cases, 26. Annual GDP growth rates in four Kyoto Protocol analysis cases, 2005-2010 2010 35 36 28. Projected carbon prices in four Kyoto Protocol sensitivity analysis cases, 2010 27. Annual GDP growth rates in four Kyoto Protocol analysis cases, 2005-2020 29. U.S. carbon emissions by sector and fuel, 1990-2020.. 30. U.S. energy intensity in three cases, 1997-2020.. 31. U.S. energy consumption in three cases, 1997-2020 32. U.S. carbon emissions in three cases, 1997-2020. 33. Average annual real growth rates of economic factors, 1997-2020. 34. Sectoral composition of GDP growth, 1997-2020. 35. Average annual real growth rates of economic factors in three cases, 1997-2020. 36. Annual GDP growth rate for the preceding 20 years, 1970-2020 37. World oil prices in three cases, 1970-2020 38. OPEC oil production in three cases, 1970-2020 36 42. Worldwide refining capacity by region, 1997 and 2020 43. Primary and delivered energy consumption, excluding transportation use, 1970-2020 44. Energy use per capita and per dollar of gross domestic product, 1970-2020 46. Primary energy use by sector, 1970-2020. 47. Residential primary energy consumption by fuel, 1970-2020 48. Residential primary energy consumption by end use, 1990, 1997, 2010, and 2020. 49. Efficiency indicators for selected residential appliances, 1998 and 2020. 50. Commercial nonrenewable primary energy consumption by fuel, 1970-2020 48 49 49 50 50 51 51 52 52 Contents Figures (continued) 51. Commercial primary energy consumption by end use, 1997 and 2020. 52. Industrial primary energy consumption by fuel, 1970-2020 . . 53. Industrial primary energy consumption by industry category, 1990-2020. 54. Industrial delivered energy intensity by component, 1990-2020 55. Transportation energy consumption by fuel, 1975, 1997, and 2020 56. Transportation stock fuel efficiency by mode, 1997-2020 57. Alternative-fuel vehicle sales by type of demand, 1997-2020 58. Alternative-fuel light-duty vehicle sales by fuel type, 1997-2020. 59. Variation from reference case primary energy use by sector in two alternative technology cases, 2010, 2015, and 2020. 60. Variation from reference case primary residential energy use in three alternative cases, 2000-2020. 61. Cost and investment changes for selected residential appliances in the best available technology case, 2000-2020 62. Present value of investment and savings for residential appliances in the best available technology case, 2000-2020. 63. Variation from reference case primary commercial energy use in three alternative cases, 2000-2020.. 64. Industrial primary energy intensity in two alternative technology cases, 1990-2020. 65. Changes in key components of the transportation sector in two alternative cases, 2020 66. Population, gross domestic product, and electricity sales growth, 1960-2020 67. Annual electricity sales by sector, 1970-2020. 68. New generating capacity and retirements, 1996-2020 69. Electricity generation and cogeneration capacity additions by fuel type, 1996-2020 70. Fuel prices to electricity suppliers and electricity price, 1990-2020. 71. Electricity prices in five regions in transition to competitive markets, 1997-2020 72. Electricity generation costs, 2005 and 2020.. 73. Average fuel costs for coal- and gas-fired generating plants, 1980-2020 74. Electricity generation by fuel, 1997 and 2020 75. Operable nuclear power capacity by age of plant, 2000, 2010, and 2020 76. Operable nuclear capacity in three cases, 1996-2020 77. Cumulative new generating capacity by type in two cases, 1997-2020 78. Cumulative new generating capacity by type in three cases, 1997-2020 81. Nonhydroelectric renewable electricity generation by energy source, 1997, 2010, and 2020 82. Nonhydroelectric renewable electricity generation in two cases, 2020. 67 68 83. Wind-powered electricity generating capacity in two cases, 1985-2020. 68 84. Lower 48 crude oil wellhead prices, 1970-2020 69 86. Lower 48 natural gas wellhead prices, 1970-2020. 85. U.S. petroleum consumption in five cases, 1970-2020. 87. Successful new lower 48 natural gas and oil wells in three cases, 1970-2020 69 69 70 88. Lower 48 natural gas reserve additions in three cases, 1970-2020.. 70 96. Wellhead share of natural gas end-use prices by sector, 1970-2020. 73 97. Lower 48 crude oil and natural gas end-of-year reserves in three cases, 1997-2020. 98. Lower 48 natural gas wellhead prices in three cases, 1970-2020 99. Lower 48 natural gas production in three cases, 1997-2020..... 74 74 75 100. Lower 48 crude oil production in three cases, 1997-2020 101. Crude oil production by source, 1970-2020... 102. Petroleum supply, consumption, and imports, 1970-2020. 103. Share of U.S. petroleum consumption supplied by net imports, 1970-2020. 111. Average minemouth coal prices in three cases, 1997-2020 112. Percent change in coal transportation costs in three cases, 1997-2020 113. Variation from reference case projection of coal demand in two alternative cases, 2020 114. Electricity and other coal consumption, 1970-2020. 115. Non-electricity coal consumption by sector, 1997, 2000, and 2020 118. Carbon emissions by sector, 1990-2020 119. Carbon emissions per capita, 1990-2020. 120. Carbon emissions by fuel, 1990-2020 121. Carbon emissions from electricity generation by fuel, 1990-2020. 122. Sulfur dioxide emissions from electricity generation, 1990-2020 123. Nitrogen oxide emissions from electricity generation, 1995-2020. As we present the projections in the Annual Energy Outlook 1999 (AEO99), it is important to clarify what these projections represent. While the reference case projections do not hypothesize radical changes in energy markets and energy-using and producing technologies, they do assume continuing market changes and improvements in energy technologies, derived from past trends. The Energy Information Administration (EIA) endeavors to represent current energy market conditions, both domestic and worldwide, and their impacts on future energy trends. An important example of such transitory issues is the ongoing economic crisis in East Asia, which currently is depressing world oil demand and prices and domestic oil production. Another is the continuing restructuring of the U.S. electricity industry and the movement to competitive pricing of electricity. Both of these topics are featured in AEO99, and they are included in the reference case projections. In addition to the longer-term impacts of current market transitions, the reference case projections also include the impacts of a number of potential changes in energy markets-most notably, technology. Substantial productivity improvements and other technological advances are assumed for the fossil fuel supply sectors, in accordance with recent historical trends, accounting in part for the decline of coal prices and the relatively modest increases in oil and natural gas prices in the projections. The projections also incorporate all new and advanced energy-consuming and generating technologies that are assumed with a reasonable degree of confidence to be available by 2020. As a result, energy intensity-the amount of energy used for each dollar of output in the economy-declines by an average of 1 percent a year through 2020. In contrast, from 1986 to 1996, energy intensity was essentially flat. Because the future cannot be known with certainty, it is possible that any of the assumptions, including the availability and characteristics of technology, Administrator's Message may be too optimistic or pessimistic. For that reason, AEO99 includes a wide range of alternative cases examining the effects of variations in many key assumptions. As a policy-neutral organization, EIA does not incorporate future changes in energy-related legislation, regulation, or policy into its projections. Because of this neutrality and the "most likely" nature of the energy trends, the reference case projections provide a solid baseline against which a variety of alternative policies and assumptions can be analyzed and evaluated. One example of the analytical work performed by ELA relative to its reference projections over the past several years is the recent report, Impacts of the Kyoto Protocol on U.S. Energy Markets and Economic Activity, prepared at the request of the U.S. House of Representatives Committee on Science. Other recent work includes: • Analysis of S. 687, the Electric System Public Benefits Protection Act of 1997, at the request of Senator James M. Jeffords |